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NCSU

NC State 24 at Boston College 45

BC
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:04 · Peter Stehr run for 8 yds to the BC 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:36: Bailey Hockman pass intercepted for a TD Jason Maitre return for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +4.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:23: Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +7.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:07: David Bailey run for 54 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +8.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:51: David Bailey run for 48 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +15.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:02: AJ Dillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +7.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 5 at BC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:51NCSU 4th & 24 at NCSU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:55BC 4th & 21 at NCSU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:55NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:54BC 4th & 8 at NCSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:57NCSU 4th & 2 at BC 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−3.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00BC 4th & 6 at BC 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:51NCSU 4th & 7 at BC 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    85% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:23BC 4th & 7 at NCSU 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:23NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 34, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:07NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:33NCSU 4th & 6 at BC 46, down 21
    Close callPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 2 at BC 2, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−2.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−9.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:35NCSU 4th & 6 at BC 6, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:32NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:03BC 4th & 7 at BC 17, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:49NCSU 4th & 5 at BC 6, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:04NCSU 4th & 15 at BC 15, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 5:36BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:07BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:51BC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:02BC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:35NCSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:32BC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:49NCSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:28BC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:04NCSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
43.1%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
43.1%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
43.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+18
43.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 40 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 18 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
43.4%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
43.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-13
43.5%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Shitta Sillah for a loss of 13 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 24
OWN 22
+5
43.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 53 yds , Travis Levy returns for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 49 yds · 3:3344% → 45%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
43.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
43.9%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
43.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 5 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.1%
Zay Flowers run for no gain to the BC 40Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
44.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 9 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
44.1%
Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
44.2%
Bailey,D rush for 7 yards to the ST42 (Morehead, J.), PENALTY BC personal foul 9 yards to the BC42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & 19
OWN 42
0
44.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+51
43.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 51 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
44.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
44.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
44.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-12
44.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, intentional grounding (Dennis Grosel) to the NCSt 21Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
44.7%
Aaron Boumerhi 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
44.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
44.7%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-1
45.0%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Thayer Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 20Similar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 11
OWN 20
+16
45.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 47 , Travis Levy returns for 16 yds to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
45.8%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+6
45.9%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
45.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
45.9%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
45.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
45.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6INT TD
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:4555% → 50%
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
45.4%
Bailey Hockman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
45.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+8
49.8%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted for a TD Jason Maitre return for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7DOWNS
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:3951% → 50%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.0%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
49.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 11 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
48.4%
Thayer Thomas pass complete to Devin Carter for 24 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
47.8%
Bailey Hockman run for 7 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 3
OPP 23
-5
47.7%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Keyon Lesane for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 28Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+22
49.9%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 22 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
49.1%
Trent Pennix run for 3 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
49.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
49.8%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 2Similar
Q1 2:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
50.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5853% → 52%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
52.7%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 1Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 1
0
52.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:58
3RD & 11
OWN 1
+5
52.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Ben Glines for 5 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
52.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 3:0048% → 49%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
51.6%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+23
51.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 23 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
50.9%
Devin Leary run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 21 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devin LearySimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 15
OPP 21
0
51.5%
Jordan Houston run for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 15
OPP 21
+8
52.6%
Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
51.2%
Christopher Dunn 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:2251% → 60%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
51.4%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+7
52.4%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
52.4%
AJ Dillon run for 22 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
53.6%
Zay Flowers run for 2 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
53.6%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
52.8%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
53.6%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
53.6%
Zay Flowers run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+4
53.1%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 13
OPP 16
+6
52.3%
Dennis Grosel run for 6 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
60.1%
Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
59.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
58.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 7:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
59.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:5663% → 71%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
62.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-10
62.6%
Dillon,A rush for 5 yards to the ST39 (Johnson, D.), PENALTY BC holding (Phillips,J) 10 yards to the BC46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+54
70.9%
David Bailey run for 54 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.5%
Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 24Similar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
69.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
70.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 9 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+8
69.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 62 yds , Kobay White returns for 8 yds to the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
4 plays · 87 yds · 1:1071% → 88%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+27
71.3%
AJ Dillon run for 27 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
72.4%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+5
72.7%
Bailey,D rush for 4 yards to the ST49 (Acceus, L.), PENALTY ST offside 5 yards to the ST48, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
88.0%
David Bailey run for 48 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:1815% → 13%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
84.6%
Devin Leary sacked by Max Richardson for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 17
OWN 28
+11
85.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 11 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
84.6%
Leary, D. pass incomplete to Carter, D. (Maitre,J), PENALTY BC pass interference (Maitre,J) 11 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
50
0
84.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete NC STATE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 10
50
0
84.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tabari Hines, broken up by Josh DeBerrySimilar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 10
50
+4
84.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 4 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
86.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
89.8%
Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the BC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 73 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
87.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie, broken up by Brandon SebastianSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+55
86.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 55 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
85.1%
Matthew McKay run for 5 yds to the BC 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.1%
Trent Pennix run for no gain to the BC 2Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
18 plays · 98 yds · 6:3891% → 99%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
90.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 4Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
90.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 4
-2
90.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Ben Petrula) to the BC 2Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+11
90.5%
Dennis Grosel run for 11 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
90.9%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+7
91.0%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-5
90.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Tyler Vrabel) to the BC 17Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+9
90.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 9 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
91.1%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+25
91.1%
David Bailey run for 25 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
91.5%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+9
91.5%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
91.6%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
91.5%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the NCSt 32Similar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+24
91.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 24 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
91.6%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
91.6%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 2Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:271% → 5%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Jason MaitreSimilar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Cary Angeline, broken up by Max RichardsonSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 19 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
99.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 11 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
99.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jasiah Provillon for 38 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.0%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd to the BC 6Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan HoustonSimilar
Q3 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
98.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jasiah ProvillonSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:5796% → 100%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
95.9%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+15
96.1%
NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (Payton Wilson) to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
96.2%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+15
96.1%
David Bailey run for 15 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
96.2%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+7
96.2%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
96.2%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+1
96.2%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+13
97.7%
AJ Dillon run for 13 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.6%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane, broken up by Aaron GethersSimilar
Q4 14:32
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
99.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 51 yds, downed at the BC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
99.7%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 21
-1
99.7%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 20Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 2
OWN 22
-5
99.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 17Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
99.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:210% → 2%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+7
99.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
99.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the BC 42Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+15
99.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 15 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
99.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 16 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the BC 8Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+2
99.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q4 8:49
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+6
98.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 3:2199% → 100%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
98.8%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+28
98.8%
AJ Dillon run for 28 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
98.8%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
98.8%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+5
98.7%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:240% → 1%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+29
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for 29 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+24
99.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 24 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Cary AngelineSimilar
Q4 5:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
99.9%
Matthew McKay run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
99.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Cary Angeline for 15 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.4%
Peter Stehr run for 2 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-1
99.4%
Peter Stehr run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 31Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+8
99.4%
Peter Stehr run for 8 yds to the BC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:51
David Bailey run for 48 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+15.3
TD · Q2 5:07
David Bailey run for 54 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q2 7:23
Aaron Boumerhi 27 yd FG GOOD
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com