NC State

Profile vs. FBS, 2026

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2064th
  Defense+0.2116th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense44.1%57th
  Defense44.4%24th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2863rd
  Defense+1.3224th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense0.0022nd
  Defense+0.1035th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.4283rd
  Defense+0.418th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.1%47th
  Defense49.1%27th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.1%77th
  Defense33.3%25th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7822nd
  Defense2.8753rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.5%29th
  Defense21.3%71st
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.1%42nd
  Defense16.0%53rd

Percentiles among the 138 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2026

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what NC State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   UVA
2. W
   RICH
3. L
   VAN
4. W
   APP
5. W
   LOU
6. L
   WAKE

Bars above the line: better than expected for NC State.

Players, 2026

1. CJ BaileyQB186 plays · +0.121 pts/play · 29th of 192 QBs
   0.42WAR0.14 to 0.72
2. Will WilsonQB22 plays · +0.455 pts/play · 101st of 192 QBs
   0.19WAR0.11 to 0.26
3. Davion GauseRB64 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 62nd of 320 RBs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.16
4. Jayden ScottRB51 plays · +0.105 pts/play · 73rd of 320 RBs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
5. Preston DouglasTE27 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 2nd of 164 TEs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.11
6. Joshisa TraderWR22 plays · +0.148 pts/play · 112th of 364 WRs
   0.06WAR0.04 to 0.09
7. Keenan JacksonWR29 plays · +0.109 pts/play · 121st of 364 WRs
   0.06WAR0.02 to 0.10
8. Victor SnowWR17 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 155th of 364 WRs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares NC State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2026

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  75775732nd of 138Roster talent: 757, 32nd of 138 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  21321334th of 138Recruiting: 213, 34th of 138 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  60%60%41st of 136Returning production: 60%, 41st of 136 in FBS
• SP+ rating so far

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −1.3−1.378th of 138SP+ rating so far: −1.3, 78th of 138 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 138 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion so far

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2026

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than NC State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.14 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at VANQ4 0:00 4th & 7 at NCSU 5, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored punting−11.8 pts
2. vs LOUQ4 5:30 4th & 4 at LOU 11, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
3. vs LOUQ4 11:23 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. vs WAKEQ2 4:37 4th & 6 at WAKE 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. at VANQ4 2:04 4th & 7 at VAN 31, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.1 pts
6. at UVAQ4 6:37 4th & 3 at NCSU 32, down 23Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2026

101st of 138 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up NC State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   UVA
2. W

   RICH
3. L

   VAN
4. W

   APP
5. W

   LOU
6. L

   WAKE

What moved it, 2026

Every game starts at NC State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.53
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts−0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04

Game by game

• UVAL 8-34 at UVA47% → 0%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −42, Timeouts −2
• RICHW 73-0 vs RICH98% → 100%Before kickoff +48 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +3
• VANL 31-35 at VAN43% → 9%Before kickoff −7 · On the field −34: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −2
• APPW 41-31 vs APP82% → 97%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +22, Timeouts +1
• LOUW 31-28 vs LOU41% → 96%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +39, Possession & field position +1
• WAKEL 14-38 vs WAKE46% → 0%Before kickoff −4 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −49, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from NC State's side.

Closest call

NCSU 30-29 PITT (2020) - NC State dropped to a 4.9% win probability before pulling it out.