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NCSU

NC State 24 at Syracuse 17

SYR
2014 · Week 10 · Nov 1, 2014 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:20 · Wil Baumann punt for 24 yds, downed at the Syrac 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior+14.4Home team on offense−1.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:15: AJ Long pass complete to Ben Lewis for 15 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +11.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 11:38: AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +12.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:52: Pharoah McKever 82 Yd Interception Return (Jacoby Brissett Pass to Matt Dayes for Two-Point Conversion) — NCSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 2:14: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 18 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:17: Cole Murphy 50 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +8.6 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 12
  1. Q1 12:10NCSU 4th & 5 at SYR 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:38NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:17SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:20NCSU 4th & 9 at SYR 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37SYR 4th & 17 at SYR 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:22NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 35, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:10NCSU 4th & 18 at SYR 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−3.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:10SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:06NCSU 4th & 4 at SYR 4, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−6.0
    average punt
  11. Q2 8:06SYR 4th & 4 at NCSU 44, down 9
    Close callPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:23NCSU 4th & 10 at SYR 49, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:38NCSU 4th & 5 at NCSU 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:38SYR 4th & 5 at NCSU 37, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−1.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:29NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 14, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:52SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−4.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:59NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−2.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−4.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:43NCSU 4th & 5 at SYR 43, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−3.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−1.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:59SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 37, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−2.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:58NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−8.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 0:15SYR Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:38SYR Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:52NCSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    48.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:14NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:5033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
67.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 4 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+19
67.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 19 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
67.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 7 yds to the Syrac 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+5
67.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 5 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
67.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 12 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
67.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the Syrac 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
67.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
67.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo HinesSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+43
66.6%
Niklas Sade 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 2:1467% → 66%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
66.6%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 12 yds to the Syrac 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.7%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for no gain to the Syrac 37Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
66.7%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for no gain to the Syrac 37Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+17
66.6%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 17 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-9
67.0%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for a loss of 9 yards to the Syrac 45Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 19
OWN 45
0
66.1%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 19
OWN 45
0
65.9%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
65.7%
Riley Dixon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
66.1%
Matt Dayes run for 8 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
65.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
65.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 6 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 9:38
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
65.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
65.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for no gain to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 9:38
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
66.2%
Wil Baumann punt for 59 yds, downed at the Syrac 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
64.9%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 4 yds to the Syrac 6Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-4
64.8%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 2Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+1
64.5%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 1 yd to the Syrac 3Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+11
64.4%
Riley Dixon punt for 47 yds , Bo Hines returns for 11 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
64.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
63.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-4
64.1%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Cameron Lynch for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 38Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
64.9%
Wil Baumann punt for 24 yds, downed at the Syrac 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
63.6%
Ervin Philips run for 1 yd to the Syrac 15Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
63.5%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 9
OWN 15
-8
63.1%
AJ Long sacked by Brandon Pittman for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 7Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 17
OWN 7
-29
62.7%
Riley Dixon punt for 29 yds , Bo Hines returns for a loss of 29 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7FG
15 plays · 39 yds · 5:1237% → 42%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.2%
Bo Hines pass incomplete to Johnathan Alston, broken up by Brandon ReddishSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
63.4%
Matt Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-5
63.1%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+1
64.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 1 yd to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+18
64.3%
Jaylen Samuels run for 18 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
62.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+15
63.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 15 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
60.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the Syrac 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+7
60.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-6
60.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 28 Shadrach Thornton fumbled, forced by Zaire Franklin, recovered by NCSt Shadrach ThorntonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 28
+7
61.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 7 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 21
-5
61.4%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 26
0
61.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 18
OPP 26
+43
58.4%
Niklas Sade 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
58.3%
AJ Long sacked by Art Norman and B.J. Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 20Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
58.0%
AJ Long pass complete to Ben Lewis for 7 yds to the Syrac 27Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
57.4%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Ben LewisSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
57.1%
Riley Dixon punt for 24 yds, downed at the NCSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:4745% → 48%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
55.5%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the Syrac 48Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+29
55.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 29 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
54.8%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+12
54.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the Syrac 11 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Syrac 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
54.8%
Matt Dayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 8Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
54.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the Syrac 4Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
53.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
51.6%
Niklas Sade 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
51.5%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Syrac 15Similar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+35
51.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 35 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
50
0
53.5%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Jarrod WestSimilar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 10
50
+4
53.1%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+2
53.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Devante McFarlane for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
52.4%
Riley Dixon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
51.2%
Tony Creecy run for 3 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+3
51.2%
Tony Creecy run for 3 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+9
51.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 9 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
50.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 2 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+26
50.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 26 yds to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
48.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for no gain to the Syrac 49Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
48.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo HinesSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
