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LIB

Liberty 14 at NC State 15

NCSU
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:03 · Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+15.5+7.80−7.8−15.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+2.7Home team on offense−6.9Garbage-time factor−5.1Score differential−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:19: Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +15.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:11: Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK) — LIB win probability +17.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:46: Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the Liber 24 — NCSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 6:53: Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NCSU win probability +23.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:18: Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24 — NCSU win probability +14.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:59NCSU 4th & 9 at LIB 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:59LIB 4th & 22 at LIB 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:19NCSU 4th & 7 at LIB 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    61.8%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00LIB 4th & 1 at NCSU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:09NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:50LIB 4th & 15 at LIB 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:53LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:36NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−4.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:11NCSU 4th & 18 at LIB 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:30NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 36, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−3.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 32, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.9 ptsPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%−2.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 23, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−4.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:24LIB 4th & 18 at LIB 39, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−6.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:03NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:00NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 45, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−2.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:18LIB 4th & 5 at NCSU 21, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−20.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−31.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:56NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:19LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:11LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:53NCSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1MISSED FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 4:0165% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
65.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 14 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
65.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+3
65.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
65.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
65.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+20
65.2%
Bailey Hockman run for 20 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
65.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Liber 25Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 25
+5
65.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
65.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+1
65.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
65.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
65.1%
Christopher Dunn 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
64.8%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
64.6%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Liber 27Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+3
64.8%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 3 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-5
64.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 28Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 12
OWN 28
-10
64.8%
Willis, M. rush for 5 yards to the LU33 (Moore, I.), PENALTY LU holding (Schultz, T.) 10 yards to the LU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 22
OWN 18
0
64.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Joshua MackSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 22
OWN 18
0
65.0%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:59
4TH & 22
OWN 18
0
65.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 54 yds, downed at the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
64.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+18
64.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
50
+10
65.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 10 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
65.2%
Hockman, B. rush for 10 yards to the LU30 (Haskins, M.), PENALTY ST holding (Sculthorpe, J.) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 20
50
0
64.8%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:19
2ND & 20
50
+16
64.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 16 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-3
65.1%
Bailey Hockman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 7:19
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
64.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4DOWNS
16 plays · 69 yds · 4:4136% → 38%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
64.0%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
64.0%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ YarbroughSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
64.4%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+15
64.7%
Alves, A. punt 46 yards to the ST33, fair catch by Thomas, T., PENALTY ST personal foul (Fisher, M.) 15 yards to the LU36, 1ST DOWN LU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
63.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
63.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Peytton PickettSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+21
64.1%
Malik Willis run for 21 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
61.7%
Malik Willis run for 1 yd to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+14
61.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Yarbrough for 14 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
61.2%
Willis, M. pass incomplete to Yarbrough, Cj, PENALTY ST pass interference (Dunlap, M.) 7 yards to the ST20, 1ST DOWN LU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
61.2%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-5
61.4%
LIBERTY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 2:37
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+8
61.8%
Joshua Mack run for 8 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+7
61.1%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
61.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Shedro LouisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
63.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 12 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
63.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 13 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
64.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
64.8%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Zonovan KnightSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-6
64.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
62.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 43 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
62.1%
Malik Willis sacked by Daniel Joseph and Isaiah Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 13Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 19
OWN 13
-5
62.3%
Malik Willis sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 5 yards to the Liber 8Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 24
OWN 8
+9
63.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 9 yds to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 11:50
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
63.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:4265% → 73%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
64.6%
Bailey Hockman run for 6 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-5
65.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
64.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+8
64.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
65.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 21 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
65.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 5 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
73.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 19 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.2%
Peytton Pickett run for a loss of 3 yards to the Liber 22Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-20
70.7%
Malik Willis pass intercepted Jakeen Harris return for 5 yds to the NCSt 27 NC STATE Penalty, targeting (Tanner Ingle) to the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
72.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 12 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
73.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+12
73.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 12 yds to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
73.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 10 yds to the Liber 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
73.3%
Bailey Hockman run for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 33 Bailey Hockman fumbled, recovered by NCSt Bailey HockmanSimilar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 23
OPP 33
+3
72.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 20
OWN 0
-14
69.9%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Cedric Stone return for 14 yds to the Liber 16 LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Liber 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 2:1329% → 47%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
71.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 9 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+12
70.0%
Joshua Mack run for 12 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ Yarbrough, broken up by Jakeen HarrisSimilar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
