NC State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2166th
  Defense+0.0389th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense41.3%36th
  Defense33.9%98th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3887th
  Defense+1.3618th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0626th
  Defense+0.0281st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3375th
  Defense+0.1184th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.6%43rd
  Defense38.9%98th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense28.8%26th
  Defense26.0%89th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3078th
  Defense2.7880th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense11.9%93rd
  Defense23.0%95th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.4%74th
  Defense18.9%83rd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what NC State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   USF
2. L
   MSST
3. W
   FUR
4. W
   CLEM
5. W
   LT
6. W
   BC
7. L
   MIA
8. W
   LOU
9. W
   FSU
10. L
    WAKE
11. W
    SYR
12. W
    UNC

Bars above the line: better than expected for NC State.

Players, 2021

1. Devin LearyQB411 plays · +0.229 pts/play · 47th of 219 QBs
   1.76WAR0.85 to 2.67
2. Zonovan KnightRB127 plays · +0.198 pts/play · 73rd of 387 RBs
   0.47WAR0.35 to 0.59
3. Ricky Person Jr.RB138 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 102nd of 387 RBs
   0.39WAR0.29 to 0.52
4. Emeka EmezieWR76 plays · +0.221 pts/play · 20th of 474 WRs
   0.31WAR0.22 to 0.41
5. Trenton GillP57 plays · +0.159 pts/play · 21st of 101 punters
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.27
6. Thayer ThomasWR55 plays · +0.164 pts/play · 102nd of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.11 to 0.23
7. Devin CarterWR54 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 104th of 474 WRs
   0.17WAR0.09 to 0.23
8. Christopher DunnPK16 plays · +0.236 pts/play · 75th of 128 kickers
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.12

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares NC State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  70070034th of 130Roster talent: 700, 34th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20920932nd of 130Recruiting: 209, 32nd of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  66%66%79th of 128Returning production: 66%, 79th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +16.1+16.114th of 130SP+ rating: +16.1, 14th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than NC State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs CLEMQ4 13:33 4th & 1 at NCSU 36, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.9 pts
2. vs CLEMQ4 6:14 4th & 6 at CLEM 34, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
3. at MIAQ3 0:55 4th & 7 at NCSU 34, down 4Went for it; the numbers favored punting−1.7 pts
4. vs CLEMQ2 4:37 4th & 1 at NCSU 20, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at MIAQ2 1:53 4th & 2 at NCSU 42, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
6. vs LOUQ2 3:52 4th & 2 at NCSU 48, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
7. at MSSTQ4 6:13 4th & 21 at MSST 21, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at FSUQ4 3:26 4th & 4 at FSU 40, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

32nd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up NC State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   USF
2. L

   MSST
3. W

   FUR
4. W

   CLEM
5. W

   LT
6. W

   BC
7. L

   MIA
8. W

   LOU
9. W

   FSU
10. L

    WAKE
11. W

    SYR
12. W

    UNC

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at NC State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.93
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock+0.21
• Timeouts−0.20
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.78

Game by game

• USFW 45-0 vs USF88% → 100%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +12: Scoreboard +14
• MSSTL 10-24 at MSST55% → 1%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −45, Possession & field position −1
• FURW 45-7 vs FUR95% → 25%Before kickoff +45 · On the field −70: Scoreboard −25, Clock −2
• CLEMW 27-21 vs CLEM26% → 88%Before kickoff −24 · On the field +62: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts −20
• LTW 34-27 vs LT90% → 89%Before kickoff +40 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +15, Possession & field position −1
• BCW 33-7 at BC56% → 100%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +47, Clock +1
• MIAL 30-31 at MIA55% → 5%Before kickoff +5 · On the field −50: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts −2
• LOUW 28-13 vs LOU66% → 99%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +34, Possession & field position +1
• FSUW 28-14 at FSU57% → 99%Before kickoff +7 · On the field +41: Scoreboard +48, Clock +3
• WAKEL 42-45 at WAKE47% → 7%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −40: Scoreboard −34, Timeouts −2
• SYRW 41-17 vs SYR78% → 100%Before kickoff +28 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +1
• UNCW 34-30 vs UNC68% → 82%Before kickoff +18 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +21, Possession & field position −3

Points of win probability, from NC State's side.

Closest call

NCSU 30-29 PITT (2020) - NC State dropped to a 4.9% win probability before pulling it out.