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UNC

North Carolina 23 at Pittsburgh 30

PITT
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 11, 2021 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:38 · Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 49Pregame prior+15.1Home team on offense+7.5Score differential+2.7Garbage-time factor+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:24: Antoine Green 76 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick) — UNC win probability +7.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:40: Jared Wayne 32 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton PAT failed) — PITT win probability +8.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:34: Sam Howell 1 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick) — UNC win probability +22.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:57: Grayson Atkins 20 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +24.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Lucas Krull 11 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) — PITT win probability +16.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:32PITT 4th & 1 at UNC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:45UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:10PITT 4th & 3 at UNC 16, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%−0.3
    81% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−2.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:19PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 30, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.3%−2.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:36UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 33, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:19PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:24UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 25, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:16PITT 4th & 2 at UNC 13, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.9
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−4.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:26UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 23, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−1.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:59PITT 4th & 16 at PITT 17, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:47PITT 4th & 24 at UNC 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:12UNC 4th & 4 at PITT 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−1.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:48PITT 4th & 11 at UNC 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:34UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−6.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−10.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:57UNC 4th & 3 at PITT 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−<0.1
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.9%
    93% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−31.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:00PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:09PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:24UNC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:40PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:39UNC Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:34UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−1.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1DOWNS
14 plays · 69 yds · 3:2271% → 70%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
70.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Storm Duck) to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+16
70.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
50
0
70.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 10
50
+3
70.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 3 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+21
70.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 21 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
70.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 11 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
70.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
70.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Carter Warren) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+2
70.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+12
70.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 12 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
70.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:4530% → 30%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
70.2%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-1
70.1%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 7
OWN 9
-8
70.2%
Sam Howell sacked by SirVocea Dennis for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 15
OWN 1
+22
70.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 22 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
4 plays · 20 yds · 1:0071% → 73%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
70.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 5 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
70.4%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+10
70.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 10 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.6%
Vincent Davis 2 Yd Run (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5428% → 28%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
71.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+2
72.0%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+11
72.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+25
72.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Jordan Addison returns for 25 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:2173% → 77%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+44
73.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 44 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
73.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.9%
Gavin Bartholomew 1 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2425% → 24%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
75.4%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+1
75.0%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-5
75.8%
Sam Howell sacked by John Morgan III for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
76.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds , Jordan Addison returns for no gain to the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:3577% → 81%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
77.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+10
77.3%
Israel Abanikanda run for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+42
77.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 42 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
78.7%
Jared Wayne pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
78.7%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 0:15
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
78.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+34
80.6%
Sam Scarton 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:2720% → 19%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.3%
D.J. Jones run for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.1%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
80.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-5
80.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Calijah Kancey for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 15
OWN 31
0
81.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 2:1182% → 83%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
82.2%
Jordan Addison run for 12 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
83.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 5
OWN 45
0
83.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-10
83.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-9
83.1%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 24
OWN 26
+4
82.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 11:19
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
82.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2918% → 17%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
82.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+9
82.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
82.4%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+31
82.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the PITTSBURGH 21 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0185% → 85%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.0%
Israel Abanikanda run for 1 yd to the Pitt 37Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
85.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
85.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
85.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:4617% → 24%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
83.2%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
83.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 25
OWN 18
+6
83.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+76
76.4%
Antoine Green 76 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:3076% → 86%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
76.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
50
+5
77.7%
Jordan Addison run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
77.9%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+10
77.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
85.9%
Jared Wayne 32 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:0617% → 15%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
82.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (-13 Yards) to the NCaro 12Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 23
OWN 13
+11
82.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 11 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 12
OWN 24
-1
83.1%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+2
83.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 2 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
84.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 1:5987% → 85%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
87.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 6 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
88.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
88.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 9 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
88.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
88.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 16 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
89.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
89.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 7
OPP 18
-15
88.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 22
OPP 33
+20
87.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 20 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+31
85.2%
Sam Scarton 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jahlil TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
84.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Tamarion Crumpley and Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 52 yds · 5:2915% → 15%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
84.6%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+12
85.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 12 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
84.5%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
84.2%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
84.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+5
85.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 5 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+15
85.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.3%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
84.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
84.1%
D.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
83.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+5
85.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 5 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 1
OPP 23
0
84.7%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2088% → 90%
Q3 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
87.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
87.5%
Israel Abanikanda run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-10
87.4%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jeremiah Gemmel for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 16
OWN 17
+7
89.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Josh Downs returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:0114% → 21%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
85.8%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+13
86.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 13 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
85.7%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+11
85.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Justin Olson for 11 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
84.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
85.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q3 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+23
79.1%
Antoine Green 23 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20MISSED FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 4:3382% → 84%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
83.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
83.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
82.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 12 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
84.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 7 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
84.4%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
84.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 7 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+4
84.8%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
84.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Cedric Gray for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 14
OPP 25
-10
85.0%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 24
OPP 35
0
85.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre TiptonSimilar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 24
OPP 35
+53
83.6%
Sam Scarton 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:2316% → 14%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
83.8%
Sam Howell run for 20 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
81.8%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
82.0%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
82.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
85.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:5787% → 87%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
87.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
87.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaden Bradley for 7 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
87.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 4 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
88.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+4
88.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 11
OPP 49
0
88.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 11
OPP 49
0
87.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Rodney Hammond Jr.Similar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 11
OPP 49
+41
87.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 34 yds, downed at the NCaro 15 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 5:5611% → 35%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
88.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 9 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 17
+2
88.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
89.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Justin Olson for 13 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
88.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+16
89.1%
Sam Howell run for 16 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
88.0%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+46
88.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 46 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.8%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
86.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 6Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
86.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 5 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.0%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.3%
Sam Howell 1 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Jeremiah Gemmel return for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25FG
14 plays · 32 yds · 4:1839% → 55%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
61.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 8 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 2
OPP 27
-10
60.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+11
65.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 11 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+4
62.5%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
60.2%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
66.1%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+16
66.1%
Ty Chandler run for 16 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
65.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-5
61.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 7Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
64.8%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
66.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 5 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
45.1%
Grayson Atkins 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:5157% → 64%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
56.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 8 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
59.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Israel AbanikandaSimilar
Q4 0:08
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+13
57.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Israel Abanikanda for 13 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
63.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+8
65.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+6
63.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
82.3%
Lucas Krull 11 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28Uncategorized
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0020% → 9%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
80.1%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 26Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
83.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
88.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 26
-13
91.5%
Sam Howell pass intercepted M.J. Devonshire return for 13 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:57
Grayson Atkins 20 Yd Field Goal
-24.4
TD · Q4 5:34
Sam Howell 1 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)
-22.7
TD · OT 0:00
Lucas Krull 11 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)
+16.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com