70.3%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+5
69.9%
Willis, M. pass incomplete to Frith, N., PENALTY ST offside (Clark, C.J) 5 yards to the LU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
68.9%
Willis, M. pass incomplete to Daniels, Cj, QB hurry by Moore, I., PENALTY ST pass interference (Powell, C.) 7 yards to the ST47, 1ST DOWN LU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
68.3%
Malik Willis run for 15 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
67.0%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
67.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario Douglas, broken up by Isaac DuffySimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+11
68.4%
Malik Willis run for 11 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
67.0%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
52.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 12 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
62.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0042% → 41%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
58.5%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
58.2%
Malik Willis run for 4 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
58.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah Frith for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cecil Powell) to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
55.9%
Malik Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
57.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs, broken up by Tyler Baker-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+6
58.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 6 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
58.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
61.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q3 11:36
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-13
59.6%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Aakil Washington for a loss of 13 yards to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 11:36
4TH & 21
OWN 9
+12
58.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 56 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 12 yds to the Liber 21 LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:2445% → 65%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
54.7%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 6
OPP 49
0
54.3%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+28
54.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 28 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
52.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 17 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
52.8%
Shedro Louis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 6Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
35.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
42.1%
NC STATE Penalty, UN (Porter Rooks) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+55
41.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 55 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
47.9%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (C.J. Riley) to the Liber 36Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 15
OPP 36
-10
44.4%
Knight, Z. rush for loss of 1 yard to the LU37 (Treadwell, J.), PENALTY ST holding (Speas, B.) 10 yards to the LU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 25
OPP 46
-7
44.2%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Durrell Johnson for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 32
OWN 47
-5
43.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Devin Carter) to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 37
OWN 42
+5
42.5%
LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive offside (Durrell Johnson) to the NCSt 47Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 32
OWN 47
+3
43.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 29
50
+11
41.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 11 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
40.4%
Bailey Hockman punt for 37 yds, downed at the Liber 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16SF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-3
41.8%
Peytton Pickett run for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0045% → 41%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
44.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
43.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr., broken up by Aakil WashingtonSimilar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+5
41.5%
Bailey Hockman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
41.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds, downed at the Liber 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0760% → 62%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
40.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 9 yds to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
38.5%
Malik Willis run for no gain to the Liber 32Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
39.3%
Joshua Mack run for no gain to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
38.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
40.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-8
40.3%
Bailey Hockman sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 15 Bailey Hockman fumbled, recovered by NCSt Bailey Hockman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+8
38.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 8 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 10
OWN 23
0
37.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds, downed at the Liber 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
34.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Shedro LouisSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
35.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 14 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
32.5%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 48Similar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
32.6%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-9
34.0%
Malik Willis sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+6
38.1%
Aidan Alves punt for 37 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 6 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.0%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Marcus HaskinsSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+15
38.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 15 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
42.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Porter Rooks, broken up by Javon ScruggsSimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
40.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
38.9%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Grant Gibson) to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+6
37.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Anthony Smith for 6 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
37.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
30.5%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Noah FrithSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
30.9%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
32.4%
Malik Willis pass intercepted Aydan White return for no gain to the Liber 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5346% → 69%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
46.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+3
46.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+10
43.4%
Bailey Hockman run for 10 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
46.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the Liber 4Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 3
OPP 4
0
46.0%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q4 6:53
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
69.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
60.3%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 19
0
60.7%
Malik Willis pass intercepted Isaac Duffy return for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0068% → 63%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
68.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+4
68.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 2
50
-5
68.4%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Bryson Speas) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
66.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Cedric StoneSimilar
Q4 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
63.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Demario Douglas at the Liber 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26MISSED FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 2:5438% → 43%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
62.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to CJ DanielsSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+15
62.8%
Malik Willis pass complete to Johnny Huntley for 15 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
61.2%
Malik Willis run for 6 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
59.3%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kimani Donaldson, broken up by Tyler Baker-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+12
61.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 12 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
57.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 6 yds to the Liber 47Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
56.0%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+27
54.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 27 yds to the NCSTATE 26 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
50.2%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
50.2%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+1
55.4%
Shedro Louis run for 1 yd to the NCSt 21Similar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+39
57.3%
Alex Barbir 39 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Vi Jones Team return for 1 ydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:3972% → 75%
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
71.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+8
74.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
74.7%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 14
OWN 28
-5
75.2%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+24.8
TD · Q4 6:53
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+23
TD · Q3 7:11
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 6 yds for a TD (Alex Barbir KICK)
-17.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com