NC State

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1148th
  Defense+0.0957th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.5%48th
  Defense40.7%67th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2963rd
  Defense+1.3030th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0237th
  Defense+0.0457th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2159th
  Defense+0.1657th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense45.6%33rd
  Defense45.1%67th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense35.6%73rd
  Defense32.0%56th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.6119th
  Defense2.7171st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.6%35th
  Defense24.9%87th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.2%37th
  Defense18.2%73rd

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what NC State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WAKE
2. L
   VT
3. W
   PITT
4. W
   UVA
5. W
   DUKE
6. L
   UNC
7. L
   MIA
8. W
   FSU
9. W
   LIB
10. W
    SYR
11. W
    GT
12. L
    UK

Bars above the line: better than expected for NC State.

Players, 2020

1. Zonovan KnightRB150 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 24th of 338 RBs
   0.52WAR0.39 to 0.65
2. Ricky Person Jr.RB158 plays · +0.143 pts/play · 44th of 338 RBs
   0.42WAR0.26 to 0.55
3. Devin LearyQB109 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 101st of 212 QBs
   0.33WAR0.14 to 0.50
4. Bailey HockmanQB290 plays · +0.058 pts/play · 105th of 212 QBs
   0.31WAR−0.19 to 0.86
5. Emeka EmezieWR65 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 22nd of 409 WRs
   0.19WAR0.12 to 0.28
6. Jordan HoustonRB51 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 233rd of 338 RBs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.16
7. Thayer ThomasWR54 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 99th of 409 WRs
   0.11WAR0.05 to 0.18
8. Devin CarterWR35 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 114th of 409 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares NC State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  68068031st of 127Roster talent: 680, 31st of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20320336th of 127Recruiting: 203, 36th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  60%60%74th of 127Returning production: 60%, 74th of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  0.00.070th of 127SP+ rating: 0.0, 70th of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than NC State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.05 of the 0.12 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UKQ4 12:15 4th & 2 at NCSU 13, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
2. at UVAQ4 11:19 4th & 3 at UVA 19, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
3. vs DUKEQ3 8:36 4th & 2 at NCSU 39, down 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. at UVAQ3 6:59 4th & 5 at UVA 40, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.1 pts
5. vs GTQ2 3:53 4th & 3 at GT 3, up 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
6. vs WAKEQ2 10:38 4th & 4 at WAKE 43, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
7. vs WAKEQ3 6:47 4th & 3 at NCSU 38, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
8. vs DUKEQ2 1:43 4th & 5 at DUKE 43, down 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

5th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up NC State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WAKE
2. L

   VT
3. W

   PITT
4. W

   UVA
5. W

   DUKE
6. L

   UNC
7. L

   MIA
8. W

   FSU
9. W

   LIB
10. W

    SYR
11. W

    GT
12. L

    UK

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at NC State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.33
• Possession & field position−0.01
• Clock+0.04
• Timeouts+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.28

Game by game

• WAKEW 45-42 vs WAKE49% → 93%Before kickoff −1 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +2
• VTL 24-45 at VT36% → 0%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −37, Timeouts +1
• PITTW 30-29 at PITT16% → 69%Before kickoff −34 · On the field +52: Scoreboard +24, Clock +4
• UVAW 38-21 at UVA35% → 99%Before kickoff −15 · On the field +64: Scoreboard +60, Clock +2
• DUKEW 31-20 vs DUKE63% → 98%Before kickoff +13 · On the field +35: Scoreboard +34, Timeouts +2
• UNCL 21-48 at UNC12% → 0%Before kickoff −38 · On the field −12: Scoreboard −16
• MIAL 41-44 vs MIA23% → 6%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −17: Scoreboard −33, Clock −2
• FSUW 38-22 vs FSU77% → 99%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +26, Timeouts +1
• LIBW 15-14 vs LIB65% → 75%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +10: Scoreboard +16, Possession & field position −2
• SYRW 36-29 at SYR88% → 95%Before kickoff +38 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +25, Clock +2
• GTW 23-13 vs GT64% → 96%Before kickoff +14 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts +2
• UKL 21-23 at UK41% → 5%Before kickoff −9 · On the field −36: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −2

Points of win probability, from NC State's side.

Closest call

NCSU 30-29 PITT (2020) - NC State dropped to a 4.9% win probability before pulling it out.