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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreNCSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:32 · Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Kent 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:23: Chris Rodriguez Jr. 4 Yd Run (Matt Ruffolo Kick) — UK win probability +6.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:02: Matt Ruffolo 26 Yd Field Goal — UK win probability +6.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:56: C.J. Riley 9 Yd pass from Bailey Hockman (Christopher Dunn Kick) — NCSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:46: Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds for a TD — NCSU win probability +33.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 2:55: Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +15.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 7:49UK 4th & 1 at NCSU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call59.8%71% to convertField goal59.5%−0.383% to makePunt58.5%−1.3average punt
- Q1 6:00UK 4th & 3 at NCSU 7, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snapGo for it59.9%46% to convertField goalTheir call59.7%−0.291% to makePunt58.1%−1.8average punt
- Q1 2:02UK 4th & 1 at NCSU 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call61.0%71% to convertField goal60.1%−0.958% to makePunt58.3%−2.7average punt
- Q1 0:04NCSU 4th & 18 at NCSU 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.4%−1.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.6%average punt
- Q2 12:14UK 4th & 8 at UK 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snapGo for it59.8%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.1%average punt
- Q2 9:02NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snapGo for it37.9%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.1%average punt
- Q2 2:32NCSU 4th & 1 at UK 21, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.7%71% to convertField goal27.0%−1.774% to makePunt22.1%−6.7average punt
- Q2 1:23NCSU 4th & 13 at UK 23, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snapGo for it25.2%−1.619% to convertField goalTheir call26.8%70% to makePunt22.3%−4.5average punt
- Q3 11:52NCSU 4th & 10 at UK 25, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.3% before the snapGo for it18.9%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call19.4%66% to makePunt15.2%−4.2average punt
- Q3 9:08UK 4th & 3 at UK 33, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it84.3%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.6%average punt
- Q3 2:56NCSU 4th & 6 at UK 9, down 13Close callWent for it · 14.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.1%−0.433% to convertField goal14.5%89% to makePunt7.5%−7.0average punt
- Q4 14:09UK 4th & 9 at NCSU 44, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.6% before the snapGo for it76.5%−0.532% to convertField goal75.2%−1.827% to makePuntTheir call77.0%average punt
- Q4 12:15NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 13, down 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 24.1% before the snapGo for it25.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.8%−1.5average punt
- Q4 9:02UK 4th & 2 at NCSU 40, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 84.6% before the snapGo for it84.4%57% to convertField goal80.9%−3.534% to makePuntTheir call81.5%−3.0average punt
- Q4 5:45UK 4th & 2 at NCSU 2, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snapGo for it87.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call84.2%−3.094% to makePunt72.3%−14.8average punt
- Q4 3:11UK 4th & 5 at UK 30, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.7% before the snapGo for it68.7%−1.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.3%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 6:23UK Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.6%97% to makeGo for two71.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:56NCSU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.1%97% to makeGo for two24.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 4:46NCSU Touchdown, down 3 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call28.0%−1.697% to makeGo for two29.5%45% to convert
- Q4 2:55UK Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−1.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUKDrive 1FG19 plays · 68 yds · 8:5559% → 60%
Q1 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
59.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+5
59.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
59.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Justin Rigg for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+7
59.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 7 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2INT5 plays · 14 yds · 1:1640% → 40%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
60.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 9 yds Devin Carter fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
59.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 5 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-7
59.8%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Brandin Echols return for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 3DOWNS5 plays · 19 yds · 2:1261% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5140% → 39%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
60.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 15 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-9
59.8%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Jamin Davis and Joshua Paschal for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 18
OWN 38
0
61.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds , Josh Ali returns for no gain to the Kent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 5PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 2:4660% → 59%
NCSUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:5740% → 40%
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+5
60.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Trent Pennix for 5 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
59.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Dylan Autenrieth for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
60.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Ali at the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 7TD6 plays · 79 yds · 2:3160% → 71%
Q2 8:08
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+20
60.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 20 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8MISSED FG17 plays · 52 yds · 4:4831% → 28%
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
68.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Kent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
67.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 2 yds to the Kent 44Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+19
69.8%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 19 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
67.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 8 yds to the Kent 22Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
71.9%
Christopher Dunn 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by TEAM Tyrell Ajian return for no gain to the Kent 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 9FG11 plays · 69 yds · 1:0972% → 80%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+31
72.4%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 31 yds to the NCSt 46 Asim Rose Jr. fumbled, recovered by Kent Asim Rose Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
74.4%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Allen Dailey Jr. for 17 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+23
75.5%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Keaton Upshaw for 23 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 15
OWN 35
-15
79.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11MISSED FG13 plays · 43 yds · 2:5822% → 20%
Q3 14:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+18
78.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
76.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 2 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-15
76.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie NC STATE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kent 38Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 23
OPP 38
+13
79.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to C.J. Riley for 13 yds to the Kent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2683% → 82%
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-2
83.4%
Asim Rose Jr. run for 13 yds to the Kent 41 KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Kent 26Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
83.6%
Terry Wilson pass complete to Isaiah Epps for 6 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
82.4%
Max Duffy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD16 plays · 76 yds · 5:5418% → 28%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
82.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to C.J. Riley for 16 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
80.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 11 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
79.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 5 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+20
80.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 20 yds to the Kent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+4
79.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 4 yds to the Kent 14Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
80.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Trent Pennix for 1 yd to the Kent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14PUNT9 plays · 14 yds · 3:3377% → 77%
NCSUDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3025% → 20%
UKDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5883% → 85%
NCSUDrive 17INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
80.3%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Yusuf Corker return for no gain to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 18FG7 plays · 40 yds · 3:0087% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD4 plays · 37 yds · 0:2912% → 45%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+29
87.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 21 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST down KENTUCKY Penalty, Roughing Passer (8 Yards) to the Kent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
88.5%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Phil Hoskins for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1972% → 71%
Q4 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
70.5%
Max Duffy punt for 51 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 1 yd to the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
66.4%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Jamin Davis return for 5 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 22TD2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD9 plays · 65 yds · 1:206% → 6%
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
93.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 12 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
93.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for 2 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+21
92.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 21 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
92.2%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Jordan Wright for a loss of 10 yards to the Kent 40 Bailey Hockman fumbled, recovered by NCSt Ikem Ekwonu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 20
OPP 40
+30
95.5%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Porter Rooks for 30 yds to the Kent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
94.4%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds to the Kent 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 24Uncategorized5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5988% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:46
Zonovan Knight run for 13 yds for a TD
-33.4
TD · Q4 2:55
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q3 2:56
C.J. Riley 9 Yd pass from Bailey Hockman (Christopher Dunn Kick)
-13.9