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UNC

North Carolina 42 at Georgia Tech 46

GT
2023 · Week 9 · Oct 28, 2023 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+5.8GT 22.4%Haynes King pass complete to BrettSeither for 35 yds for a TD (AidanBirr KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 14 · Q2 6:53
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:53 · Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 35 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior−23.1Home team on offense−4.3Garbage-time factor−1.8Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:46: Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 14 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +11.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:02: Jamal Haynes run for 4 yds for a TD (Haynes King pass to Malik Rutherford for Two-Point Conversion) — GT win probability +23.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 11:13: Drake Maye pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 35 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +16.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:40: Dontae Smith run for 70 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +21.1 pts (now 37%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:28: Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 5 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +41.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 12:33GT 4th & 8 at GT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:40GT 4th & 2 at GT 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:11GT 4th & 3 at UNC 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−1.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:57UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:53GT 4th & 2 at UNC 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    19.5%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:51UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:59UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:26GT 4th & 10 at GT 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:52UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:00UNC 4th & 7 at GT 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−1.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    52.5%−17.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:31UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:30UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:32GT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:24UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:53GT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:46GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:45UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:03UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:02GT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    30.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:13UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:40GT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:28GT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2717% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 9 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
17.3%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the GT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
17.3%
Haynes King run for 2 yds to the GT 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
17.3%
Haynes King run for no gain to the GT 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
17.3%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
18.4%
David Shanahan punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0282% → 82%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
18.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
18.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 14 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
18.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the GT 45Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+17
18.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 17 yds to the GT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
18.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the GT 19Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+8
18.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the GT 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
18.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the GT 10Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
18.2%
North Carolina Penalty, Holding Illegal Forward Pass on MAYE, Drake enforced (Drake Maye) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+14
18.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 14 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:5119% → 20%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.7%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
18.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the GT 28Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
18.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 10 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
18.8%
HAYNES, Jamal rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the GT41 (ALLEN, Marcus). PENALTY GT Holding on FUSILE, Joe enforced 10 yards from the GT38 to the GT28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
18.7%
Trey Cooley run for 5 yds to the GT 33Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+7
18.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 7 yds to the GT 40Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
18.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Trey Cooley for 6 yds to the GT 46Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
19.5%
Jamal Haynes run for no gain to the GT 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:1081% → 83%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
18.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the GT 39Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
18.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the GT 37Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+9
18.8%
British Brooks run for 9 yds to the GT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
18.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the GT 22Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+5
18.7%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the GT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
16.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:1918% → 18%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
17.7%
Haynes King run for 10 yds to the GT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
17.8%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the GT 36Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
17.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 10 yds to the GT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
18.2%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
18.2%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 6
50
+11
18.2%
Dontae Smith run for 11 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.1%
Dontae Smith run for no gain to the UNC 39Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
18.1%
Jamal Haynes run for 4 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+3
18.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 3 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
17.9%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 2:0383% → 83%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
16.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-5
16.6%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+2
16.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-10
17.0%
MAYE, Drake pass deep to the left complete for 31 yards to NESBIT, Bryson caught at the GT39 and advanced to the GT36 (MOALA, Paul). PENALTY UNC Holding enforced 10 yards from the UNC33 to the UNC23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+8
17.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 8 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 31
-5
17.2%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Will Hardy) to the UNC 26Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 16
OWN 26
0
17.1%
Tom Maginness punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7TD
5 plays · 69 yds · 1:2517% → 23%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
17.4%
Trey Cooley run for 3 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+16
17.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
50
+2
18.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 2 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
18.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 6 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+42
23.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 42 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0879% → 85%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+46
21.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 46 yds to the GT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
20.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the GT 21Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
20.1%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+14
20.3%
British Brooks run for 14 yds to the GT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
15.1%
British Brooks run for 7 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3117% → 22%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
16.5%
Haynes King run for 14 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
17.2%
Haynes King pass complete to Jamal Haynes for 3 yds to the GT 42Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+15
17.4%
KING, Haynes pass deep to the right incomplete intended for SINGLETON, JR., Eric thrown to the UNC20. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on CHAPMAN, Don enforced 15 yards to the UNC43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
17.6%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the UNC 42Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+8
17.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Avery Boyd for 8 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-5
17.6%
Georgia Tech Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNC 39Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
16.5%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+35
22.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 35 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5380% → 78%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
20.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
20.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
21.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:51
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
22.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 57 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 3:0521% → 36%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
21.3%
Dontae Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 13Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+6
