Try the model
UVA

Virginia 31 at North Carolina 27

UNC
2023 · Week 8 · Oct 21, 2023 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · T. Muskett takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:35: Drake Maye run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +4.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:56: Mike Hollins run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +12.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 0:32: Will Bettridge 45 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +8.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 12:08: Noah Burnette 27 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +4.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:51: Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK) — UVA win probability +38.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:58UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:58UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33UVA 4th & 7 at UNC 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:21UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:21UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:33UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:14UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 31, up 7
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:58UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:06UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    85.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:17UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:58UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:00UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.6%−2.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:02UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−5.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:32UVA 4th & 4 at UNC 27, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%−0.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.6%−8.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:08UNC 4th & 10 at UVA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−2.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−15.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:55UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:12UNC 4th & 12 at UVA 20, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 8.5 ptsWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.9%−8.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−16.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:12UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:05UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:36UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:56UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:12UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:35UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:56UVA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:51UVA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5695% → 95%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
95.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 5 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+6
95.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
95.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+7
94.9%
Tom Maginness punt for 39 yds , Suderian Harrison returns for 7 yds to the UVA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:535% → 6%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
94.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+6
94.9%
Perris Jones run for 6 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.9%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
94.9%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+8
94.9%
Mike Hollins run for 8 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+22
94.9%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 22 yds to the UNC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
93.8%
Mike Hollins run for 11 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:2994% → 94%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 1 yd to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
94.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 6 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
94.0%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
94.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
94.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UVA 45 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Suderian Harrison) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
94.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 18 yds to the UVA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
94.1%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+25
93.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 25 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:576% → 7%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
93.6%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
93.6%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+23
93.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Kaimon Rucker) to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
93.5%
Virginia Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tony Muskett) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 13
50
+6
93.5%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
93.5%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Sackett Wood Jr.Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
93.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1293% → 93%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
93.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
93.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 9Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+31
93.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to for 31 yds to the UNC 9Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 7
OWN 9
0
92.5%
Tom Maginness punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:258% → 11%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
92.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Perris Jones for 10 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
92.5%
Perris Jones run for 2 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
92.4%
Perris Jones run for 6 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
92.5%
Tony Muskett run for 1 yd to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
92.6%
Grady Brosterhous run for 2 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
92.4%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 22 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.2%
Mike Hollins run for 3 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 1:2390% → 89%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
British Brooks run for no gain to the UNC 25Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete deep right to Walker,Devontez PENALTY UVA Offside (Faumui,Aaron) 5 yards from UNC25 to UNC30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
89.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete deep middle to Walker,Devontez broken up by Westfall,Sam PENALTY UVA Holding (Westfall,Sam) 10 yards from UNC30 to UNC40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
90.2%
British Brooks run for 5 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
90.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
90.1%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:33
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
89.1%
Tom Maginness punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UVA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1911% → 12%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.0%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
88.7%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+6
88.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UVA 31Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
88.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 1:0288% → 91%
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
88.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 12 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
88.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+62
91.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 62 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:0910% → 11%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
90.0%
Perris Jones run for 9 yds to the UVA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
89.8%
Tony Muskett sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 30 Tony Muskett fumbled, recovered by UVA Jimmy Christ , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+7
90.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 7 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-10
90.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Muskett,Tony pass complete short middle to Washington,Malik for 9 yards to the UVA46 (Chapman,Don) PENALTY UVA Holding (Hollins,Mike) 10 yards from UVA37 to UVA27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 19
OWN 27
+6
90.3%
Mike Hollins run for 6 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
89.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 61 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:5289% → 88%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
89.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 10Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+9
89.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 9 yds to the UNC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
89.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
89.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+6
89.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
89.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 12 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
89.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
87.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12INT
12 plays · 39 yds · 3:5615% → 18%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.5%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
85.6%
Perris Jones run for 8 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+7
85.5%
Perris Jones run for 7 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
85.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Muskett,Tony pass incomplete deep left to Fields,Malachi PENALTY UNC Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UNC34 to UNC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 5
OPP 29
+12
85.1%
Tony Muskett run for 12 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
85.1%
PENALTY UNC Offside (Atkinson,Beau) 5 yards from UNC17 to UNC12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+1
85.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Kobe Pace for 1 yd to the UNC 13Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
85.1%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UNC 12Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+9
85.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the UNC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
