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GT

Georgia Tech 30 at UCF 17

UCF
2023 · Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl · Dec 22, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreGT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:07 · David Shanahan punt for 57 yds , Nikai Martinez returns for 2 yds to the UCF 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior+18.9Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:26: Kobe Hudson 17 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick) — UCF win probability +3.2 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:23: Haynes King 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick) — GT win probability +7.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:56: Malik Rutherford 41 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick) — GT win probability +13.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:37: Dontae Smith 1 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick) — GT win probability +16.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:52: Aidan Birr 38 Yd Field Goal — GT win probability +4.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:07GT 4th & 11 at GT 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:59GT 4th & 15 at GT 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:17GT 4th & 7 at UCF 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−4.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:54UCF 4th & 1 at GT 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.9%−1.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:23UCF 4th & 6 at GT 10, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−4.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:55UCF 4th & 10 at UCF 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:07GT 4th & 1 at UCF 12, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%−2.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    30.6%−10.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:14UCF 4th & 11 at GT 30, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%−1.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:28UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−4.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:37GT 4th & 1 at UCF 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−6.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−22.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:45UCF 4th & 19 at UCF 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−2.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:52GT 4th & 11 at UCF 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:44UCF 4th & 4 at GT 16, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%−0.6
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:34GT 4th & 6 at GT 31, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:37UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:26UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:23GT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:56GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:37GT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:0870% → 71%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
70.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the GT 45Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+20
70.2%
RJ Harvey run for 20 yds to the GT 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
70.2%
RJ Harvey run for 2 yds to the GT 23Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
70.6%
Javon Baker 23 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:2430% → 29%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
70.5%
Georgia Tech Penalty, False Start (Christian Leary) to the GT 18Similar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
70.5%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Jamal HaynesSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+16
70.5%
Jamal Haynes run for 16 yds to the GT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
70.5%
Haynes, Jamal rush for 2 yards to the GATECH36, PENALTY UCF offside (Morris-Brash, Tre'Mon) 5 yards to the GATECH39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+5
70.5%
Zach Pyron run for 5 yds to the GT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
70.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 43Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
70.6%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Malik RutherfordSimilar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
70.8%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Eric Singleton Jr.Similar
Q1 11:07
4TH & 11
OWN 43
+2
70.9%
David Shanahan punt for 57 yds , Nikai Martinez returns for 2 yds to the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3TD
11 plays · 98 yds · 4:3471% → 75%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
70.9%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+36
71.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 36 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
71.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 14 yds to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
71.7%
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds to the GT 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
71.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 7 yds to the GT 24Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+2
72.0%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the GT 22Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+7
71.9%
RJ Harvey run for 7 yds to the GT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-7
72.2%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Jason Moore for a loss of 7 yards to the GT 22Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+5
72.3%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the GT 17Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+17
75.1%
Kobe Hudson 17 Yd pass from John Rhys Plumlee (Colton Boomer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4526% → 25%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
74.0%
Jamal Haynes run for a loss of 4 yards to the GT 26Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 14
OWN 26
0
74.4%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Jamal HaynesSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 14
OWN 26
-5
74.5%
Georgia Tech Penalty, False Start (Corey Robinson II) to the GT 21Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 19
OWN 21
+4
74.5%
Jamal Haynes run for 4 yds to the GT 25Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 15
OWN 25
0
74.9%
David Shanahan punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:3376% → 77%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
75.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+4
75.7%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+8
75.5%
RJ Harvey run for 8 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
76.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
76.6%
RJ Harvey run for 17 yds to the GT 42 RJ Harvey fumbled, forced by Clayton Powell-Lee, recovered by GT Myles Sims , return for 4 yds to the GT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:3825% → 27%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
74.9%
Haynes King run for 2 yds to the GT 44Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+2
75.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Dontae Smith for 2 yds to the GT 46Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+32
75.4%
Haynes King run for 32 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
74.3%
Haynes King run for 5 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-2
74.2%
Dontae Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 7
OPP 19
0
74.5%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Dontae SmithSimilar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+36
73.1%
Aidan Birr 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7FG
17 plays · 59 yds · 5:1774% → 80%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
73.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 3 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-4
75.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+30
74.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Kobe Hudson for 30 yds to the GT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
76.3%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass complete to Hudson, Kobe for 9 yards to the GATECH31, PENALTY UCF ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the GATECH45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+8
76.1%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 8 yds to the GT 37Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
76.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+6
76.0%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 6 yds to the GT 31Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+9
75.9%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
76.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
77.6%
RJ Harvey run for 3 yds to the GT 19Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+5
77.4%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Defensive Offside (Corey Robinson II) to the GT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
78.0%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Xavier Townsend for 2 yds to the GT 12Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
78.2%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the GT 10Similar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
77.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+27
80.1%
Colton Boomer 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:3722% → 30%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
78.3%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 8 yds to the GT 34Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+29
77.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Dylan Leonard for 29 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
77.1%
Jamal Haynes run for 9 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+11