21.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 6 yds to the GT 19Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+43
20.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 43 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
23.8%
Dontae Smith run for 8 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+9
24.5%
Dontae Smith run for 9 yds to the UNC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
24.5%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+4
24.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 4 yds to the UNC 14Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+14
35.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 14 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0170% → 82%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
29.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 8 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
29.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 6 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
28.0%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+8
28.2%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
50
+32
28.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 32 yds to the GT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
26.4%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the GT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
26.4%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the GT 4Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
17.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:4522% → 30%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.2%
Jamal Haynes run for 9 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
23.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 2 yds to the GT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
22.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 20 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
25.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
26.4%
Haynes King run for 3 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+12
26.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 12 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-6
26.5%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the UNC 23Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+40
30.1%
Aidan Birr 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0173% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
26.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
27.8%
Drake Maye sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 28Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
30.0%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
32.5%
Haynes King pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 6:4972% → 85%
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
28.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-5
28.3%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNC 15Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
28.7%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+14
29.7%
Drake Maye run for 14 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
28.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
27.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
26.9%
Drake Maye sacked by D'Quan Douse for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 40Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-10
27.7%
HAMPTON, Omarion rush to the right for a gain of 10 yards to the UNC50 (MOALA, Paul). PENALTY UNC Holding enforced 10 yards from the UNC40 to the UNC30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 21
OWN 30
+3
28.9%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q3 11:44
3RD & 18
OWN 33
+29
30.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 29 yds to the GT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
27.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the GT 35Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
26.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 6 yds to the GT 29Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+10
27.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the GT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
26.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the GT 14Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+14
15.4%
Drake Maye run for 14 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:3718% → 16%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 6 yds to the GT 31Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
18.3%
Jamal Haynes run for 4 yds to the GT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Chase Lane for no gain to the GT 35Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
17.9%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
17.0%
Haynes King pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
15.5%
David Shanahan punt for 61 yds, downed at the UNC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:3482% → 84%
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
17.7%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+9
17.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+7
18.1%
British Brooks run for 7 yds to the UNC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
17.3%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
17.4%
British Brooks run for 9 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
17.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
17.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
17.1%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
14.6%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 38Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
15.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 2:5016% → 44%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
15.6%
Dontae Smith run for 5 yds to the GT 17Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+7
15.6%
Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the GT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
15.9%
Dontae Smith run for 9 yds to the GT 33Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+6
16.8%
Dontae Smith run for 6 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
16.9%
Haynes King pass complete to Christian Leary for 14 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+29
18.5%
Jamal Haynes run for 29 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
20.3%
Jamal Haynes run for 6 yds to the UNC 12Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+8
20.3%
Jamal Haynes run for 8 yds to the UNC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.2%
Jamal Haynes run for 4 yds for a TD (Haynes King pass to Malik Rutherford for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:3971% → 88%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
28.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the GT 35Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+35
12.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 35 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:3316% → 37%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.7%
Dontae Smith run for 5 yds to the GT 30Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+70
36.8%
Dontae Smith run for 70 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22MISSED FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:4070% → 72%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
30.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 16 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
27.7%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+29
27.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 29 yds to the GT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
25.2%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the GT 23Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
25.2%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the GT 23Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+2
27.4%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the GT 21Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
27.9%
Noah Burnette 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:3235% → 84%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+52
34.9%
Haynes King run for 52 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
43.2%
Dontae Smith run for 10 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
43.2%
Dontae Smith run for 14 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
43.2%
Dontae Smith run for 2 yds to the UNC 1Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
43.2%
Dontae Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 5Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.4%
Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 5 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24FUMBLE
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:3429% → 26%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
71.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 22 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
66.1%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
67.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 7
50
-10
66.7%
MAYE, Drake pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to HAMPTON, Omarion caught at the GT40 and advanced to the GT40 (EFFORD, Kyle). PENALTY UNC Holding on TRIPLETT, Spencer enforced 10 yards from the UNC50 to the UNC40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 17
OWN 40
+36
74.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 36 yds Devontez Walker fumbled, recovered by GT K.J. Wallace [NHSG] MAYE, Drake pass deep up the middle complete for 36 yards to WALKER, Devontez caught at the GT33, WALKER, Devontez fumbled at GT30 forced by HARVEY, Ahmari, recovered by GT WALLACE, KJ at the GT24, returned 0 yards to the GT24, End of Play, clock 02:54.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25END OF GAME
11 plays · 23 yds · 2:4886% → 96%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
86.0%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the GT 27Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+6
88.4%
Haynes King run for 6 yds to the GT 33Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
87.7%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the GT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
91.5%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the GT 40Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
95.0%
Haynes King run for 3 yds to the GT 43Similar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
94.8%
Dontae Smith run for 6 yds to the GT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.1%
[NH] Kneel down by GT at GT47 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:28
Haynes King pass complete to Brett Seither for 5 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+41.2
TD · Q4 12:02
Jamal Haynes run for 4 yds for a TD (Haynes King pass to Malik Rutherford for Two-Point Conversion)
+23.9
TD · Q4 10:40
Dontae Smith run for 70 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+21.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com