North Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2488th
  Defense+0.2210th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.2%78th
  Defense48.2%5th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3177th
  Defense+1.1969th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1052nd
  Defense+0.1418th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3789th
  Defense+0.3613th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.3%65th
  Defense55.1%2nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense39.5%95th
  Defense30.6%47th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1559th
  Defense3.2326th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.8%52nd
  Defense13.7%16th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.0%69th
  Defense12.3%4th

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what North Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   FAMU
2. W
   APP
3. W
   GAST
4. L
   ND
5. W
   VT
6. W
   MIA
7. W
   DUKE
8. W
   PITT
9. W
   UVA
10. W
    WAKE
11. L
    GT
12. L
    NCSU
13. L
    CLEM
14. L
    ORE

Bars above the line: better than expected for North Carolina.

Players, 2022

1. Drake MayeQB614 plays · +0.337 pts/play · 2nd of 234 QBs
   3.88WAR2.70 to 5.19
2. Elijah GreenRB133 plays · +0.141 pts/play · 74th of 384 RBs
   0.35WAR0.26 to 0.45
3. Josh DownsWR98 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 29th of 455 WRs
   0.27WAR0.11 to 0.44
4. Antoine GreenWR56 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 42nd of 455 WRs
   0.23WAR0.12 to 0.33
5. Bryson NesbitTE37 plays · +0.232 pts/play · 8th of 214 TEs
   0.16WAR0.10 to 0.23
6. Omarion HamptonRB67 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 195th of 384 RBs
   0.16WAR0.11 to 0.20
7. Caleb HoodRB52 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 213th of 384 RBs
   0.14WAR0.11 to 0.18
8. Kamari MoralesTE39 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 34th of 214 TEs
   0.10WAR0.03 to 0.18

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares North Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  81381316th of 129Roster talent: 813, 16th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  24424416th of 129Recruiting: 244, 16th of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  45%45%89th of 128Returning production: 45%, 89th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +7.8+7.846th of 129SP+ rating: +7.8, 46th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than North Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 8 clear-cut ones account for 0.18 of the 0.20 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs GTQ4 4:10 4th & 11 at GT 19, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−6.9 pts
2. vs OREQ4 9:13 4th & 2 at ORE 2, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−3.1 pts
3. at MIAQ4 4:10 4th & 2 at MIA 2, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
4. vs NCSUQ3 6:44 4th & 2 at UNC 28, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
5. at MIAQ4 1:14 4th & 7 at MIA 44, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. at GASTQ4 7:10 4th & 2 at UNC 28, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
7. at GASTQ4 7:10 4th & 2 at UNC 28, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
8. at DUKEQ4 0:45 4th & 5 at DUKE 20, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

40th of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up North Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   FAMU
2. W

   APP
3. W

   GAST
4. L

   ND
5. W

   VT
6. W

   MIA
7. W

   DUKE
8. W

   PITT
9. W

   UVA
10. W

    WAKE
11. L

    GT
12. L

    NCSU
13. L

    CLEM
14. L

    ORE

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at North Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.34
• Possession & field position+0.07
• Clock+0.22
• Timeouts−0.16
• Other−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.57

Game by game

• FAMUW 56-24 vs FAMU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• APPW 63-61 at APP44% → 96%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +52, Clock +3
• GASTW 35-28 at GAST71% → 92%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +21: Scoreboard +38, Clock +1
• NDL 32-45 vs ND57% → 2%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• VTW 41-10 vs VT77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +26
• MIAW 27-24 at MIA37% → 94%Before kickoff −13 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• DUKEW 38-35 at DUKE71% → 95%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +23: Scoreboard +37, Clock +2
• PITTW 42-24 vs PITT63% → 99%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +1
• UVAW 31-28 at UVA68% → 95%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +26: Scoreboard +39, Clock +2
• WAKEW 36-34 at WAKE39% → 95%Before kickoff −11 · On the field +56: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• GTL 17-21 vs GT92% → 4%Before kickoff +42 · On the field −87: Scoreboard −54, Clock −3
• NCSUL 27-30 vs NCSU70% → 35%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −21
• CLEML 10-39 vs CLEM30% → 0%Before kickoff −20 · On the field −30: Scoreboard −35
• OREL 27-28 vs ORE23% → 25%Before kickoff −27 · On the field +2: Scoreboard −28, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from North Carolina's side.

Closest call

SC 17-31 UNC (2023) - North Carolina dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.