NC State

Profile vs. FBS, 2019

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0522nd
  Defense+0.1824th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.5%49th
  Defense43.4%45th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.076th
  Defense+1.2343rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0229th
  Defense+0.1519th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.0923rd
  Defense+0.2234th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense48.1%52nd
  Defense47.3%51st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.3%49th
  Defense36.6%17th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.8443rd
  Defense3.0333rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense22.7%18th
  Defense18.5%37th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense25.1%5th
  Defense21.3%65th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2019

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what NC State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   ECU
2. W
   WCU
3. L
   WVU
4. W
   BALL
5. L
   FSU
6. W
   SYR
7. L
   BC
8. L
   WAKE
9. L
   CLEM
10. L
    LOU
11. L
    GT
12. L
    UNC

Bars above the line: better than expected for NC State.

Players, 2019

1. Devin LearyQB152 plays · +0.169 pts/play · 131st of 228 QBs
   0.48WAR0.25 to 0.69
2. Matthew McKayQB125 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 148th of 228 QBs
   0.37WAR0.17 to 0.60
3. Zonovan KnightRB106 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 141st of 349 RBs
   0.31WAR0.22 to 0.39
4. Jordan HoustonRB76 plays · +0.147 pts/play · 189th of 349 RBs
   0.21WAR0.16 to 0.26
5. Christopher DunnPK19 plays · +0.530 pts/play · 15th of 114 kickers
   0.19WAR0.15 to 0.23
6. Bailey HockmanQB73 plays · +0.127 pts/play · 190th of 228 QBs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.28
7. Ricky Person Jr.RB53 plays · +0.145 pts/play · 236th of 349 RBs
   0.14WAR0.10 to 0.18
8. Emeka EmezieWR72 plays · +0.090 pts/play · 164th of 439 WRs
   0.12WAR0.04 to 0.21

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares NC State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2019

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  66966936th of 130Roster talent: 669, 36th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  19919937th of 130Recruiting: 199, 37th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  13%13%127th of 130Returning production: 13%, 127th of 130 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −6.3−6.394th of 130SP+ rating: −6.3, 94th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2019

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than NC State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut one accounts for 0.01 of the 0.08 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at BCQ2 7:23 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.1 pts
2. at GTQ2 2:02 4th & 3 at GT 3, down 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)1.0 pts
3. at FSUQ3 13:06 4th & 1 at NCSU 11, down 11Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)1.0 pts
4. at WVUQ3 8:33 4th & 3 at NCSU 28, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.7 pts
5. at FSUQ4 7:21 4th & 21 at NCSU 47, down 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)0.6 pts
6. vs LOUQ4 9:42 4th & 10 at LOU 47, down 17Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)0.5 pts
7. vs ECUQ2 7:46 4th & 2 at ECU 47, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.5 pts
8. vs SYRQ4 1:48 4th & 4 at NCSU 41, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.4 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2019

121st of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up NC State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   ECU
2. W

   WCU
3. L

   WVU
4. W

   BALL
5. L

   FSU
6. W

   SYR
7. L

   BC
8. L

   WAKE
9. L

   CLEM
10. L

    LOU
11. L

    GT
12. L

    UNC

What moved it, 2019

Every game starts at NC State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−2.07
• Possession & field position+0.03
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.23

Game by game

• ECUW 34-6 vs ECU85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +18
• WCUW 41-0 vs WCU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• WVUL 27-44 at WVU70% → 1%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −51, Timeouts −2
• BALLW 34-23 vs BALL89% → 98%Before kickoff +39 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +16, Timeouts +1
• FSUL 13-31 at FSU28% → 1%Before kickoff −22 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −29, Timeouts −1
• SYRW 16-10 vs SYR61% → 91%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +31: Scoreboard +26, Possession & field position +2
• BCL 24-45 at BC57% → 1%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −50, Possession & field position +1
• WAKEL 10-44 at WAKE26% → 0%Before kickoff −24 · On the field −26: Scoreboard −28
• CLEML 10-55 vs CLEM1% → 0%Before kickoff −49 · On the field −1: Scoreboard −3
• LOUL 20-34 vs LOU35% → 2%Before kickoff −15 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −42, Clock −2
• GTL 26-28 at GT57% → 6%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts +1
• UNCL 10-41 vs UNC21% → 0%Before kickoff −29 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −27

Points of win probability, from NC State's side.

Closest call

NCSU 30-29 PITT (2020) - NC State dropped to a 4.9% win probability before pulling it out.