NC State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2377th
  Defense+0.1832nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense49.1%89th
  Defense42.6%49th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1219th
  Defense+1.2437th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2894th
  Defense+0.1723rd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2049th
  Defense+0.2054th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.4%93rd
  Defense47.2%50th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense36.9%74th
  Defense34.1%40th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3593rd
  Defense2.8650th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense15.1%90th
  Defense19.3%44th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.3%96th
  Defense4.3%99th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what NC State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   GASO
2. W
   ODU
3. W
   USF
4. W
   PRES
5. L
   FSU
6. L
   CLEM
7. L
   BC
8. L
   LOU
9. W
   SYR
10. L
    GT
11. W
    WAKE
12. W
    UNC
13. W
    UCF

Bars above the line: better than expected for NC State.

Players, 2014

1. Jacoby BrissettQB394 plays · +0.240 pts/play · 43rd of 199 QBs
   1.77WAR1.14 to 2.35
2. Shadrach ThorntonRB143 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 51st of 350 RBs
   0.34WAR0.23 to 0.44
3. Matt DayesRB111 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 96th of 350 RBs
   0.23WAR0.15 to 0.31
4. Bo HinesWR52 plays · +0.125 pts/play · 166th of 469 WRs
   0.12WAR0.06 to 0.19
5. Niklas SadePK15 plays · +0.412 pts/play · 48th of 114 kickers
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.15
6. Bra'Lon CherryWR32 plays · +0.118 pts/play · 275th of 469 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.11
7. Johnathan AlstonCB33 plays · +0.086 pts/play
   0.05WAR0.01 to 0.09
8. Jaylen Samuels?18 plays · +0.148 pts/play
   0.05WAR0.04 to 0.06

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares NC State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than NC State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UCFQ2 3:16 4th & 2 at UCF 2, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
2. at SYRQ4 14:43 4th & 5 at SYR 43, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
3. vs FSUQ3 7:05 4th & 2 at NCSU 20, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. vs GASOQ2 5:45 4th & 3 at GASO 35, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
5. at UCFQ1 0:59 4th & 1 at NCSU 16, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. at LOUQ3 7:06 4th & 4 at LOU 31, down 11Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
7. vs BCQ3 11:53 4th & 7 at BC 40, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs GASOQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at NCSU 10, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

21st of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up NC State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   GASO
2. W

   ODU
3. W

   USF
4. W

   PRES
5. L

   FSU
6. L

   CLEM
7. L

   BC
8. L

   LOU
9. W

   SYR
10. L

    GT
11. W

    WAKE
12. W

    UNC
13. W

    UCF

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at NC State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.21
• Possession & field position−0.04
• Clock+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.10

Game by game

• GASOW 24-23 vs GASO94% → 82%Before kickoff +44 · On the field −12: Scoreboard +10, Timeouts +1
• ODUW 46-34 vs ODU88% → 96%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• USFW 49-17 at USF49% → 100%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +53, Possession & field position +1
• PRESW 42-0 vs PRES99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• FSUL 41-56 vs FSU6% → 1%Before kickoff −44 · On the field −5: Scoreboard −13, Clock −1
• CLEML 0-41 at CLEM16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −19, Clock +1
• BCL 14-30 vs BC61% → 2%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −59: Scoreboard −57, Clock −1
• LOUL 18-30 at LOU17% → 3%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −14: Scoreboard −21, Timeouts −1
• SYRW 24-17 at SYR33% → 94%Before kickoff −17 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +55, Clock +3
• GTL 23-56 vs GT42% → 0%Before kickoff −8 · On the field −42: Scoreboard −45, Clock −1
• WAKEW 42-13 vs WAKE81% → 100%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +19: Scoreboard +22
• UNCW 35-7 at UNC32% → 100%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +65, Clock +2
• UCFW 34-27 at UCF42% → 96%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3

Points of win probability, from NC State's side.

Closest call

NCSU 30-29 PITT (2020) - NC State dropped to a 4.9% win probability before pulling it out.