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BC

Boston College 30 at NC State 14

NCSU
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:53 · Wil Baumann punt for 40 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense−9.8Pregame prior+4.9Score differential−4.9Garbage-time factor−2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:43: Tyler Murphy run for 47 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +5.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:45: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 16 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:29: Sherman Alston run for 24 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +6.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:45: Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30 — BC win probability +8.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:00: Tyler Murphy run for 26 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll MISSED), (TEAM MISSED) — BC win probability +11.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q2 12:24NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 9:25NCSU 4th & 9 at BC 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−6.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:25BC 4th & 3 at NCSU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−1.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:07NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−3.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:03BC 4th & 28 at NCSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    45% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:58BC 4th & 10 at NCSU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−1.5
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    88% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−9.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:53NCSU 4th & 7 at BC 40, down 10
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    36.4%−0.9
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:14BC 4th & 5 at NCSU 26, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    63.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:45NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00BC 4th & 6 at BC 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:30NCSU 4th & 18 at NCSU 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 3:01BC 4th & 9 at NCSU 36, up 16
    Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    96.8%−<0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:55NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 25, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:10BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:53NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:43BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:45NCSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 12:29BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5039% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (N/A) to the BC 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
0
61.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
61.1%
Myles Willis run for 8 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
61.1%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 23 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
61.1%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 10 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
61.1%
Tyler Murphy run for 6 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+9
61.1%
Myles Willis run for 9 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
61.1%
Myles Willis run for 4 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
59.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:1760% → 62%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.8%
Tony Creecy run for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
59.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
59.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 13 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
60.2%
Tony Creecy run for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+4
60.3%
Tony Creecy run for 4 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
60.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 6 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+6
60.3%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
60.3%
Matt Dayes run for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+12
60.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 12 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
60.3%
Matt Dayes run for no gain to the BC 2Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.9%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1039% → 45%
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
60.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
60.2%
Tyler Murphy run for 8 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
60.1%
Sherman Alston run for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+13
60.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 13 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
59.9%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+47
55.5%
Tyler Murphy run for 47 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:4958% → 62%
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
57.8%
Bryan Underwood run for 2 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+2
57.8%
Johnathan Alston run for 2 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+22
57.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 22 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
58.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 3 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
58.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+16
62.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 16 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1640% → 49%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
59.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+14
60.2%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 14 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
59.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
58.4%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
58.3%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 9 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+12
58.1%
Tyler Murphy run for 12 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.7%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
51.2%
Sherman Alston run for 24 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
54.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
54.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
54.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bryan UnderwoodSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
53.1%
Wil Baumann punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
52.4%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Dan Crimmins for 5 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-4
52.1%
Myles Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 15 Myles Willis fumbled, forced by Thomas Teal, recovered by NCSt Mike RoseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4456% → 52%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
55.5%
Tony Creecy run for 1 yd to the BC 14Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
55.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Tony Creecy, broken up by Manuel AsprillaSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
54.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
52.4%
Niklas Sade 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
51.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+11
50.6%
Tyler Murphy run for 11 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
50.3%
Sherman Alston run for 6 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+6
49.6%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 6 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
49.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
49.3%
Tyler Rouse run for 3 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
49.6%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/A BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
50.5%
Alex Howell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
48.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matt DayesSimilar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
48.4%
Matt Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 7
OWN 12
-8
47.7%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Brian Mihalik for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 15
OWN 4
+9
47.0%
Wil Baumann punt for 46 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 9 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 6 yds · 4:2555% → 56%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
44.8%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Josh BordnerSimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
44.9%
Tyler Rouse run for 5 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
45.8%
Tyler Murphy run for 7 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
45.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+1
45.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+9
45.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Sherman Alston for 9 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
45.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
45.1%
Tyler Murphy run for no gain to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-5
40.1%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
41.0%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 13
OPP 20
-15
43.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 28
OPP 35
+52
43.8%
Mike Knoll 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+49
45.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 49 yds to the BC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
47.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+21
44.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Brian Mihalik return for 21 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:1161% → 62%
Q3 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
39.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
39.3%
Tyler Murphy run for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+7
40.8%
Myles Willis run for 7 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
37.6%
Mike Knoll 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+22
36.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 22 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matt DayesSimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
37.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+17
35.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 17 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
39.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tony Creecy for 4 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-1
39.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 40Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
39.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
36.7%
Wil Baumann punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 55 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
35.8%
Sherman Alston run for 8 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
34.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+14
35.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 14 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
34.0%
Tyler Murphy run for 2 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
34.0%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Jon Hilliman for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 3
50
+8
34.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Marcus Outlow for 8 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
33.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-3
33.7%
Tyler Murphy run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+9
34.4%
Tyler Murphy run for 9 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
33.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
33.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
34.1%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Marcus Outlow, broken up by Hakim JonesSimilar
Q3 9:14
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+1
35.8%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to David Dudeck for 1 yd to the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
28.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bryan UnderwoodSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
27.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jumichael Ramos for 7 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
28.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
28.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-3
28.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Steven Daniels for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 39 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+36
26.1%
Wil Baumann punt for 58 yds , Sherman Alston returns for 36 yds to the BC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1676% → 73%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
24.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
24.4%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
24.7%
Tyler Murphy pass incomplete to Marcus OutlowSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+48
26.7%
Alex Howell punt for 48 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:0725% → 20%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
24.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 2 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+9
24.9%
Matt Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
25.1%
Matt Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+21
25.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 21 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
23.9%
Matt Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
23.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 38 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, recovered by NCSt Jaylen Samuels , return for 6 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 18
OWN 38
0
21.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q4 12:30
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
20.1%
Wil Baumann punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sherman Alston at the BC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:4281% → 96%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
17.8%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
16.9%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
17.3%
Sherman Alston run for 12 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
16.4%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 11
50
+18
16.7%
Tyler Murphy pass complete to Josh Bordner for 3 yds to the NCSTATE 47 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Brandon Pittman) to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
16.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+7
16.1%
Myles Willis run for 7 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
16.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
15.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+26
3.7%
Tyler Murphy run for 26 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll MISSED), (TEAM MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
4.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David GrinnageSimilar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-6
3.9%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Josh Keyes for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 37 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, recovered by BC Steven Daniels , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3697% → 97%
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
3.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 4:37
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+4
3.6%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q4 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-5
3.5%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
2.6%
Alex Howell punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
2.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan Alston, broken up by John JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
2.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-18
2.6%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Connor Wujciak for a loss of 18 yards to the NCSt 7 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, recovered by NCSt N/A , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
2.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
2.2%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
2.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:00
Tyler Murphy run for 26 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll MISSED), (TEAM MISSED)
-11.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 2:45
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30
-8.3
TD · Q2 12:29
Sherman Alston run for 24 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
-6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com