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CONN

UConn 27 at North Carolina 14

UNC
2024 · Wasabi Fenway Bowl · Dec 28, 2024 · Fenway Park
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreCONN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD+13.1UNC 16.3%Caleb Hood pass complete to JohnCopenhaver for 17 yds for a TD (NoahBurnette KICK)AWAY 27 - HOME 14 · Q4 6:46
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:46 · Caleb Hood pass complete to John Copenhaver for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−22.1Score differential−9.6Pregame prior+1.3Garbage-time factor−10.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:24: Chris Freeman kickoff for 60 yds , Chris Culliver return for 95 yds for a TD (Lucas Osada KICK) — UNC win probability +4.4 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:10: Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +4.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:54: Cam Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK) — CONN win probability +14.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:40: Chris Freeman 24 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +7.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:46: Caleb Hood pass complete to John Copenhaver for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +13.1 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 9 of 9CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:46CONN 4th & 6 at UNC 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08CONN 4th & 1 at UNC 49, up 3
    Close callPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:16UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:16UNC 4th & 28 at UNC 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:37CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:48UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:54CONN 4th & 2 at UNC 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    60.9%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:36UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.9%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:40CONN 4th & 6 at UNC 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−9.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:21UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:19CONN 4th & 4 at UNC 34, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:05UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 34, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:55CONN 4th & 14 at UNC 48, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:16CONN 4th & 11 at CONN 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:40UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:14UNC 4th & 1 at CONN 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CONN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:45CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:24UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:10CONN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:54CONN Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:46UNC Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CONNDrive 1FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 4:0438% → 39%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+47
61.9%
Mel Brown run for 47 yds to the UNC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
61.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
61.7%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+6
61.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
61.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the UNC 12Similar
Q1 12:03
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
61.4%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the UNC 12Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 4
OPP 12
-2
61.4%
Nick Evers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 14Similar
Q1 10:46
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
61.4%
Chris Freeman 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5661% → 61%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
61.4%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UNC 28Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+7
61.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q1 9:04
3RD & 2
OWN 35
-1
61.3%
Davion Gause run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 34Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
60.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CONN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0539% → 40%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
61.0%
Joe Fagnano run for 6 yds to the CONN 37Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
60.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 5 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
60.4%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
60.5%
Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the CONN 46Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
60.5%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacolbe Cowan) to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
60.2%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 1
OPP 49
0
60.5%
Connor Stutz punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4060% → 59%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
60.3%
Davion Gause run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 11
OWN 18
-5
60.1%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Caleb Hood) to the UNC 13Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 16
OWN 13
+7
60.0%
Jacolby Criswell run for 7 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
59.5%
Michael Merdinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:16
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
59.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 31 yds, downed at the CONN 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5TD
2 plays · 51 yds · 0:1541% → 45%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
59.5%
Nick Evers run for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
55.5%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 38 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 3:5040% → 48%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
60.1%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 22Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
60.1%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Louis HansenSimilar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+17
60.2%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 17 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
58.8%
Cam Edwards run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
50
+3
58.4%
Mel Brown run for 3 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
58.2%
Mel Brown run for 8 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
58.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
58.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+10
57.7%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 10 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
56.8%
Joe Fagnano run for 7 yds to the UNC 19Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+15
56.7%
Fagnano, Joe pass incomplete to Hansen, Louis, PENALTY UNC personal foul (Campbell, Amare) 15 yards to the UNC4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCONN.Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
56.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Joshua Harris) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
52.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -18 yds · 1:5452% → 48%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
51.6%
Tyrane Stewart run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+6
50.3%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to John Copenhaver for 6 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
-12
49.3%
Michael Merdinger sacked by Donovan Branch for a loss of 12 yards to the UNC 21 Michael Merdinger fumbled, forced by Donovan Branch, recovered by UNCSimilar
Q2 11:30
4TH & 23
OWN 21
-5
48.2%
North Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNC 16Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 28
OWN 16
0
48.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 53 yds, downed at the CONN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2550% → 49%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
49.9%
Victor Rosa run for no gain to the CONN 31Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
50.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the CONN 32Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
50.5%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 9
OWN 32
+51
50.9%
Connor Stutz punt for 51 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:2248% → 45%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
47.8%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-5
47.7%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Trevyon Green) to the UNC 15Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 11
OWN 15
-1
47.3%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 14Similar
Q2 8:00
3RD & 12
OWN 14
-5
45.6%
North Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNC 9Similar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+11
44.5%
Darwin Barlow run for 11 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
44.5%
Tom Maginness punt for 36 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11TD
16 plays · 56 yds · 5:5256% → 76%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
44.2%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler BellSimilar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
44.0%
Mel Brown run for 9 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
43.6%
Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
43.1%
North Carolina Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UNC 39Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 5