77.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 11 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
77.8%
Haynes King run for 8 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+4
77.9%
Jamal Haynes run for 4 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
70.4%
Haynes King 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1973% → 72%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Johnny RichardsonSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
72.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 5 yds to the GT 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:2726% → 43%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
73.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Dontae Smith for 5 yds to the GT 38Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
72.6%
Haynes King run for 4 yds to the GT 42Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+6
72.6%
Dontae Smith run for 6 yds to the GT 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
72.5%
Dontae Smith run for 8 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+3
71.1%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
57.4%
Malik Rutherford 41 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 62 yds · 0:4665% → 67%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
64.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 13 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
65.9%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 13 yds to the GT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
67.7%
Plumlee, John Rhys pass incomplete to Harvey, RJ, PENALTY GATECH roughing passer (Harris, Kevin) 15 yards to the GATECH34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
68.8%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 14 yds to the GT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
68.8%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the GT 13Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 3
OPP 13
0
68.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+30
66.8%
Colton Boomer 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
61.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:1539% → 45%
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+35
60.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 35 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+10
57.3%
Jamal Haynes run for 10 yds to the UCF 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
56.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 2 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+3
56.6%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+4
57.6%
Haynes King run for 4 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+29
55.2%
Aidan Birr 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:3657% → 54%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.7%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
57.3%
RJ Harvey run for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
55.5%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Alec Holler for 6 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+8
56.6%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 8 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+27
58.4%
RJ Harvey run for 27 yds to the GT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
61.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
61.2%
RJ Harvey run for 4 yds to the GT 25Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+5
59.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Javon Baker for 5 yds to the GT 20Similar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 1
OPP 20
-10
57.6%
Harvey, RJ rush for 5 yards to the GATECH15, PENALTY UCF holding (Marshall, Marcellus) 10 yards to the GATECH30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:14
4TH & 11
OPP 30
0
54.3%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:5648% → 50%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
52.3%
Jamal Haynes run for 6 yds to the GT 36Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+5
50.8%
Jamal Haynes run for 5 yds to the GT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
49.8%
Haynes King pass intercepted Demari Henderson return for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2655% → 51%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
54.6%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to RJ HarveySimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
54.2%
John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to RJ Harvey for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
55.5%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-8
58.0%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Noah Collins for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 5:38
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
52.4%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 13
OWN 33
-2
51.4%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 40 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for a loss of 2 yards to the GT 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:2350% → 73%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
50.4%
Dontae Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 24Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
50.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Benson for 3 yds to the GT 27Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
51.4%
Haynes King run for 9 yds to the GT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
48.1%
Dontae Smith run for 11 yds to the GT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
46.1%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+7
45.3%
Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
44.7%
Dontae Smith run for 5 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+2
43.6%
Jamal Haynes run for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+26
44.7%
Haynes King run for 17 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Tre'Mon Morris-Brash) to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
42.7%
Zach Pyron run for 3 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
42.5%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
44.1%
Haynes King run for 2 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.2%
Dontae Smith 1 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 2:5228% → 20%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
27.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Kobe Hudson) to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
26.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 12 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
26.7%
Johnny Richardson run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
25.4%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
25.6%
RJ Harvey run for 1 yd to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
23.7%
John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Kobe HudsonSimilar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-10
22.7%
John Rhys Plumlee sacked by Paul Moala for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+11
19.8%
Mitch McCarthy punt for 47 yds , Rodney Shelley returns for 11 yds to the GT 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 5:2883% → 96%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
16.8%
Jamal Haynes run for 3 yds to the GT 40Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
15.7%
Jamal Haynes run for 6 yds to the GT 46Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+5
15.5%
Jamal Haynes run for 5 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
14.4%
Jamal Haynes run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+1
14.2%
Christian Leary run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+15
13.7%
UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Demari Henderson) to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
12.5%
Dontae Smith run for 11 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
9.9%
Haynes King run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-4
8.5%
Dontae Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+1
9.1%
Jamal Haynes run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 4:52
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
4.3%
Aidan Birr 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 59 yds · 1:438% → 7%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
7.7%
John Rhys Plumlee run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
7.6%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+57
5.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Javon Baker for 57 yds to the GT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
9.2%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Javon BakerSimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
8.6%
Timmy McClain run for 1 yd to the GT 21Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+5
7.3%
RJ Harvey run for 5 yds to the GT 16Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 4
OPP 16
0
6.8%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Alec HollerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:4197% → 98%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
3.0%
Jamal Haynes run for 11 yds to the GT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
2.3%
Haynes King run for a loss of 1 yard to the GT 26Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
1.7%
Dontae Smith run for 6 yds to the GT 32Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
1.8%
Dontae Smith run for 4 yds to the GT 36Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 1
OWN 36
-5
1.6%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the GT 31Similar
Q4 1:34
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
1.7%
David Shanahan punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
3.4%
Timmy McClain pass intercepted Ahmari Harvey return for no gain to the UCF 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:37
Dontae Smith 1 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)
-16.9
TD · Q2 0:56
Malik Rutherford 41 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)
-13.8
TD · Q2 4:23
Haynes King 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com