North Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2024

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1348th
  Defense+0.1338th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.0%41st
  Defense40.5%61st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3276th
  Defense+1.2556th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2392nd
  Defense+0.1427th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0720th
  Defense+0.1941st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.8%45th
  Defense47.5%47th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.5%32nd
  Defense25.6%91st
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3286th
  Defense3.3910th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.9%89th
  Defense12.4%5th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.7%38th
  Defense15.9%47th

Percentiles among the 134 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2024

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what North Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MINN
2. W
   CLT
3. W
   NCCU
4. L
   JMU
5. L
   DUKE
6. L
   PITT
7. L
   GT
8. W
   UVA
9. W
   FSU
10. W
    WAKE
11. L
    BC
12. L
    NCSU
13. L
    CONN

Bars above the line: better than expected for North Carolina.

Players, 2024

1. Jacolby CriswellQB312 plays · +0.224 pts/play · 70th of 232 QBs
   1.31WAR0.71 to 1.90
2. Omarion HamptonRB262 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 4th of 373 RBs
   0.70WAR0.46 to 0.89
3. J.J. JonesWR36 plays · +0.256 pts/play · 62nd of 452 WRs
   0.17WAR0.09 to 0.26
4. Noah BurnettePK17 plays · +0.358 pts/play · 18th of 114 kickers
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.15
5. Max JohnsonQB25 plays · +0.204 pts/play · 208th of 232 QBs
   0.10WAR0.05 to 0.14
6. Bryson NesbitTE18 plays · +0.216 pts/play · 39th of 221 TEs
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.12
7. John CopenhaverTE31 plays · +0.049 pts/play · 107th of 221 TEs
   0.03WAR−0.06 to 0.11
8. Kobe PaysourWR22 plays · +0.021 pts/play · 359th of 452 WRs
   0.01WAR−0.05 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares North Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2024

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  79579522nd of 131Roster talent: 795, 22nd of 131 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  24024017th of 131Recruiting: 240, 17th of 131 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  45%45%67th of 130Returning production: 45%, 67th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.0+5.048th of 131SP+ rating: +5.0, 48th of 131 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 131 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2024

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than North Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 0 clear-cut ones account for 0.00 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at DUKEQ3 3:37 4th & 2 at UNC 44, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
2. vs WAKEQ4 5:40 4th & 3 at UNC 47, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
3. vs NCCUQ3 3:39 4th & 12 at NCCU 44, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts
4. vs NCCUQ3 3:39 4th & 12 at NCCU 44, up 7Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.7 pts
5. vs NCSUQ4 6:31 4th & 4 at UNC 32, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
6. at BCQ2 0:00 4th & 10 at BC 40, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
7. vs GTQ4 7:45 4th & 6 at UNC 36, down 10Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.4 pts
8. at DUKEQ1 0:24 4th & 4 at UNC 49, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2024

126th of 134 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up North Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MINN
2. W

   CLT
3. W

   NCCU
4. L

   JMU
5. L

   DUKE
6. L

   PITT
7. L

   GT
8. W

   UVA
9. W

   FSU
10. W

    WAKE
11. L

    BC
12. L

    NCSU
13. L

    CONN

What moved it, 2024

Every game starts at North Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.58
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock−0.05
• Timeouts−0.01
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.35

Game by game

• MINNW 19-17 at MINN51% → 81%Before kickoff +1 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +39, Clock +3
• CLTW 38-20 vs CLT92% → 99%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +13
• NCCUW 45-10 vs NCCU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• JMUL 50-70 vs JMU83% → 0%Before kickoff +33 · On the field −83: Scoreboard −67, Clock −4
• DUKEL 20-21 at DUKE55% → 9%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −31, Possession & field position −1
• PITTL 24-34 vs PITT44% → 3%Before kickoff −6 · On the field −41: Scoreboard −48, Clock −3
• GTL 34-41 vs GT38% → 9%Before kickoff −12 · On the field −29: Scoreboard −38, Timeouts −3
• UVAW 41-14 at UVA42% → 100%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +58: Scoreboard +57, Clock +2
• FSUW 35-11 at FSU58% → 100%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +45, Clock +2
• WAKEW 31-24 vs WAKE79% → 99%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +24, Timeouts +1
• BCL 21-41 at BC56% → 0%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −52, Clock +1
• NCSUL 30-35 vs NCSU59% → 11%Before kickoff +9 · On the field −48: Scoreboard −45, Possession & field position −3
• CONNL 14-27 vs CONN62% → 2%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −60: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3

Points of win probability, from North Carolina's side.

Closest call

SC 17-31 UNC (2023) - North Carolina dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.