85.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hollins,Mike rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNC01 (Rucker,Kaimon) PENALTY UVA Holding (Nnanna,Ugonna) 10 yards from UNC03 to UNC13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
85.2%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 3 yds to the UNC 10Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
82.2%
Tony Muskett pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5386% → 84%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
86.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+3
86.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
85.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
84.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Suderian Harrison at the UVA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1917% → 17%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
83.3%
Tony Muskett run for 4 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+3
82.5%
Perris Jones run for 3 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
82.5%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 0:58
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
82.9%
Daniel Sparks punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 0:5885% → 88%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
84.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 4 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
84.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
84.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete deep left to Jones,J.J. broken up by Westfall,Sam PENALTY UVA Offside (Bennett, Jr.,Chico) 5 yards from UNC24 to UNC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+6
84.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
84.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 12 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Defensive Holding (Suderian Harrison) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
85.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 13 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
85.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 14 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+43
87.9%
Noah Burnette 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:0014% → 16%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.9%
Tony Muskett run for 3 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
85.8%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
86.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 11 yds to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
84.8%
Mike Hollins run for 10 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
84.3%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
84.4%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+6
84.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 2
OPP 41
+1
83.7%
Tony Muskett run for 1 yd to the UNC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2586% → 92%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
86.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 18 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
86.7%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the UVA 34Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
87.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+10
86.5%
Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the UVA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
87.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the UVA 16Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+13
87.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 13 yds to the UVA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.0%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:399% → 23%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
90.8%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 31Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
90.5%
Kobe Pace run for 6 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
90.5%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+20
90.3%
Tony Muskett run for 20 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
89.8%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+14
89.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
89.0%
Mike Hollins run for 4 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+1
89.5%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UNC 19Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+8
90.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 8 yds to the UNC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
89.5%
Mike Hollins run for 9 yds to the UNC 2Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+1
89.5%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the UNC 3Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
90.1%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the UNC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.4%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:5482% → 79%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 1 yd to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-7
81.5%
Drake Maye sacked by Jahmeer Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 17Similar
Q3 3:56
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
80.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for no gain to the UNC 17Similar
Q3 2:02
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
78.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 16 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3024% → 31%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.2%
Tony Muskett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
76.2%
Tony Muskett run for 4 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+2
77.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Mike Hollins for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q3 0:32
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
69.1%
Will Bettridge 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:2474% → 82%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
74.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 16 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
76.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 12 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
77.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass complete deep left to Jones,J.J. for 47 yards to the UVA00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 14:53 PENALTY UNC Holding (Morales,Kamari) 10 yards from UVA47 to UNC43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 20
OWN 43
+18
75.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 18 yds to the UVA 39Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
77.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
79.1%
Devontez Walker run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+19
79.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 19 yds to the UVA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.1%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UVA 10Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
79.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
77.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q4 12:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
81.7%
Noah Burnette 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 3:1221% → 63%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
78.6%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+30
77.5%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 30 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
74.7%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malachi Fields for 13 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
73.3%
Perris Jones run for 5 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
73.2%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the UNC 19Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
74.8%
Tony Muskett run for 5 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
36.6%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:5651% → 46%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
50.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
46.0%
Cole Maynard punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 53 yds · 3:0564% → 74%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
35.9%
Tony Muskett run for 18 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
33.7%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+18
33.8%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Sackett Wood Jr. for 18 yds to the UNC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
33.6%
Mike Hollins run for no gain to the UNC 15Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
33.6%
Tony Muskett run for 7 yds to the UNC 8Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
26.3%
Mike Hollins run for 8 yds Mike Hollins fumbled, recovered by UVASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3839% → 35%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+33
38.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Tychaun Chapman for 33 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+29
45.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 29 yds to the UVA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
48.9%
Drake Maye sacked by Ben Smiley III for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 20Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
48.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Tychaun ChapmanSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
44.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 3:12
4TH & 12
OPP 20
0
35.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 2:0078% → 89%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
21.6%
Perris Jones run for 8 yds to the UVA 28Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
20.5%
Perris Jones run for 1 yd to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
18.4%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
16.3%
Virginia Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
16.5%
Perris Jones run for 4 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q4 2:07
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+1
16.4%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 36Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+6
11.1%
Daniel Sparks punt for 45 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for 6 yds to the UNC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:4622% → 19%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
22.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 11 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
23.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 14 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.4%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
19.4%
Drake Maye pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
4.8%
T. Muskett takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:51
Tony Muskett pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
-38.2
TD · Q3 3:56
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
-12.8
FG · Q3 0:32
Will Bettridge 45 yd FG GOOD
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com