Try the model
NCSU

NC State 38 at Virginia 21

UVA
2020 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2020 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 2 yds to the Virg 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Pregame prior+14.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:32: Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 32 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:03: Zonovan Knight run for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +8.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:15: Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +7.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:08: Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +10.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:10: Lindell Stone pass intercepted for a TD Alim McNeill return for 18 yds for a TD NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jakeen Harris) to the Virg 18 (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +14.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 11NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:01UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:02NCSU 4th & 9 at UVA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:20UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 23, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 29, up 14
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49NCSU 4th & 8 at UVA 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    48.5%−7.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:49UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:32UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 30, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:04NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−1.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:59NCSU 4th & 5 at UVA 40, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    77.6%−1.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:28UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 45, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:08NCSU 4th & 5 at UVA 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    68.1%−3.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:19NCSU 4th & 3 at UVA 19, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%−1.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−12.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:10UVA 4th & 1 at NCSU 45, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−1.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:10UVA 4th & 4 at NCSU 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:06NCSU 4th & 7 at UVA 43, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:59UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 23, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:01NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:32NCSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:03NCSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:15UVA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:08UVA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:10NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:49UVA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.9%
Devin Leary run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
64.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete, broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
64.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 2 yds to the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5465% → 65%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
64.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 4 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
64.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete, broken up by Malik DunlapSimilar
Q1 13:01
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
64.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:5035% → 36%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
64.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
64.5%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+18
64.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 18 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
64.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 12 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
64.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
64.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
64.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q1 10:02
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+51
64.2%
Christopher Dunn 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
64.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for 8 yds to the Virg 42 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 17
OWN 27
+3
64.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 3 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 14
OWN 30
+3
64.4%
Shane Simpson run for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
64.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted Shyheim Battle return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:3837% → 41%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
50
+4
63.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
63.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 6 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
63.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+31
63.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 25 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, roughing passer (6 Yards) to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
63.2%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:4160% → 57%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
59.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
59.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 25 VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
59.1%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Malik Dunlap for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
57.2%
Nash Griffin punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:4043% → 49%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
57.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+6
57.6%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
57.3%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 14
OWN 48
0
58.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Richard BurneySimilar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+17
58.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 17 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
57.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+32
51.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 32 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8DOWNS
15 plays · 74 yds · 1:3253% → 52%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.6%
Billy Kemp IV run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+26
52.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Terrell Jana for 26 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
53.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 14 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
52.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-2
52.9%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Terrell Dawkins for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+8
52.4%
Shane Simpson run for 8 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+5
52.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Payton Wilson) to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
52.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 14
+9
52.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Tony Poljan for 9 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
52.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
52.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.5%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
52.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
46.0%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the NCSt 2Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+1
46.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+20
46.5%
Devin Leary run for 20 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
45.8%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+7
45.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
45.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Noah TaylorSimilar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
46.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 31 yds, downed at the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10INT
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
44.4%
Brennan Armstrong sacked by Shyheim Battle for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 20
OWN 30
-21
43.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass intercepted C.J. Riley return for 21 yds to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3060% → 66%
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
39.7%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 12
OPP 22
0
40.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by D'Angelo AmosSimilar
Q2 7:19
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+4
40.2%
Devin Leary run for 4 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
34.3%
Christopher Dunn 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
37.2%
Brennan Armstrong rush for 3 yards to the VA20 (Isaiah Moore), PENALTY VA holding off-setting, PENALTY ST personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
37.9%
Shane Simpson run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
37.8%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-5
37.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 5:49
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+4
37.5%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+17
37.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 58 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 37 , Thayer Thomas returns for 17 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:1369% → 79%
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
30.7%
Ricky Person rush for 2 yards to the ST39, out-of-bounds (D'Angelo Amos), PENALTY ST holding (Dylan McMahon) 10 yards to the ST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+8
31.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+20
31.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 20 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
29.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 10 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
29.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. Riley, broken up by Noah TaylorSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
20.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 1:4825% → 36%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
25.6%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 8 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
