North Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2386th
  Defense+0.1242nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.8%85th
  Defense42.2%49th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2961st
  Defense+1.2649th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2597th
  Defense+0.1139th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2657th
  Defense+0.2346th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.9%89th
  Defense46.3%61st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.8%62nd
  Defense34.0%11th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4292nd
  Defense3.3117th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.5%88th
  Defense12.1%8th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.0%86th
  Defense15.6%34th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what North Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   SC
2. W
   APP
3. W
   MINN
4. W
   PITT
5. W
   SYR
6. W
   MIA
7. L
   UVA
8. L
   GT
9. W
   CAM
10. W
    DUKE
11. L
    CLEM
12. L
    NCSU
13. L
    WVU

Bars above the line: better than expected for North Carolina.

Players, 2023

1. Drake MayeQB437 plays · +0.292 pts/play · 7th of 250 QBs
   2.39WAR1.51 to 3.28
2. Omarion HamptonRB231 plays · +0.117 pts/play · 17th of 383 RBs
   0.51WAR0.26 to 0.72
3. Bryson NesbitTE46 plays · +0.333 pts/play · 2nd of 212 TEs
   0.29WAR0.18 to 0.41
4. Devontez WalkerWR54 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 134th of 457 WRs
   0.13WAR0.00 to 0.27
5. J.J. JonesWR53 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 136th of 457 WRs
   0.13WAR0.00 to 0.27
6. British BrooksRB60 plays · +0.083 pts/play · 239th of 383 RBs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.13
7. Noah BurnettePK13 plays · +0.345 pts/play · 61st of 113 kickers
   0.08WAR0.05 to 0.12
8. John CopenhaverTE17 plays · +0.187 pts/play · 101st of 212 TEs
   0.06WAR0.02 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares North Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  80680617th of 130Roster talent: 806, 17th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  24524516th of 130Recruiting: 245, 16th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  78%78%20th of 128Returning production: 78%, 20th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +7.4+7.439th of 130SP+ rating: +7.4, 39th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than North Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.13 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs UVAQ4 3:12 4th & 12 at UVA 20, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−8.5 pts
2. vs SCQ4 6:35 4th & 7 at SC 31, down 14Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.8 pts
3. at WVUQ4 5:07 4th & 14 at WVU 28, down 20Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
4. at GTQ4 14:52 4th & 3 at UNC 38, up 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs SCQ4 2:22 4th & 2 at SC 46, down 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
6. vs UVAQ2 2:17 4th & 3 at UNC 27, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at CLEMQ4 4:17 4th & 20 at UNC 20, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts
8. vs MIAQ4 11:01 4th & 3 at MIA 17, up 18Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

103rd of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up North Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   SC
2. W

   APP
3. W

   MINN
4. W

   PITT
5. W

   SYR
6. W

   MIA
7. L

   UVA
8. L

   GT
9. W

   CAM
10. W

    DUKE
11. L

    CLEM
12. L

    NCSU
13. L

    WVU

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at North Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.35
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.04
• Timeouts−0.02
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−1.27

Game by game

• SCW 31-17 vs SC45% → 2%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −48, Clock −2
• APPW 40-34 vs APP91% → 69%Before kickoff +41 · On the field −22: Scoreboard +2, Possession & field position +2
• MINNW 31-13 vs MINN72% → 99%Before kickoff +22 · On the field +27: Scoreboard +30
• PITTW 41-24 at PITT74% → 98%Before kickoff +24 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +34, Clock +2
• SYRW 40-7 vs SYR76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +26
• MIAW 41-31 vs MIA55% → 95%Before kickoff +5 · On the field +40: Scoreboard +37, Possession & field position −2
• UVAL 27-31 vs UVA95% → 5%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −90: Scoreboard −50, Clock −3
• GTL 42-46 at GT83% → 4%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −79: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts −4
• CAMW 59-7 vs CAM99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +1
• DUKEW 47-45 vs DUKE75% → 67%Before kickoff +25 · On the field −9: Scoreboard +3, Possession & field position +2
• CLEML 20-31 at CLEM30% → 2%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −28: Scoreboard −35, Possession & field position +2
• NCSUL 20-39 at NCSU63% → 0%Before kickoff +13 · On the field −63: Scoreboard −53, Timeouts −1
• WVUL 10-30 at WVU46% → 0%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −41, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from North Carolina's side.

Closest call

SC 17-31 UNC (2023) - North Carolina dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.