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UNC

North Carolina 30 at NC State 34

NCSU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2021 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.1NCSU 71.6%Grayson Atkins 22 Yd Field GoalAWAY 3 - HOME 14 · Q2 14:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:06 · Grayson Atkins 22 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Home team on offense+3.3Pregame prior+12.9Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:05: Sam Howell 12 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick) — UNC win probability +14.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:03: Justin Olson 17 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick) — UNC win probability +15.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:32: Thayer Thomas 26 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick) — NCSU win probability +23.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 1:35: Emeka Emezie 64 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick) — NCSU win probability +28.8 pts (now 35%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:09: Emeka Emezie 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — NCSU win probability +55.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:37UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:12UNC 4th & 7 at NCSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:07NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:02UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 20, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:06UNC 4th & 4 at NCSU 5, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.9%−0.3
    92% to make
    Punt
    19.9%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:11NCSU 4th & 9 at UNC 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:00UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:18UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:38NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 42, up 11
    Close callPunted · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00UNC 4th & 1 at NCSU 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−1.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:07NCSU 4th & 12 at UNC 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:37NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−4.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:58UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−3.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:16NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:44UNC 4th & 4 at NCSU 4, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%−1.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−21.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:28NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:12UNC 4th & 3 at NCSU 33, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%−1.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:37NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:14NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:02UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:05UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:03UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:32NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:35NCSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:09NCSU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    80.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT TD
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0033% → 32%
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.5%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 14:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
67.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-4
67.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Daniel Joseph and Tanner Ingle for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
67.9%
C.J. Riley 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:0132% → 32%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
67.9%
Ty Chandler run for 23 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
67.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
67.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q1 12:19
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
67.9%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:12
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+42
68.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 13 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:2768% → 69%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
68.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 13
+9
68.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 9 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
68.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+10
68.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
69.0%
Thayer Thomas pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
69.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-2
68.9%
Devin Leary sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 9
OWN 40
-5
68.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Devon Betty) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
68.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5831% → 30%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
69.1%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
69.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 7 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
69.5%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
69.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:2670% → 76%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
69.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+17
70.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 17 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
70.9%
Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+7
71.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
71.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 16 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
71.6%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Grant Gibson) to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
75.8%
Trent Pennix 9 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FG
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:3926% → 28%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
74.0%
British Brooks run for 40 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
73.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Justin Olson for 11 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
72.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
73.1%
British Brooks run for 6 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
73.3%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 2
OPP 3
-2
73.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Vi Jones and Davin Vann for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 5Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
71.6%
Grayson Atkins 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4573% → 75%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
74.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 10 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+22
74.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 22 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
75.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
75.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
75.8%
Devin Leary run for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 9
OPP 40
0
75.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:4426% → 24%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
74.2%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 9
-5
74.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Antoine Green) to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 15
OWN 4
+9
74.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+2
75.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 4
OWN 15
+15
76.3%
Ben Kiernan punt blocked by Vi Jones for a 1ST down blocked by Vi Jones for a 1ST down for a 1ST down Garrett Walston run for 15 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
74.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Jaylon Scott for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+5
75.6%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+6
76.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
76.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2577% → 77%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
76.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+1
78.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
77.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
76.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:2923% → 38%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
76.8%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Green, Antoine, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Pitts Jr., Derrek) 15 yards to the NCSTATE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
75.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
76.2%
British Brooks run for 3 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
76.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 6 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+16
76.3%
British Brooks run for 16 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
74.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 20 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.5%
Sam Howell 4 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:3168% → 66%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
68.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
69.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
69.0%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Grant Gibson) to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+38
68.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 38 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
71.9%
Devin Leary sacked by Cedric Gray and Tomon Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 19
OPP 40
0
68.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+7
67.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+50
66.4%
Christopher Dunn 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
66.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13FUMBLE
9 plays · 13 yds · 4:0168% → 70%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
68.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+3
68.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 3 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
67.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 8 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
70.3%
Devin Leary sacked by Jeremiah Gemmel and Chris Collins for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 19
OWN 38
0
71.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 19
OWN 38
+15
70.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for no gain Ricky Person Jr. fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Gemmel, recovered by NCaro Cedric Gray , return for 15 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:0536% → 51%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
64.3%
British Brooks run for 9 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+2
64.3%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
64.3%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the NCSt 12Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
64.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 12
+12
49.5%
Sam Howell 12 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:2155% → 51%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
54.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
53.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
52.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 10
OWN 27
-5
51.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Devon Betty) to the NCSt 22Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
51.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:0451% → 69%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
49.2%
Sam Howell run for 24 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
47.1%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+11
46.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
46.2%
British Brooks run for 11 yds to the NCSt 12 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 22Similar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 9
OPP 22
+5
45.9%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+17
30.9%
Justin Olson 17 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 5:0834% → 55%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
33.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 12 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
32.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
33.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
50
+7
34.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
34.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
33.0%
Thayer Thomas run for 11 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
33.6%
Devin Leary sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+6
32.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 0:32
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+26
55.3%
Thayer Thomas 26 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0353% → 55%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
47.0%
British Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
47.3%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+21
47.3%
British Brooks run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
50
-6
41.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 44 Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Daniel Joseph, recovered by NCaro Sam Howell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+7
44.7%
British Brooks run for 7 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-3
40.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 12
OWN 48
+20
45.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 32 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 20 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1951% → 43%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
50.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
47.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
46.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+26
43.0%
Trenton Gill punt blocked by Alex Nobles blocked by Alex NoblesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 2:2462% → 74%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+35
38.4%
Ty Chandler run for 35 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
34.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin OlsonSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+20
33.8%
Sam Howell run for 20 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
31.7%
British Brooks run for 5 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
31.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+7
32.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 7:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
30.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
31.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
25.8%
Grayson Atkins 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2233% → 27%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
32.7%
Devin Leary sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+3
30.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-2
28.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+51
26.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds , Josh Downs returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 2:3280% → 95%
Q4 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
20.0%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+10
17.7%
Sam Howell run for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
14.8%
Sam Howell run for 24 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
12.1%
British Brooks run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 3:05
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
11.6%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
9.7%
British Brooks run for no gain to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+50
5.1%
Grayson Atkins 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 0:256% → 35%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-8
6.0%
Devin Leary sacked by Raymond Vohasek for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+64
34.9%
Emeka Emezie 64 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 54 yds · 0:2640% → 95%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
39.6%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Emeka Emezie) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 15
OWN 41
0
36.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+5
35.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tomon Fox) to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
37.1%
Leary, Devin pass incomplete to Carter, Devin, PENALTY UNC roughing passer (Vohasek, Raymond) 15 yards to the UNC39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
41.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
39.3%
Leary, Devin pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Duck, Storm) 15 yards to the UNC24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
95.3%
Emeka Emezie 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25INT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:5813% → 18%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
86.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
84.1%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-5
83.4%
Howell, Sam pass complete to Jones, J.J. for 14 yards to the NCSTATE40, PENALTY UNC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UNC41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+19
86.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 19 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
79.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+10
80.6%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Downs, Josh, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Pitts Jr., Derrek) 10 yards to the NCSTATE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
82.2%
Sam Howell pass intercepted, touchback. Derrek Pitts Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:09
Emeka Emezie 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+55.9
TD · Q4 1:35
Emeka Emezie 64 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)
+28.8
TD · Q3 0:32
Thayer Thomas 26 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)
+23.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com