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NCSU

NC State 21 at North Carolina 48

UNC
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:25 · Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 8 yds to the NCaro 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+36.8Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:59: Sam Howell run for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +3.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:54: Ben Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 42 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Grayson Atkins 40 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +2.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:56: Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 17 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:11: Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 13:25NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:08UNC 4th & 24 at NCSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:37NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 16, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:15UNC 4th & 5 at NCSU 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:58UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:04NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 44, down 17
    Close callPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 11:19NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 44, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:40UNC 4th & 7 at NCSU 16, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:37NCSU 4th & 10 at UNC 45, down 34
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:05UNC 4th & 4 at NCSU 44, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:59UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:59UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:54NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:56UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:11UNC Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:27UNC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:35NCSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:11UNC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:23NCSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2913% → 13%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
87.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+8
87.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 8 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1487% → 87%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+14
87.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 14 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
87.0%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+7
86.8%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 6
50
+11
86.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 11 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
86.6%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+16
86.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 16 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
86.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 5 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+1
86.4%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 8:59
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
87.1%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 13 (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1913% → 13%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
86.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
86.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
86.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
86.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
86.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
14 plays · 41 yds · 6:1587% → 85%
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
86.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
86.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-4
86.6%
Sam Howell sacked by C.J. Hart Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 30 Sam Howell fumbled, forced by C.J. Hart Jr., recovered by NCaro Sam Howell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 14
OWN 30
+16
86.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 16 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
86.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 9 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 5:03
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
86.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
86.8%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+9
86.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 9 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
86.8%
Carter, Michael rush for 13 yards to the NCSTATE12, PENALTY UNC holding (Richards, Asim) 10 yards to the NCSTATE35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+5
86.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 15
OPP 30
-2
86.3%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 17
OPP 32
-7
85.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Terrell Dawkins for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 1:08
4TH & 24
OPP 39
0
85.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 33 yds, downed at the NCSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2314% → 14%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
85.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+4
85.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+1
85.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 16Similar
Q2 14:37
4TH & 1
OWN 16
0
85.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:3286% → 90%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
85.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
86.1%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
86.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
85.9%
Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
86.1%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+14
86.1%
Javonte Williams run for 14 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
89.5%
Sam Howell run for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 2:2312% → 13%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.1%
Ben Finley pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 15 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
87.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
87.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+24
87.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 24 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
87.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 15
0
87.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+6
87.6%
Ben Finley run for 6 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
87.2%
Finley, Ben pass incomplete to Angeline, Cary, PENALTY NCSTATE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UNC14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
0
87.4%
Ben Finley pass intercepted, touchback. Don Chapman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8MISSED FG
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5489% → 90%
Q2 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
89.2%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+16
89.3%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
89.2%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+13
89.4%
Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
89.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 8 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+12
89.5%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
89.6%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
89.6%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 4:57
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
89.3%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
89.7%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.8%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCSt 5Similar
Q2 3:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
90.1%
Grayson Atkins 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:1111% → 17%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
89.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
89.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 8 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
89.5%
Ben Finley pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+8
89.6%
Ben Finley pass complete to Cary Angeline for 8 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.3%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
89.4%
Ben Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 10 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
88.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
88.8%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+42
82.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 42 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10END OF HALF
11 plays · 52 yds · 0:4985% → 88%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
84.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 26 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
86.0%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
86.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+3
85.7%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
85.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 14 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
85.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+40
87.9%
Grayson Atkins 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5787% → 86%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.5%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.8%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
86.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-9
86.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+11
85.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 53 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 11 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:1514% → 15%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
86.2%
Ben Finley pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
85.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Porter Rooks for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+5
86.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (DeAndre Hollins) to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
85.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
84.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
84.8%
Ben Finley pass complete to Jordan Houston for 1 yd to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
84.8%
Ben Finley pass intercepted Chazz Surratt return for no gain to the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:1088% → 95%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
87.7%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
88.0%
Javonte Williams run for 15 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khafre Brown) to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+32
87.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 32 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
94.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 17 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:467% → 6%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.0%
Ben Finley pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
92.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chazz Surratt) to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.9%
Ben Finley pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 7 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
93.4%
Ben Finley pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
93.6%
Ben Finley punt for 55 yds, downed at the NCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
13 plays · 99 yds · 3:4695% → 99%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+24
94.6%
Javonte Williams run for 24 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.8%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
94.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.1%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
95.1%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+11
95.2%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Simmons, Emery, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Battle, Shyheim) 11 yards to the NCSTATE42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
95.5%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
95.5%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+21
95.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 21 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.7%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · -15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.1%
Ben Finley sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 15 yards to the NCSt 9 Ben Finley fumbled, forced by Chazz Surratt, recovered by NCaro Desmond Evans , return for 0 yards , return for 1 yd to the NCSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2599% → 100%
Q3 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
98.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Touching (Dazz Newsome) to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
98.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 10Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
98.8%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Simmons, Emery, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Harris, Jakeen) 5 yards to the NCSTATE5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.8%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCSt 5Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:480% → 2%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Hockman, Bailey pass incomplete to Thomas, Thayer, PENALTY UNC holding (Morrison, Trey) 10 yards to the NCSTATE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+34
99.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 34 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
99.8%
Hockman, Bailey pass incomplete to Emezie, Emeka, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Hollins, DeAndre) 15 yards to the UNC16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+15
99.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 15 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Bailey Hockman run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 0:4999% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+15
99.0%
Michael Carter run for 15 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Javonte Williams run for 27 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:410% → 0%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Bailey Hockman run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 19 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-8
99.9%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 18
OWN 41
-5
99.9%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 23
OWN 36
+8
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 15
OWN 44
-4
99.9%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FG
7 plays · 24 yds · 3:20100% → 100%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+17
99.9%
British Brooks run for 17 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-5
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 18 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro British BrooksSimilar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+2
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 7:40
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
99.9%
Grayson Atkins 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Justin Dunn for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Anthony Smith for 19 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Justin DunnSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Malik DunlapSimilar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Justin DunnSimilar
Q4 6:37
4TH & 10
OPP 45
+15
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Christopher Scott Jr. for 15 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Anthony Smith for 30 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 3:51100% → 100%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-5
99.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (William Barnes) to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+16
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+1
99.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+4
100.0%
Josh Henderson run for 4 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 30 yds, downed at the NCSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24INT
6 plays · 53 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Justin DunnSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+34
100.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Christopher Scott Jr. for 34 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
100.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Anthony Smith for 3 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
100.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Andrew Jayne for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+11
100.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Anthony Smith for 11 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-13
100.0%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Cameron Roseman-Sinclair return for 13 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:56
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 17 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 0:54
Ben Finley pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 42 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-6
TD · Q2 11:59
Sam Howell run for 10 yds for a TD (Grayson Atkins KICK)
+3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com