Try the model
WAKE

Wake Forest 42 at NC State 45

NCSU
2020 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2020 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:32 · Trenton Gill punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.5+11.80−11.8−23.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 183Home team on offense+14.5Garbage-time factor+9.8Score differential+1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Blowout margin−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +13.9 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:42: Ricky Person Jr. pass complete to Devin Carter for 2 yds for a TD WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:24: Kenneth Walker III run for 13 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +22.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:12: Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +31.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:51: Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +33.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:04WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:36WAKE 4th & 10 at NCSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    37.7%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:38NCSU 4th & 4 at WAKE 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00WAKE 4th & 10 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:42WAKE 4th & 18 at WAKE 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−4.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:56WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:47NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:56WAKE 4th & 5 at NCSU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:24NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:19NCSU 4th & 5 at WAKE 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−15.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:22WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.1%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:32NCSU 4th & 14 at WAKE 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    79.3%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:14WAKE 4th & 21 at WAKE 23, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:04NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:43NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:17WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:36NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:38WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:36WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:42NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:56NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:53WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:24WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:12WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:51NCSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5649% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
49.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 17 Ricky Person Jr. fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+33
49.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+17
49.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 17 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
49.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+30
50.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 30 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
50.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 15 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
50.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 13
OWN 37
-1
50.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
50.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete, broken up by Shyheim BattleSimilar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
50.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 4:0451% → 57%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
51.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
51.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+8
50.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 8 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
51.0%
Bailey Hockman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+7
51.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
51.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
51.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Dylan Parham for 32 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
51.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 21 yds to the WFrst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.4%
Bailey Hockman run for 7 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2644% → 46%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
56.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 10 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
56.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
55.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
55.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
55.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 9 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+7
55.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
55.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon Greene, broken up by Shyheim BattleSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
55.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+13
55.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 13 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
55.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 4 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+7
55.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
55.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
53.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4156% → 67%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.9%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
55.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 15 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
56.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-3
56.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+14
55.6%
Bailey Hockman run for 14 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
56.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
56.9%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
57.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 15 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
58.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 30 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
58.8%
Bailey Hockman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5836% → 44%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
63.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 10 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
63.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+5
63.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 5 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+21
63.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 6 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, roughing passer (Payton Wilson) to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
62.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-3
61.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 8
OPP 36
-5
62.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+3
63.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 3 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 10
OPP 38
+27
63.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 27 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
55.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 32 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
59.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
59.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
60.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+5
60.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive offside (Tyler Williams) to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+1
61.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Dylan Parham for 1 yd to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
60.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 7 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
61.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 6 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
60.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 4
OPP 43
+19
59.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 24 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 19 NC STATE Penalty, ball on WF20, PENALTY illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5838% → 55%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
61.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 14 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
60.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
60.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
50
+1
59.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
59.6%
Sam Hartman sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 14
OPP 0
0
60.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, offside off-setting ( Yards) to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 14
OWN 46
-5
62.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 41Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+23
62.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 23 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
59.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
57.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 12 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
57.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
57.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+6
59.2%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9END OF HALF
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:1654% → 54%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
54.0%
Jordan Houston run for 21 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
56.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
55.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-10
53.9%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+18
50.9%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Payton Wilson) to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
48.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
47.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor Morin, broken up by Tyler Baker-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
0
47.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
50.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
50
0
49.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry, broken up by Malik DunlapSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
50
0
51.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 5 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:1557% → 71%
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
57.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 30 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
58.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 13:57
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+21
58.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 21 yds to the WFrst 1 Ricky Person Jr. fumbled, forced by Nasir Greer, recovered by NCSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
58.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 2Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
71.0%
Ricky Person Jr. pass complete to Devin Carter for 2 yds for a TD WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-8
66.9%
Sam Hartman sacked by Savion Jackson for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
68.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donavon Greene, broken up by Malik DunlapSimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
69.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:3471% → 84%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
50
+13
71.2%
Bailey Hockman run for 13 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
71.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 20 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
71.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
83.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 15 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
81.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
81.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 14 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
80.5%
Sam Hartman sacked by Payton Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
81.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
82.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 32 yds, downed at the NCSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15INT TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3285% → 74%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
84.9%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-45
73.6%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted for a TD Ja'Sir Taylor return for 45 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
73.8%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+3
74.0%
Jordan Houston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+1
74.0%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+12
72.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 12 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3230% → 55%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+31
69.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 31 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
66.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-1
64.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+1
67.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+9
69.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 9 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
64.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
64.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+10
67.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 10 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
44.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 13 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
55.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
55.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+2
53.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 1:24
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+26
53.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 50 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 26 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
48.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 35 Christian Beal-Smith fumbled, forced by Alim McNeill, recovered by NCSt Alim McNeillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20FG
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:5362% → 69%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
61.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 17 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
61.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-2
61.9%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+1
60.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the WFrst 13Similar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
68.6%
Christopher Dunn 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:0736% → 74%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
63.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 7 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+14
60.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
59.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+13
59.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 13 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
57.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
57.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cecil Powell) to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
57.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
57.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 5 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+3
59.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
57.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jakeen Harris) to the NCSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2138% → 77%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
37.5%
Bailey Hockman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+21
38.3%
Jordan Houston run for 21 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
42.9%
Emeka Emezie run for 5 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
43.4%
Jordan Houston run for 6 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
43.3%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+27
42.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 27 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
43.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 9 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
77.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23DOWNS
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:2934% → 34%
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
65.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 8 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
63.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q4 5:51
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
62.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+2
64.1%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
65.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry, broken up by Jakeen HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:4681% → 84%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
81.1%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 11
OPP 40
-1
80.7%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 12
OPP 41
-2
78.1%
Bailey Hockman run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
83.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:1128% → 17%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
72.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 8 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+4
70.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
72.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
72.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Nolan Groulx for 11 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
70.2%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-6
68.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 29 Sam Hartman fumbled, recovered by WFrst , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 15
OWN 29
-6
74.5%
Sam Hartman sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 21
OWN 23
0
83.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor Morin, broken up by Rakeim AshfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:1492% → 93%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
92.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 17
OPP 30
-3
93.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 20
OPP 33
-5
92.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:51
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+33.6
TD · Q4 9:12
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-31.3
TD · Q3 1:24
Kenneth Walker III run for 13 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)
-22.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com