North Carolina

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2376th
  Defense+0.2025th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.4%78th
  Defense45.8%24th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3581st
  Defense+1.2943rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.3298th
  Defense+0.1629th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1835th
  Defense+0.2923rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.1%65th
  Defense53.0%8th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense37.9%92nd
  Defense29.1%62nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.4188th
  Defense3.2917th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.8%38th
  Defense13.1%16th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.1%36th
  Defense15.2%26th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what North Carolina allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   VT
2. W
   GAST
3. W
   UVA
4. L
   GT
5. W
   DUKE
6. L
   FSU
7. W
   MIA
8. L
   ND
9. W
   WAKE
10. L
    PITT
11. W
    WOF
12. L
    NCSU
13. L
    SC

Bars above the line: better than expected for North Carolina.

Players, 2021

1. Sam HowellQB452 plays · +0.294 pts/play · 12th of 219 QBs
   2.49WAR1.59 to 3.35
2. Ty ChandlerRB169 plays · +0.206 pts/play · 37th of 387 RBs
   0.65WAR0.47 to 0.81
3. Josh DownsWR103 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 23rd of 474 WRs
   0.29WAR0.16 to 0.41
4. Antoine GreenWR45 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 151st of 474 WRs
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.20
5. DJ JonesRB59 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 258th of 387 RBs
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.18
6. Ben KiernanP41 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 39th of 101 punters
   0.12WAR0.05 to 0.20
7. Grayson AtkinsPK20 plays · +0.314 pts/play · 22nd of 128 kickers
   0.12WAR0.06 to 0.17
8. Emery SimmonsWR17 plays · +0.124 pts/play · 406th of 474 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.05

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares North Carolina's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  79879817th of 130Roster talent: 798, 17th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  23823820th of 130Recruiting: 238, 20th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  51%51%103rd of 128Returning production: 51%, 103rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.4+6.459th of 130SP+ rating: +6.4, 59th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than North Carolina's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.13 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs WAKEQ4 2:12 4th & 3 at WAKE 7, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−4.9 pts
2. at NCSUQ4 7:44 4th & 4 at NCSU 4, up 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
3. at NDQ3 10:20 4th & 1 at UNC 27, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. at PITTQ2 9:36 4th & 1 at UNC 33, down 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
5. at NCSUQ4 2:12 4th & 3 at NCSU 33, up 6Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
6. at GTQ3 8:29 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
7. vs DUKEQ3 12:19 4th & 2 at DUKE 48, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. at NCSUQ1 6:02 4th & 1 at UNC 20, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

125th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up North Carolina's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   VT
2. W

   GAST
3. W

   UVA
4. L

   GT
5. W

   DUKE
6. L

   FSU
7. W

   MIA
8. L

   ND
9. W

   WAKE
10. L

    PITT
11. W

    WOF
12. L

    NCSU
13. L

    SC

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at North Carolina's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−1.71
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock−0.14
• Timeouts+0.08
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.84

Game by game

• VTL 10-17 at VT66% → 4%Before kickoff +16 · On the field −62: Scoreboard −43, Timeouts −3
• GASTW 59-17 vs GAST94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +7
• UVAW 59-39 vs UVA66% → 100%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +34, Possession & field position −1
• GTL 22-45 at GT82% → 0%Before kickoff +32 · On the field −82: Scoreboard −61, Clock +1
• DUKEW 38-7 vs DUKE90% → 100%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +13
• FSUL 25-35 vs FSU87% → 4%Before kickoff +37 · On the field −83: Scoreboard −56, Clock −3
• MIAW 45-42 vs MIA66% → 96%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2
• NDL 34-44 at ND41% → 4%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −37: Scoreboard −35, Timeouts −1
• WAKEW 58-55 vs WAKE57% → 93%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +35, Possession & field position −1
• PITTL 23-30 at PITT29% → 8%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts +14
• WOFW 34-14 vs WOF99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• NCSUL 30-34 at NCSU32% → 18%Before kickoff −18 · On the field −15: Scoreboard −21, Possession & field position +3
• SCL 21-38 at SC81% → 1%Before kickoff +31 · On the field −80: Scoreboard −53, Possession & field position −2

Points of win probability, from North Carolina's side.

Closest call

SC 17-31 UNC (2023) - North Carolina dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.