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MIA

Miami 42 at North Carolina 45

UNC
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 16, 2021 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.7UNC 83.7%Grayson Atkins 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 31 · Q2 0:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Grayson Atkins 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense+15.1Pregame prior+8.0Garbage-time factor+4.2Score differential+5.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.7Time remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:22: Cody Brown run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +10.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:21: Sam Howell run for 30 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +10.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:25: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 60 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +15.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:22: Sam Howell run for 11 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +16.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:08: Jaylan Knighton 4 Yd Run (Tyler Van Dyke Pass to Charleston Rambo for Two-Point Conversion) — MIA win probability +30.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:03MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:00MIA 4th & 19 at UNC 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:07UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:05UNC 4th & 16 at MIA 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00UNC 4th & 13 at MIA 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00MIA 4th & 10 at UNC 29, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:56MIA 4th & 10 at UNC 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:42UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−2.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:19UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−6.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:42MIA 4th & 3 at UNC 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−3.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    30.5%−2.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:19MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:40UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 47, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:46UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−2.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:57UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:56MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:03UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:46UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:16UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:33MIA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:22MIA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:21UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:25MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 9:22UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:08MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0366% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.1%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
66.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
66.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
66.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
66.1%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
67.2%
Ty Chandler run for 51 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:5433% → 33%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
66.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
67.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-33
66.2%
Jahfari Harvey 33 Yd Interception Return (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5366% → 69%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.9%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
66.2%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
66.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
66.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+1
66.4%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+45
68.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 45 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:0332% → 32%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
67.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
67.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 13 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
67.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
67.2%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Rambo,Charleston PENALTY UNC Offside declined UNC Holding (Grimes,Tony) 10 yards from UNC43 to UNC33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
66.9%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Smith,Keyshawn PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (Rucker,Kaimon) 15 yards from UNC33 to UNC18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
66.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+1
66.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 10
OPP 18
-9
67.2%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 19
OPP 27
+44
67.7%
Andres Borregales 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5367% → 66%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
66.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
66.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to D.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+12
66.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 37 , Jacolby George returns for 12 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1733% → 33%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
67.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 1 yd to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+4
67.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
67.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
67.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 6:0467% → 76%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
66.7%
PENALTY UNC False Start 5 yards from UNC19 to UNC14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+15
66.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (James Williams) to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
67.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
66.9%
Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
67.8%
Ty Chandler run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+12
68.1%
Sam Howell run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
68.5%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
68.5%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
68.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
68.5%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+13
68.5%
Sam Howell run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
68.5%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
68.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
68.0%
PENALTY MIA Offside (Ford,Jonathan) 3 yards from MIA05 to MIA02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 2 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:5026% → 26%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
74.5%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
74.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:4076% → 83%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
75.6%
D.J. Jones run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+1
75.6%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
75.6%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-4
75.6%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Richards,Asim) 4 yards from MIA10 to MIA14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:56
2ND & 13
OPP 14
0
75.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+2
75.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 2 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 11
OPP 12
+6
75.2%
Atkins,Grayson field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD nullified by penalty, clock 06:58 PENALTY MIA Roughing The Kicker (Williams,James) 6 yards from MIA12 to MIA06, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
76.7%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
83.4%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:4318% → 25%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
82.0%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Rambo,Charleston PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony) 15 yards from MIA25 to MIA40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+20
81.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 20 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
80.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
80.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 11 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
79.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 23 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
79.5%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Rambo,Charleston PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Grimes,Tony) 3 yards from UNC05 to UNC02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
74.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:2876% → 83%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.4%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
76.3%
D.J. Jones run for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
76.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
77.5%
Sam Howell run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
77.6%
Sam Howell run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
77.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+1
77.7%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 6
OPP 25
-10
77.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Keontra Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 16
OPP 35
+52
83.0%
Grayson Atkins 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1018% → 18%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
81.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Cam'Ron HarrisSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
81.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FG
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:5585% → 84%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
84.5%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
84.4%
Howell,Sam pass incomplete to Green,Antoine PENALTY MIA Roughing The Passer (McCloud,Zach) 15 yards from MIA42 to MIA27, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
84.9%
D.J. Jones run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
86.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-7
85.5%
Sam Howell sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OPP 30
+48
83.7%
Grayson Atkins 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3817% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
82.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
81.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
50
+3
80.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+7
81.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 7 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+11
80.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
79.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+6
80.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 6 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+7
82.4%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+11
82.2%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 11 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
79.7%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Smith,Keyshawn, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (McMichael,Kyler) 15 yards from UNC18 to UNC03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
68.9%
Cody Brown run for 3 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0175% → 88%
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+41
74.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 41 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
77.6%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+1
77.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 1 yd to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+30
87.6%
Sam Howell run for 30 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 2:2515% → 18%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
85.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
84.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+14
84.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
84.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
84.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 11 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+16
83.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 16 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
82.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
82.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-5
83.3%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Rambo,Charleston) 5 yards from UNC20 to UNC25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
83.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
81.8%
Andres Borregales 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0784% → 83%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.1%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
83.5%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+3
82.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 3:42
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+22
83.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 35 , Jacolby George returns for 22 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 1:1716% → 33%
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
83.8%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 3:42
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
82.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for no gain to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+60
67.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 60 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0672% → 69%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
72.0%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
71.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Keontra Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+2
69.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , Jacolby George returns for 2 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:3732% → 33%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Larry HodgesSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
68.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 14 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.6%
Cody Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
65.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
65.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
67.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 4:2075% → 92%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
74.5%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
75.0%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-5
73.9%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Tucker,Jordan) 5 yards from UNC48 to UNC43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+15
72.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Bubba Bolden) to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
76.6%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+14
76.6%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Tyrique Stevenson) to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
76.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Jr. Corey Flagg for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+6
75.8%
Ty Chandler run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
92.0%
Sam Howell run for 11 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:039% → 8%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.7%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
90.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
91.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q4 9:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
91.7%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Smith,Keontra) 5 yards from MIA24 to MIA19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
92.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3992% → 92%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
92.3%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+5
92.2%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
91.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
92.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
14 plays · 97 yds · 3:328% → 40%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
92.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+4
92.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 7
-3
92.7%
PENALTY MIA False Start (Smith,Keyshawn) 3 yards from MIA07 to MIA04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 9
OWN 4
+16
92.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 16 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+30
92.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to for 15 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+25
91.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 25 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
89.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
89.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+8
90.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 8 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
88.6%
Van Dyke,Tyler pass incomplete to Restrepo,Xavier PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Gemmel,Jeremiah) 15 yards from UNC29 to UNC14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-11
88.6%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Giovanni Biggers for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 21
OPP 25
0
89.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+21
90.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 21 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.9%
Jaylan Knighton 4 Yd Run (Tyler Van Dyke Pass to Charleston Rambo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:2082% → 86%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
82.1%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
83.2%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+5
84.7%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
86.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27INT
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:4014% → 18%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
85.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 13 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
85.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+3
83.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
81.9%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
80.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 12 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
80.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jaylan KnightonSimilar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
80.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 6 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q4 0:06
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
81.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
95.7%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:08
Jaylan Knighton 4 Yd Run (Tyler Van Dyke Pass to Charleston Rambo for Two-Point Conversion)
-30.7
TD · Q4 9:22
Sam Howell run for 11 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+16.2
TD · Q3 2:25
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 60 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com