OPP 39
0
42.7%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Mel BrownSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+9
42.5%
Mel Brown run for 9 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
42.0%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 1 yd to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
41.7%
Mel Brown run for 8 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
41.4%
Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the UNC 17 Mel Brown fumbled, forced by Jacolbe Cowan, recovered by CONN Wes Hoeh for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
40.4%
Joe Fagnano run for no gain to the UNC 17Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
39.0%
Cam Edwards run for 13 yds to the UNC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
38.8%
Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Louis HansenSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
38.7%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the UNC 2Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.2%
Cam Edwards run for no gain to the UNC 2Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
24.8%
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)Similar
Q2 0:54
4TH & 0
OPP 3
-5
24.4%
UConn Penalty, False Start (Carter Boskovich) to the UNC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:2932% → 33%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
32.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the UNC 35Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+23
29.9%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to John Copenhaver for 23 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
32.4%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Caleb Hood for 8 yds to the CONN 34Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 2
OPP 34
-3
32.5%
Michael Merdinger pass intercepted Tui Faumuina-Brown return for 3 yds to the CONN 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
26.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1429% → 28%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
29.3%
Davion Gause run for 12 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
29.4%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UNC 38Similar
Q3 13:42
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
29.0%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to J.J. Jones for 5 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
28.6%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 2 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+1
28.0%
Michael Merdinger run for 1 yd to the UNC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:4876% → 90%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
23.6%
Cam Edwards run for 8 yds to the UNC 38Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
22.6%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 4 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
21.8%
Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
0
21.1%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for no gain to the UNC 28Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
20.8%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
19.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 6 yds to the UNC 17Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+11
19.5%
Victor Rosa run for 11 yds to the UNC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
19.2%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UNC 5Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
18.7%
Victor Rosa run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 6Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
18.0%
Nick Evers pass incomplete to Brett BuckmanSimilar
Q3 7:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
10.1%
Chris Freeman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3915% → 12%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
14.8%
Caleb Hood run for 8 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-2
13.4%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 30Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-7
12.4%
Michael Merdinger sacked by Aaron Key for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 23Similar
Q3 5:21
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
11.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 29 yds · 4:0293% → 95%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
6.8%
UConn Penalty, False Start (Chase Lundt) to the CONN 32Similar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+4
7.2%
Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the CONN 36Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+7
6.8%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 7 yds to the CONN 43Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+32
6.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 32 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
5.7%
UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tank Green) to the UNC 40Similar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
5.8%
Mel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 41Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 11
OPP 41
-5
5.6%
UConn Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNC 46Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+5
5.3%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to Mel Brown for 5 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+7
4.4%
Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 7 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+52
5.4%
Chris Freeman 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:557% → 5%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-9
6.6%
Michael Merdinger sacked by Matt Hoffman for a loss of 9 yards to the UNC 25Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 19
OWN 25
+11
5.7%
Darwin Barlow run for 11 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 8
OWN 36
-2
5.7%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to John Copenhaver for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 34Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+10
4.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 35 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 10 yds to the CONN 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:5896% → 96%
Q4 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
4.3%
Victor Rosa run for 7 yds to the CONN 48Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
4.1%
Joe Fagnano run for 8 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
3.8%
Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+2
3.6%
Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q4 11:29
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-7
3.3%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 48Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 14
OPP 48
0
3.6%
Connor Stutz punt for 44 yds, downed at the UNC 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 3:413% → 16%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
3.1%
Caleb Hood run for 10 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
3.1%
Caleb Hood run for 11 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
3.0%
Caleb Hood run for 16 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
3.1%
Caleb Hood run for 11 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
3.0%
Caleb Hood run for 16 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
3.3%
Darwin Barlow run for 14 yds to the CONN 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
3.2%
Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the CONN 17Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
16.3%
Caleb Hood pass complete to John Copenhaver for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1993% → 95%
Q4 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
7.0%
Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 39Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
6.1%
Mel Brown run for 1 yd to the CONN 40Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-6
5.8%
Joe Fagnano sacked by Cade Law for a loss of 6 yards to the CONN 34Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
5.3%
Connor Stutz punt for 50 yds, downed at the UNC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:028% → 5%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
8.1%
North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Malik McGowan) to the UNC 11Similar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+2
7.9%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+3
5.0%
Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the UNC 16Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
4.5%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 9 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+22
4.6%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 22 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
5.3%
Michael Merdinger sacked by Pryce Yates for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+13
4.0%
Michael Merdinger pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 13 yds to the CONN 44Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
5.0%
Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the CONN 44Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
4.5%
Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:0498% → 98%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
2.3%
Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the CONN 49Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
2.2%
Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 4
50
+10
2.1%
Cam Edwards run for 10 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:54
Cam Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q4 6:46
Caleb Hood pass complete to John Copenhaver for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+13.1
FG · Q3 7:40
Chris Freeman 24 yd FG GOOD
-7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com