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NCSU

NC State 30 at Miami 31

MIA
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore differentialGarbage-time factor
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:15: Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 27 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:24: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +14.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:45: Devin Leary run for 17 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Andres Borregales KICK) — NCSU win probability +23.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:34: Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 4 yds for a TD — MIA win probability +19.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:39: Christopher Dunn 40 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:27NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:17NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:58MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:24NCSU 4th & 8 at MIA 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:26MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:06NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 19, down 4
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:41MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.4%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:57MIA 4th & 22 at MIA 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:53NCSU 4th & 8 at MIA 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:18MIA 4th & 3 at MIA 36, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:53NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 42, down 4
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−1.0
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:47MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 30, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:27NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:30MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:09NCSU 4th & 9 at MIA 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−6.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:22MIA 4th & 3 at NCSU 5, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%−1.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−15.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:55NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 34, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%−1.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:39NCSU 4th & 15 at MIA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−6.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    17.3%−13.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:46MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 6, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−14.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:49NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:50MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:41MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:59NCSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:24MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2955% → 55%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.0%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
45.1%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+6
45.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 6 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 13:27
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
45.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 55 yds , Jacolby George returns for 7 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3745% → 48%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Key'Shawn Smith) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
45.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+22
45.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for 22 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
45.9%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Ingle, Tanner) 10 yards to the NCSTATE43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
46.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+5
46.3%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
46.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
46.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 8 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+25
48.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 25 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1852% → 51%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
47.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
48.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q1 10:07
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
48.3%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+12
48.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 12 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
49.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 59 yds , Jacolby George returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1249% → 49%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
48.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
48.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+4
48.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
49.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, downed at the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:2151% → 50%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
49.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
49.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+20
50.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 20 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
49.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 27 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-4
49.4%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 14
OPP 22
0
50.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+6
50.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
49.8%
Christopher Dunn 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:4950% → 49%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
49.9%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+5
49.5%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+3
49.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 54 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 3 yds to the NCSt 29 NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (Devan Boykin) to the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0349% → 48%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
50.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+4
51.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 4 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
51.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
52.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 57 yds, downed at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 2:1451% → 58%
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
50.8%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+12
51.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
51.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+5
51.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+53
58.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 53 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3241% → 48%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.6%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+25
59.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
50
+12
57.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
58.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+6
58.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
58.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+7
58.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
59.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 0:5354% → 53%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
53.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Mike Harley for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
53.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
52.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-6
53.0%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26 MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jakai Clark) to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
53.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5247% → 44%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
53.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
53.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
53.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
55.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MiaFl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 3:2955% → 57%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
55.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 6 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+5
55.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
55.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
55.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 5
OWN 22
-5
55.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jakai Clark) to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+12
55.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 12 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
56.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
56.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 6 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
57.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:18
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
56.5%
Lou Hedley punt for 53 yds, downed at the NCSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:1442% → 40%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+23
57.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 23 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
56.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 2
OWN 42
0
55.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
55.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
60.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, downed at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5658% → 56%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
57.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 4 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+5
58.0%
Jaylan Knighton run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
58.2%
Cody Brown run for no gain to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
55.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:1539% → 61%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
61.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+46
60.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 46 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
39.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 27 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2746% → 62%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
45.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 60 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
50.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 16Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+6
50.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for 6 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
48.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+5
47.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Cory Durden) to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
61.9%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:5143% → 41%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
57.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jahfari Harvey) to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
55.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
56.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
57.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+51
59.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jacolby George at the MIAMI 14 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:4958% → 59%
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
57.9%
Cody Brown run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 12 MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (-6 Yards) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+1
57.7%
Cody Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 10
OWN 7
-3
59.9%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 13
OWN 4
0
59.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:4643% → 43%
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
57.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+3
56.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+5
57.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
57.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
55.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
56.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
57.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 7:09
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
56.6%
Christopher Dunn 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:4759% → 68%
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
58.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
59.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 15 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
61.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
63.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+29
62.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 29 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
65.3%
Van Dyke, Tyler pass incomplete to Smith, Key'Shawn, PENALTY NCSTATE roughing passer (Durden, Cory) 12 yards to the NCSTATE12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
65.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 8 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+1
65.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-2
64.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 5Similar
Q3 3:22
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
68.3%
Andres Borregales 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:2434% → 62%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
66.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
65.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
65.8%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
67.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+40
69.1%
Trent Pennix run for 40 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
61.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
61.2%
Leary, Devin pass complete to Toudle, Christopher for 12 yards to the MIAMI0, PENALTY NCSTATE illegal participation (McMahon, Dylan) 5 yards to the MIAMI17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+17
37.6%
Devin Leary run for 17 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0349% → 78%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
49.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+28
52.6%
Jaylan Knighton run for 28 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
55.0%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+13
54.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 13 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
56.9%
Cody Brown run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
57.1%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 11:11
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
54.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 5 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
57.2%
Jaylan Knighton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+6
57.3%
Jaylan Knighton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
58.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the NCSt 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:4130% → 39%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
70.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+44
68.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Anthony Smith for 44 yds to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
63.0%
Thayer Thomas run for no gain to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
63.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 16
-12
66.3%
Devin Leary sacked by Bubba Bolden for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 5:45
4TH & 20
OPP 28
+5
73.7%
Dunn, Christopher field goal attempt from 45 MISSED - wide right, spot at MIAMI28, clock 05:45, PENALTY MIAMI roughing the kicker 5 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+40
61.5%
Christopher Dunn 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:1465% → 62%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-3
64.9%
Tyler Van Dyke run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 13
OWN 8
-4
64.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jaylan Knighton for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 17
OWN 4
+2
62.5%
Jaylan Knighton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 15
OWN 6
0
61.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:4144% → 38%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
56.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Anthony SmithSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
57.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+2
59.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 8
OWN 46
+6
62.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27END OF GAME
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:4574% → 95%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.9%
Jaylan Knighton run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-6
74.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 16
OWN 42
+21
69.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Will Mallory for 21 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
82.7%
Jaylan Knighton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 34
-2
85.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 36
-2
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:45
Devin Leary run for 17 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) Trenton Gill kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback (Andres Borregales KICK)
-23.7
TD · Q4 9:34
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 4 yds for a TD
+19.4
TD · Q2 0:15
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 27 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com