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UNC

North Carolina 20 at Duke 21

DUKE
2024 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2024 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:32 · Tom Maginness punt for 20 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense−17.0Score differential−4.0Garbage-time factor−8.3Pregame prior−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:43: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +10.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:49: Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 29 yds for a TD Duke Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Que'Sean Brown) to the UNC 0 (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:21: Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +22.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 5:42: Peyton Jones run for 20 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK) — DUKE win probability +33.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:16: (00:16) Kneel down by DUKE at UNC44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:10. — DUKE win probability +21.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UNC made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 14:30DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:56DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:19UNC 4th & 7 at DUKE 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:44DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:34UNC 4th & 1 at DUKE 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    50.6%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:36DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:24UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:58DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:42UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 10:16DUKE 4th & 5 at UNC 47, down 10
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:04DUKE 4th & 4 at UNC 30, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:27UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:50UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:23UNC 4th & 11 at DUKE 19, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−7.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:37UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 44, up 13
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:18DUKE 4th & 1 at UNC 20, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.3%−1.7
    75% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−6.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:01UNC 4th & 11 at DUKE 46, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−1.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    69.6%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:55DUKE 4th & 10 at UNC 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    28.9%−1.0
    34% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−0.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:32UNC 4th & 20 at UNC 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−6.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:57UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−4.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:42DUKE 4th & 1 at UNC 45, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 9.8 ptsPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−12.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−9.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:34UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:43UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:49DUKE Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:21DUKE Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:42DUKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2945% → 45%
Q1 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
45.0%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the DUKE 31Similar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
45.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
45.1%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
45.1%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 59 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for 1 yd to the UNC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4855% → 54%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
45.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 5 yds to the UNC 16Similar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+3
45.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 19Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+1
45.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 20Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
45.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 65 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:2646% → 46%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
45.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
45.7%
Star Thomas run for 7 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
45.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
45.5%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3055% → 54%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
45.5%
Jacolby Criswell run for 13 yds to the DUKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
45.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 17 yds to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
45.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
45.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:27
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
45.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+40
45.7%
Noah Burnette 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3346% → 45%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 25Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.8%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the DUKE 28Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-6
45.6%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Kevin Hester Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the DUKE 22Similar
Q1 8:44
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
45.3%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:0355% → 58%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
45.5%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 43Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-5
45.7%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UNC 38Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+6
45.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+11
45.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 11 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
45.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 8 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 37
0
45.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
45.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
45.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
45.1%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the DUKE 24Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 1
OPP 24
0
45.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+24
42.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 24 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:5643% → 42%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
42.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 18 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
43.4%
Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 46Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
43.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
42.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
41.6%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:0458% → 59%
Q1 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
42.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+3
42.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
42.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
41.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
41.5%
Davion Gause run for 15 yds to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
40.6%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
40.5%
Jacolby Criswell run for 4 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
40.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:24
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+18
40.9%
Tom Maginness punt for 48 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 18 yds to the DUKE 33 North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Motion (Alex Taylor) to the DUKE 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1440% → 39%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
40.3%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 24Similar
Q2 14:59
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+8
40.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 8 yds to the DUKE 32Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+14
39.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 14 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
40.8%
Star Thomas run for no gain to the DUKE 46Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
40.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 1 yd to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
39.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
38.9%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:0959% → 59%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
40.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
40.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
40.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
40.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
41.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1939% → 38%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
39.3%
Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 48Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
39.6%
Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
39.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 5
OPP 47
+20
38.3%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 43 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for 20 yds to the UNC 27 Duke Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Ryan Smith) to the UNC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:1862% → 76%
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
38.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
38.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+5
38.3%
Duke Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
50
+3
37.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the DUKE 47Similar
Q2 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
37.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 5 yds to the DUKE 42Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
38.0%
Duke Penalty, Offsides (Aaron Hall) to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
37.7%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+37
35.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 37 yds to the DUKE 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
35.0%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 6Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
34.9%
(07:15) HAMPTON, Omarion rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the DUKE1 (MOORE, Terry;HOWARD, Alex), clock 07:06. PENALTY UNC Holding on BLASKE, Austin enforced 10 yards from the DUKE6 to the DUKE16 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+1
34.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the DUKE 15Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
34.6%
Jacolby Criswell run for 5 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
24.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13MISSED FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 4:3228% → 26%
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
27.8%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the DUKE 25Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+8
27.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Javon Harvey for 8 yds to the DUKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
27.6%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 38Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
27.9%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
