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PITT

Pittsburgh 36 at North Carolina 37

UNC
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4SAFETYFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · Nick Weiler kickoff for 47 yds , Rachid Ibrahim return for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 40 , Quadree Henderson return for 46 yds to the NCaro 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:54: Chawntez Moss run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +12.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:32: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +19.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q3 2:24: Nathan Peterman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +15.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:24: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +24.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:02: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +72.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 10:30PITT 4th & 14 at UNC 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:16PITT 4th & 26 at UNC 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:19PITT 4th & 1 at UNC 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−2.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−7.7
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:11UNC 4th & 21 at UNC 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−4.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  5. Q3 1:06UNC 4th & 7 at PITT 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−10.9
    average punt
  6. Q4 14:44PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  7. Q4 13:45UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 30, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:03PITT 4th & 6 at UNC 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−10.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:10UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 24, down 13
    Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:34PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:10UNC 4th & 3 at PITT 26, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.5
    64% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:35PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−2.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:40UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.5%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:56UNC 4th & 6 at PITT 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−6.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    11.7%−7.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:51UNC 4th & 9 at PITT 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.0%
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−4.0
    64% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−7.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 12:55PITT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:40UNC Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:28PITT Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:12UNC Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:54PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:32UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:24PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:24UNC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−1.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:02UNC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−16.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:1733% → 34%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
66.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 20 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
66.4%
Jordan Whitehead run for 8 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 13:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
66.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
66.3%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
66.1%
Peterman, Nathan pass complete to Conner, James for no gain to the UNC42, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 20
OWN 48
+6
66.2%
Maurice Ffrench run for 6 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 14
OPP 46
0
66.0%
Nathan Peterman run for no gain to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
66.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q1 10:30
4TH & 14
OPP 46
+41
66.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 35 yds NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the NCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2SF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-5
65.8%
Ejuan Price SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 7:3934% → 37%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
65.7%
Quadree Henderson run for 16 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
65.3%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
65.1%
George Aston run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+12
65.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 12 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
64.6%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+5
64.3%
Chawntez Moss run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+7
64.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 7 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
63.7%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
63.5%
Quadree Henderson run for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+6
63.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 6 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
63.0%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-28
62.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 28 yards to the NCaro 42 TEAM fumbled, recovered by PittSimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 36
OPP 42
+10
63.5%
Chawntez Moss run for 10 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 2:16
4TH & 26
OPP 32
+50
63.1%
Chris Blewitt 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 16 yds · 0:1762% → 62%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
62.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
63.1%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
62.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41 Elijah Hood fumbled, recovered by Pitt Saleem BrightwellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 3:4039% → 48%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
61.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 7 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+1
60.5%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
60.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 3 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
59.9%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+5
59.5%
Jordan Whitehead run for 5 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+22
59.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jaymar Parrish for 22 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.2%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 0:5353% → 62%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+58
53.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 58 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-15
55.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 25
OPP 48
+9
54.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 9 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 16
OPP 39
+39
62.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 39 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0640% → 54%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
60.3%
Quadree Henderson run for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
59.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+39
59.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 39 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
57.2%
Darrin Hall run for 8 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+1
56.8%
Darrin Hall run for 1 yd to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
57.0%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
58.1%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
55.3%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 3
OPP 9
-1
55.0%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+7
55.1%
Nathan Peterman run for 7 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.5%
George Aston run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 2:5648% → 56%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
48.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 12 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
48.2%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-5
48.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+13
48.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 13 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
48.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
48.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+10
47.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 10 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
47.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+9
47.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 9 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
47.5%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+19
56.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 19 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9FUMBLE
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:0550% → 54%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
49.6%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
48.3%
Maurice Ffrench run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+2
48.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
47.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+9
46.2%
Quadree Henderson run for 9 yds to the NCaro 49 Quadree Henderson fumbled, recovered by NCaro Donnie Miles , return for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:3453% → 58%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
52.8%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Avonte Maddox for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+1
49.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 18
OWN 41
+27
49.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 27 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
53.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
53.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+34
58.0%
Nick Weiler 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3957% → 53%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.6%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
55.7%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
54.1%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Quintin Wirginis for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q3 13:11
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
52.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
5 plays · 56 yds · 2:0948% → 63%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
51.7%
Quadree Henderson run for 21 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
50.2%
Chawntez Moss run for 13 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
49.6%
Chawntez Moss run for 9 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+11
49.3%
Quadree Henderson run for 11 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.3%
Chawntez Moss run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1138% → 59%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.1%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+45
37.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 45 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
41.7%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+14
41.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 14 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
41.3%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
41.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for 4 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
39.4%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
59.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:5349% → 73%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
51.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 14 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
50.0%
Chawntez Moss run for 6 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+27
48.2%
James Conner run for 27 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
45.8%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
45.0%
Tre Tipton run for 6 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
44.7%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
43.5%
Nathan Peterman run for 7 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+14
44.7%
George Aston run for 14 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
41.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
42.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 5 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
42.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
26.8%
Nathan Peterman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:0329% → 30%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
28.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 13 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+41
29.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 41 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
33.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 3 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
32.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
32.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
30.3%
Nick Weiler 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0171% → 70%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
28.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
28.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+1
29.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 1 yd to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4528% → 25%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
27.5%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+9
26.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 9 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
26.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 13:45
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
25.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:2273% → 89%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
27.0%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+37
23.6%
Quadree Henderson run for 37 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
20.5%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+3
20.0%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
18.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
11.4%
Chris Blewitt 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2417% → 13%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
16.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-5
15.7%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+10
14.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+1
12.8%
Tom Sheldon punt for 47 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 25 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1091% → 92%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
8.7%
Chawntez Moss run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
8.0%
Quadree Henderson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
8.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tre TiptonSimilar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+14
8.2%
Ryan Winslow punt for 35 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 14 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
11 plays · 45 yds · 1:5813% → 39%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
13.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 12 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
16.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
15.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Jordan CunninghamSimilar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-5
13.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+12
11.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 12 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 3
OPP 26
+3
12.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
14.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 20 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
14.3%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:2783% → 86%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.6%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 4:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
14.0%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
13.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for no gain to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
13.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
20 plays · 63 yds · 3:1626% → 94%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
26.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 5 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
28.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-11
27.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (-11 Yards) to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+10
22.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 10 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+15
24.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
30.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
30.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
28.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+13
22.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 13 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-11
31.8%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Saleem Brightwell for a loss of 11 yards to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 21
OPP 38
+5
18.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+7
13.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+9
13.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
20.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
17.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 13 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
22.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
21.6%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Pitt 2Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:02
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+72
TD · Q4 5:24
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+24.6
TD · Q3 8:32
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+19.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com