26.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
50
0
26.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Shane Simpson, broken up by Payton WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
50
0
26.7%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 10
50
+16
26.0%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 16 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
27.6%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Cecil PowellSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+32
24.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 32 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.0%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
30.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Shane Simpson for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
30.6%
Shane Simpson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
30.0%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
30.0%
TEAM punt blocked by Vi Jones blocked by Vi JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
25.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+2
26.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
26.6%
Devin Leary pass intercepted, touchback. De'Vante Cross return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
27.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
27.0%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
27.4%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Malik DunlapSimilar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
27.0%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
26.8%
Terrell Jana pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+49
26.8%
Nash Griffin punt for 39 yds NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NCSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
23.9%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Thomas Ruocchio) to the NCSt 16Similar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+15
24.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 15 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
23.8%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
23.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
24.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Cary Angeline, broken up by Antonio ClarySimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
24.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0023% → 26%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
23.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for no gain to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+11
23.2%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
23.9%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
23.5%
Shane Simpson run for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
24.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.3%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
25.0%
Shane Simpson run for 12 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
25.9%
Shane Simpson run for 10 yds to the NCSt 32 Shane Simpson fumbled, forced by Terrell Dawkins, recovered by NCSt Isaiah MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
19.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, PENALTY ST holding (Ikem Ekwonu) 10 yards to the ST22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 20
OWN 22
0
19.9%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 22Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+33
20.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 33 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
18.3%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
17.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
18.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
19.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, downed at the Virg 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 3:2019% → 34%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+15
19.2%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr., PENALTY ST pass interference (Joshua Pierre-Louis) 15 yards to the VA18, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
19.7%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
20.0%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+11
19.7%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 11 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
21.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
21.7%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Lavel Davis Jr.Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
21.3%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+26
21.0%
Nash Griffin pass complete to Nick Jackson for 26 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
23.3%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+20
23.3%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 20 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
33.5%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
28.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+6
26.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
26.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
26.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
26.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
28.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1226% → 24%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
26.3%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 4 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-3
26.6%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
24.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
23.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25MISSED FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:0075% → 78%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
24.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+12
24.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 12 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
23.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 3
OPP 19
-10
23.9%
Devin Leary rush for 7 yards to the VA12 (Matt Gahm), PENALTY ST holding (Grant Gibson) 10 yards to the VA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 13
OPP 29
+10
24.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 10 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
25.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
22.5%
Christopher Dunn 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-18
8.2%
Lindell Stone pass intercepted for a TD Alim McNeill return for 18 yds for a TD NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jakeen Harris) to the Virg 18 (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
2.0%
NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jakeen Harris) to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28TD
19 plays · 89 yds · 5:023% → 2%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
2.8%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 14 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
2.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
3.1%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 12 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
3.1%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 6
50
0
3.2%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 6
50
+5
3.1%
Lindell Stone run for 5 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+3
3.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
3.3%
Lindell Stone run for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
3.4%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
3.4%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q4 11:10
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+10
3.3%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 10 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
3.6%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
3.5%
Lindell Stone run for 2 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+9
3.4%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 9 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
3.7%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Terrell Jana for 10 yds to the NCSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
1.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Billy Kemp IVSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
1.7%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Lavel Davis Jr. for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
0.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+1
0.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 41
-2
0.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
0.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
0.8%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 3 yds to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
0.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Jakeen HarrisSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+10
0.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Tony Poljan (Cecil Powell), PENALTY ST pass interference (Cecil Powell) 10 yards to the VA23, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
0.9%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q4 4:59
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
0.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Vi JonesSimilar
Q4 4:59
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
0.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Wayne TaulapapaSimilar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
0.8%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Devan BoykinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 31TD
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:13100% → 99%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
0.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+11
0.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
0.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (Noah Taylor) to the Virg 5Similar
Q4 3:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the Virg 2Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 32END OF GAME
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
0.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Hayden Mitchell for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.9%
Lindell Stone pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun Henry (Malik Dunlap), PENALTY ST offside (Nick Booker-Brown) 5 yards to the VA39, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
1.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:10
Lindell Stone pass intercepted for a TD Alim McNeill return for 18 yds for a TD NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jakeen Harris) to the Virg 18 (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-14.4
TD · Q3 2:08
Lindell Stone pass complete to Tony Poljan for 1 yd for a TD (Brian Delaney KICK)
+10.3
TD · Q2 2:03
Zonovan Knight run for 35 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com