28.0%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+4
28.4%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-9
27.8%
Maalik Murphy sacked by Amare Campbell for a loss of 9 yards to the DUKE 46Similar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 19
OWN 46
0
25.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+13
25.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Peyton Jones for 13 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
26.3%
(01:59) MURPHY, Maalik pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Star thrown to the UNC35, clock 01:52. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on CAMPBELL, Amare enforced at the spot of the foul for 0 yards to the UNC41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
26.9%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+4
27.6%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
26.7%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+47
26.1%
Todd Pelino 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3181% → 78%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
19.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 9 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
18.3%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Vincent Anthony Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
19.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for no gain to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 6
OWN 34
+11
21.9%
Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 11 yds to the DUKE 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:1524% → 22%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
23.8%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for a loss of 2 yards to the DUKE 35Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
22.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
22.2%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0379% → 79%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
21.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 12Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+8
21.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 8 yds to the UNC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
21.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
20.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 2 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
20.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:50
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+5
20.7%
punt blocked by James Hopson II blocked by James Hopson II (12:50) Punt by MAGINNESS, Tom at the UNC24 is blocked by HOPSON II, James, recovered by UNC HARDY, Will at the UNC29, returned 0 yards to the UNC29, End of Play, clock 12:49. , returns for no gain to the UNC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 4:2680% → 92%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
19.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 30Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+38
19.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 38 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
17.3%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 35Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 13
OPP 35
+17
17.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 17 yds to the DUKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
16.3%
Javarius Green run for 8 yds to the DUKE 10Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+1
15.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the DUKE 9Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
15.8%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the DUKE 9Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-10
16.8%
(08:49) HAMPTON, Omarion rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the DUKE7 (MOORE, Terry;STINSON, Jaylen), clock 08:45. PENALTY UNC Holding on NESBIT, Bryson enforced 10 yards from the DUKE9 to the DUKE19. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 11
OPP 19
+37
8.5%
Noah Burnette 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:3313% → 27%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.9%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the DUKE 29Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
12.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
12.6%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 11 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
13.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the DUKE 49Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+10
13.4%
Star Thomas run for 10 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
11.8%
Star Thomas run for 19 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
12.5%
Duke Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Maalik Murphy) to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+29
26.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 29 yds for a TD Duke Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Que'Sean Brown) to the UNC 0 (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:0483% → 84%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
17.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 37Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
16.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
15.8%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Ryan Smith and Michael Reese for 0 yards to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+5
15.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 46 yds , Que'Sean Brown returns for 5 yds to the DUKE 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:0621% → 43%
Q3 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
21.4%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the DUKE 20Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
21.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 8 yds to the DUKE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+43
21.5%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Jordan Moore for 43 yds to the UNC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
24.2%
Star Thomas run for 6 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-3
24.0%
Star Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 26Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+6
22.0%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 6 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
21.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
23.3%
Star Thomas run for 15 yds to the UNC 2 Duke Penalty, Offensive Holding (Eli Pancol) to the UNC 12Similar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 5
OPP 12
0
22.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
22.5%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+10
21.0%
(14:30) MURPHY, Maalik pass to the right incomplete intended for HAGANS, Sahmir broken up by COST, Kaleb at the UNC0, clock 14:25. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on COST, Kaleb enforced 10 yards to the UNC2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.4%
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:1370% → 72%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
30.5%
Nate McCollum run for 2 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+20
29.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 20 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
26.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 15 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
25.1%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 46Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 11
OPP 46
0
24.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
25.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
28.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:5836% → 32%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
35.5%
Star Thomas run for 9 yds to the DUKE 22Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+27
36.4%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Eli Pancol for 27 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
37.6%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 9
50
+10
37.4%
Peyton Jones run for 10 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
37.8%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
37.6%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
36.0%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
32.3%
Maalik Murphy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:1877% → 65%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
22.9%
(09:48) CRISWELL, Jacolby scrambles to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the UNC44 (NICHOLAS, Ozzie;REESE, Michael), clock 09:42. PENALTY UNC Holding on GREEN, Trevyon enforced 10 yards UNC Unsportsmanlike Conduct on JONES, J.J. enforced 15 yards from the UNC30 to the UNC15 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 35
OWN 15
+5
26.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 30
OWN 20
+3
26.3%
Jacolby Criswell run for 3 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 27
OWN 23
+7
27.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
25.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 20 ydsSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
50
-10
35.5%
(07:30) THOMAS, Star rush to the left for no gain to the UNC50 (ATKINSON, Beau;ECHOLS, Power), clock 07:23. PENALTY DUKE Holding on FINA, Bruno enforced 10 yards from the UNC50 to the DUKE40 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:2130% → 70%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+16
30.1%
Maalik Murphy pass complete to Star Thomas for 16 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+19
35.1%
Star Thomas run for 19 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
36.9%
Peyton Jones run for 5 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
70.2%
Peyton Jones run for 20 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:4441% → 38%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
56.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 13 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
54.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-4
56.2%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 41Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
59.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
62.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Que'Sean Brown at the DUKE 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 2:0864% → 72%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
64.4%
Star Thomas run for 4 yds to the DUKE 27Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+8
68.2%
Star Thomas run for 8 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
68.7%
Star Thomas run for 11 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
74.1%
Star Thomas run for 1 yd to the DUKE 47Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+3
73.6%
Star Thomas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 6
50
+5
75.8%
Star Thomas run for 5 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
72.4%
Kade Reynoldson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:0531% → 31%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
68.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the UNC 12Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 12
0
68.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+3
71.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 3 yds to the UNC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
69.5%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+19
68.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 19 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
67.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-5
69.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass intercepted Tre Freeman return for 5 yds to the UNC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
91.3%
(00:16) Kneel down by DUKE at UNC44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:10.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:42
Peyton Jones run for 20 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+33.3
TD · Q4 14:21
Star Thomas run for 2 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)
+22.4
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:16
(00:16) Kneel down by DUKE at UNC44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:10.
+21.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com