2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUGA aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUGA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Aidan Birr 49 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 0:35: Aidan Birr 25 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +2.9 pts (now 11%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:13: Daijun Edwards run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +4.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:31: Kendall Milton run for 4 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK) — UGA win probability +7.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UGA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:13: Aidan Birr 40 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +2.0 pts (now 8%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:46: Haynes King run for 5 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK) — GT win probability +11.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UGA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:50GT 4th & 6 at GT 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q1 0:35GT 4th & 1 at UGA 8, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snapGo for it14.3%70% to convertField goalTheir call13.9%−0.490% to makePunt12.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 12:40GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt13.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 6:06GT 4th & 10 at UGA 28, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snapGo for it16.4%−0.429% to convertField goalTheir call16.8%60% to makePunt14.1%−2.7average punt
- Q2 0:00GT 4th & 15 at UGA 32, down 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snapGo for it12.1%−0.917% to convertField goalTheir call12.9%51% to makePunt12.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 13:38UGA 4th & 11 at UGA 37, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snapGo for it85.3%−0.826% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.1%average punt
- Q3 11:00GT 4th & 14 at GT 40, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it13.2%−1.318% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.5%average punt
- Q3 5:15UGA 4th & 14 at GT 21, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snapGo for it82.1%−1.917% to convertField goalTheir call84.0%74% to makePunt78.4%−5.6average punt
- Q3 2:56GT 4th & 7 at UGA 45, down 11Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.6%−<0.137% to convertField goal12.8%−0.825% to makePunt13.6%average punt
- Q4 12:13GT 4th & 20 at UGA 23, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.3% before the snapGo for it2.6%−1.79% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%70% to makePunt0.7%−3.6average punt
- Q4 8:24GT 4th & 1 at UGA 15, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.4%71% to convertField goal5.4%−1.083% to makePunt1.2%−5.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UGA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 11:35GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.2%97% to makeGo for two9.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:23UGA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.3%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:40UGA Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.0%97% to makeGo for two86.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:13UGA Touchdown, up 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.6%97% to makeGo for two85.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:31UGA Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:46GT Touchdown, down 9 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 2.0 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call8.8%−2.097% to makeGo for two10.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:105% → 5%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
5.1%
KING, Haynes pass deep to the right complete for 31 yards to SINGLETON, JR., Eric caught at the UGA43 and advanced to the UGA40 (STARKS, Malaki). PENALTY GT Illegal Touch-Pass on SINGLETON, JR., Eric enforced 0 yards from the GT29 to the GT29, penalty results in a loss of down [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 2FUMBLE1 play · 4 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
5.5%
Daijun Edwards run for 4 yds to the UGA 37 Daijun Edwards fumbled, recovered by GT Kenan Johnson [SG] EDWARDS, Daijun rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards, EDWARDS, Daijun fumbled at UGA39 forced by DOUSE, D'Quan, recovered by GT JOHNSON, Kenan at the UGA39, returned 2 yards to the UGA37, End of Play, clock 13:42 (After review, play stands as called on the field).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD4 plays · 37 yds · 2:076% → 7%
UGADrive 4TD9 plays · 83 yds · 4:0994% → 93%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
6.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 12 yds to the UGA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
6.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
7.3%
Carson Beck pass complete to Dominic Lovett for 29 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5FG11 plays · 67 yds · 6:488% → 11%
Q1 7:23
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
7.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Luke Benson for 7 yds to the GT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
7.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 15 yds to the UGA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+17
8.5%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 17 yds to the UGA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 6TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5589% → 90%
GTDrive 7FG12 plays · 47 yds · 6:3411% → 16%
Q2 12:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
10.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 7 yds to the GT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 2
OPP 20
-10
13.6%
Georgia Tech Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UGA 27Similar
Q2 8:53
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-1
13.6%
Haynes King run for a loss of 1 yard to the UGA 28 Jamal Haynes fumbled, recovered by GT Haynes King [NHSG] QB Keeper KING, Haynes rush up the middle for a loss of 1 yard, KING, Haynes fumbled at UGA28 , recovered by GT KING, Haynes at the UGA28, returned 0 yards to the UGA28, End of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 8TD11 plays · 64 yds · 4:4686% → 90%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
13.7%
Kendall Milton run for 36 yds Georgia Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the GT 40Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 14
OPP 40
+5
14.0%
Carson Beck pass complete to Daijun Edwards for 5 yds to the GT 35Similar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
14.4%
Carson Beck pass complete to Oscar Delp for 16 yds to the GT 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9MISSED FG15 plays · 43 yds · 1:1311% → 13%
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
11.6%
run for 7 yds to the UGA 37 for a 1ST down Georgia Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Malaki Starks) to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
13.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 7 yds to the UGA 30Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
14.4%
Haynes King sacked by Christen Miller for a loss of 5 yards to the UGA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 10PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1490% → 88%
Q3 13:38
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
12.1%
Brett Thorson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dominick Blaylock at the GT 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:3812% → 12%
Q3 11:00
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
12.1%
David Shanahan punt for 48 yds , returns for no gain to the UGA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 12FG10 plays · 65 yds · 5:4588% → 88%
GTDrive 13DOWNS8 plays · 30 yds · 2:1912% → 12%
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
12.3%
Georgia Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins) to the UGA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 14TD5 plays · 55 yds · 2:2589% → 97%
GTDrive 15FG6 plays · 52 yds · 2:475% → 8%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+57
5.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Eric Singleton Jr. for 57 yds to the UGA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 16INT8 plays · 40 yds · 3:4395% → 96%
Q4 12:07
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+11
4.6%
Carson Beck pass complete to Arian Smith for 11 yds to the GT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
4.6%
BECK, Carson pass to the left complete for 5 yards to DELP, Oscar caught at the GT11 and advanced to the GT6 (KING, Jaylon). PENALTY UGA Holding on FAIRCHILD, Dylan enforced 10 yards from the GT11 to the GT21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 15
OPP 16
-5
4.0%
BECK, Carson pass to the right complete for 16 yards to BELL, Dillon caught at the GT1 and advanced to the GT0, TOUCHDOWN UGA, score nullified by penalty, clock 09:16 (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY UGA Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on VAN PRAN, Sedrick enforced 5 yards from the GT16 to the GT21 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
4.0%
Carson Beck pass intercepted, touchback. K.J. Wallace return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD10 plays · 80 yds · 4:385% → 18%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
5.1%
Haynes King pass complete to Malik Rutherford for 12 yds to the GT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UGADrive 18END OF GAME11 plays · 27 yds · 2:4193% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:46
Haynes King run for 5 yds for a TD (Aidan Birr KICK)
+11.5
TD · Q3 0:31
Kendall Milton run for 4 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q2 1:13
Daijun Edwards run for 3 yds for a TD (Peyton Woodring KICK)
-4.8