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DUKE

Duke 20 at NC State 31

NCSU
2020 · Week 7 · Oct 17, 2020 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:08 · Trenton Gill punt for 48 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense+16.0Pregame prior+2.8Garbage-time factor+8.8Score differential+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:44: Jordan Houston run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 3:43: Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +13.2 pts (now 57%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. PUNT · Q2 0:45: Porter Wilson punt blocked by Vi Jones blocked by Vi Jones Max Fisher return for 8 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:01: Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +21.0 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +17.7 pts (now 87%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:51NCSU 4th & 11 at DUKE 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:24NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:11DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:07DUKE 4th & 3 at NCSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:55DUKE 4th & 18 at NCSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−2.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:43NCSU 4th & 5 at DUKE 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−0.9
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:45DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 19, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.3%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:55DUKE 4th & 1 at NCSU 1, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    54.6%−3.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−12.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:36NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 39, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:01DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 29, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:49DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 28, down 8
    Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:08NCSU 4th & 5 at DUKE 48, up 8
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:18DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 38, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:57NCSU 4th & 19 at NCSU 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−5.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:17NCSU 4th & 7 at DUKE 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−4.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:12DUKE 4th & 14 at NCSU 27, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.0%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:44NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:43DUKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:01NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55NCSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
62.9%
Chase Brice run for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-1
62.9%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
62.9%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
62.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:1663% → 61%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
62.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
62.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
62.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
63.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 15 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
63.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+2
63.0%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
62.9%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:51
4TH & 11
OPP 44
+32
60.8%
TEAM punt , Dorian Mausi returns for 32 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
60.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
60.8%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 15 Zonovan Knight fumbled, forced by Lummie Young IV, recovered by Duke Leonard JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
59.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCSt 14Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
59.8%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-4
60.0%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Porter Wilson return for 4 yds to the NCSt 11 Porter Wilson fumbled, forced by Jarett Garner, recovered by NCSt Payton WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
60.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+34
60.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 34 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
50
+9
60.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 9 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
60.9%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
60.9%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-14
60.6%
NC STATE Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (-14 Yards) to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
59.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
59.0%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+14
59.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (14 Yards) to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
58.7%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
58.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
58.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
58.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
58.3%
Chase Brice sacked by Isaiah Moore and Payton Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 6:11
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
58.8%
Porter Wilson punt for 28 yds, downed at the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
58.0%
Devin Leary pass intercepted Jeremiah Lewis return for no gain to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 3:3043% → 45%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
57.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 8 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+24
56.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, targeting (Jakeen Harris) to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
56.4%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
56.4%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
56.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+8
55.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
53.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
53.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 8
OPP 18
-10
54.4%
DUKE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 0:06
3RD & 18
OPP 28
0
54.9%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+46
54.9%
Charlie Ham 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:0254% → 62%
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
53.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-3
53.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+15
53.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 15 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
54.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
54.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 4 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
54.9%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+9
54.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 9 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
55.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q2 14:46
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
55.5%
Jordan Houston run for 5 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+23
54.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 23 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.5%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
19 plays · 89 yds · 6:5542% → 57%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
58.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 2 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
58.5%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+2
59.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Eli Pancol for 2 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+5
59.7%
NC STATE Penalty, roughing the kicker (Delbert Mimms III) to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
58.2%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+8
58.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 8 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
57.9%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
57.6%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+15
57.3%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Savion Jackson) to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
56.4%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+5
57.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 5 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+10
57.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
56.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 7 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
55.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+5
56.3%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
55.5%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+16
55.9%
Chase Brice run for 16 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
42.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0044% → 42%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
44.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 27 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
46.6%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
46.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 3:43
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+1
46.6%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
41.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4957% → 46%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
42.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
42.8%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-2
43.6%
Chase Brice sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+8
54.5%
Porter Wilson punt blocked by Vi Jones blocked by Vi Jones Max Fisher return for 8 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:3951% → 58%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
49.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 13 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
48.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 8 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+8
47.3%
Chase Brice run for 8 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
47.0%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
47.0%
Chase Brice pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
47.0%
Chase Brice run for 4 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+29
42.2%
Charlie Ham 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
49.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
49.9%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
48.4%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.7%
Devin Leary sacked by Derrick Tangelo for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 25 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by Duke Drew Jordan , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-15
41.9%
DUKE Penalty, UN (Derrick Tangelo) to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
42.3%
Chase Brice run for 23 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
41.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+2
41.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+9
42.6%
Chase Brice run for 9 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
41.9%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
41.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
42.5%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the NCSt 1Similar
Q3 12:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
45.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Dylan ParhamSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+30
44.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to N/A for 30 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
46.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 16
OWN 25
0
45.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 16
OWN 0
0
43.4%
DUKE Penalty, holding off-setting ( Yards) to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 16
OWN 25
+14
44.0%
Devin Leary run for 14 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 8:36
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+10
45.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds , Jontavis Robertson returns for 10 yds to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 62%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
39.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+10
39.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
37.9%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Porter Wilson return for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 1:1245% → 69%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
44.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
46.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+20
43.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 20 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+36
48.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 36 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.8%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
63.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Dennis Smith for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
63.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Noah Gray, broken up by Isaac DuffySimilar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
65.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 2:5564% → 87%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
64.1%
Devin Leary sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 18
OWN 18
+17
63.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 17 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+2
64.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
65.2%
Devin Leary run for 4 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, targeting (Lummie Young IV) to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
68.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+10
68.2%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jeremiah Lewis) to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
69.2%
Thayer Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+19
69.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Cary Angeline for 19 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
86.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
82.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
82.2%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-1
82.9%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+25
84.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSTATE 42 DUKE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
87.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 7
50
+1
87.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+1
86.5%
Bailey Hockman run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 13:08
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
85.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
84.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jarett Garner for 11 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
83.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 7 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
81.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:18
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
82.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli Pancol, broken up by Isaac DuffySimilar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
84.5%
Porter Wilson punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+14
87.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 14 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
87.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-10
86.5%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 10 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 9:57
4TH & 19
OWN 24
+9
85.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 56 yds , Jake Bobo returns for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 0:0014% → 17%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
86.1%
Chase Brice run for 6 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
84.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Marwede for 11 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
84.0%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+9
83.1%
Chase Brice run for 9 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-17
83.1%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Jaylon Scott return for 17 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:4992% → 95%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
91.6%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
91.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+14
90.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 14 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
91.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
91.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
91.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 3
OPP 18
-4
94.1%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
95.1%
Christopher Dunn 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27MISSED FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 2:055% → 3%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.3%
Chase Brice sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+18
95.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 18 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
94.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
94.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+8
93.5%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.6%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
93.6%
Chase Brice run for 12 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
93.0%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
95.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jarett Garner, broken up by Devan BoykinSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 9
OPP 22
-5
95.7%
Chase Brice sacked by Terrell Dawkins for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 14
OPP 27
+45
97.3%
Charlie Ham 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
97.9%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 15
OWN 22
-5
97.8%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:01
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 4 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+21
TD · Q4 14:55
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q2 3:43
Chase Brice pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds for a TD (Charlie Ham KICK)
-13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com