49.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
50.7%
Wil Baumann punt for 45 yds, downed at the Syrac 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12TD
15 plays · 96 yds · 3:2348% → 59%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
47.5%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for 4 yds to the Syrac 8Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+10
47.4%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for 10 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
47.8%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for no gain to the Syrac 18Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
47.8%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+15
46.7%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-6
48.3%
AJ Long sacked by Mike Rose for a loss of 6 yards to the Syrac 27Similar
Q2 3:38
2ND & 16
OWN 27
+13
47.6%
AJ Long pass complete to Josh Parris for 13 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+30
48.9%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 30 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
51.9%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
49.1%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Steve Ishmael, broken up by Jack TochoSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+6
47.7%
AJ Long run for 6 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
47.3%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
59.1%
AJ Long pass complete to Ben Lewis for 15 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
56.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2259% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.6%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 8 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
60.8%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 3 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
59.6%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
58.5%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Ben Lewis, broken up by Jack TochoSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+15
57.3%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Syrac 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
61.7%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for 6 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
62.3%
AJ Long run for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
63.2%
AJ Long pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
63.3%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+5
61.9%
AJ Long run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
74.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
69.5%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 9
0
69.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 9
0
70.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for no gain to the NCSt 9Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 5
OWN 9
+5
71.5%
Wil Baumann punt for 38 yds , Ritchy Desir returns for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3574% → 74%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-13
74.1%
AJ Long sacked by Jerod Fernandez for a loss of 13 yards to the Syrac 47 AJ Long fumbled, recovered by Syrac Ben Lewis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 21
OWN 47
0
71.9%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 21
OWN 47
+16
70.6%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 16 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
73.7%
Riley Dixon punt for 27 yds, downed at the NCSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
73.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+8
73.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 8 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
74.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 1
OWN 19
-5
75.0%
NC STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+8
75.5%
Wil Baumann punt for 60 yds , Ritchy Desir returns for 8 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18INT TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:4873% → 60%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
73.4%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 5 yds to the Syrac 39Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-3
75.1%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 36Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+29
72.8%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 29 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
77.0%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for 6 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
77.1%
Ervin Philips run for 7 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+82
60.1%
Pharoah McKever 82 Yd Interception Return (Jacoby Brissett Pass to Matt Dayes for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.4%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Jarrod WestSimilar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.0%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 24Similar
Q3 2:52
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
50.3%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Ben LewisSimilar
Q3 2:52
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
49.5%
Riley Dixon punt for 43 yds, downed at the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
47.5%
Matt Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
46.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
48.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for no gain to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+15
50.5%
Wil Baumann punt for 53 yds , Ritchy Desir returns for 15 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4852% → 49%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
51.9%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for 12 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
53.0%
AJ Long pass complete to Adonis Ameen-Moore for 4 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
55.1%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-8
53.3%
AJ Long sacked by Brandon Pittman for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 34 SYRACUSE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
48.5%
Riley Dixon punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0052% → 54%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
47.7%
Matt Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+4
47.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+28
47.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 28 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
43.3%
Matt Dayes run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 12
50
+9
44.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 9 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-5
44.0%
NC STATE Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 46Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-10
44.2%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 18
OWN 44
+13
47.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Stephen Louis for 13 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
46.3%
Wil Baumann punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ritchy Desir at the Syrac 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
44.3%
AJ Long pass complete to Ben Lewis for 6 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+2
44.9%
Prince-Tyson Gulley run for 2 yds to the Syrac 14Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+16
43.1%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 16 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
46.1%
AJ Long pass complete to Prince-Tyson Gulley for 1 yd to the Syrac 31Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 31
-5
46.0%
Adonis Ameen-Moore run for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 26Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+11
43.0%
AJ Long pass complete to Adonis Ameen-Moore for 11 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
44.1%
Riley Dixon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0066% → 62%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
33.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
33.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-7
35.6%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Ron Thompson and Trevon Trejo for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+7
38.0%
Wil Baumann punt for 44 yds , Ritchy Desir returns for 7 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25FUMBLE
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
40.7%
NC STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Syrac 38Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+10
41.9%
AJ Long sacked by Bryan Underwood for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 23 NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 38Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
44.0%
AJ Long run for 4 yds to the Syrac 42Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-7
46.6%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 8 yds to the 50 yard line SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Syrac 35Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+1
41.3%
AJ Long run for 1 yd to the Syrac 35 AJ Long fumbled, forced by Rodman Noel, recovered by NCSt Kenton GibbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:4078% → 95%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
21.9%
Matt Dayes run for 7 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
21.8%
Matt Dayes run for 4 yds to the Syrac 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
21.8%
Matt Dayes run for 3 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
16.1%
Bra'Lon Cherry run for 3 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+18
5.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 18 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27FG
15 plays · 43 yds · 1:575% → 12%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.0%
AJ Long pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
4.9%
AJ Long pass complete to Alvin Cornelius for 19 yds to the Syrac 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
5.6%
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 5 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+10
5.9%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 10 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
6.2%
AJ Long pass incomplete, broken up by Hakim JonesSimilar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+32
6.1%
AJ Long pass complete to Jarrod West for 32 yds to the NCSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
7.7%
SYRACUSE Penalty, H0 (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 19Similar
Q4 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
-5
7.1%
AJ Long sacked by Art Norman for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
0
4.3%
AJ Long pass incomplete, broken up by B.J. HillSimilar
Q4 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 24
-8
3.7%
AJ Long sacked by Art Norman for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 32Similar
Q4 0:17
4TH & 0
OPP 32
+50
11.8%
Cole Murphy 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
10.4%
AJ Long pass incomplete to Ben LewisSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
9.6%
AJ Long pass intercepted Josh Jones return for no gain to the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
6.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:52
Pharoah McKever 82 Yd Interception Return (Jacoby Brissett Pass to Matt Dayes for Two-Point Conversion)
-17
TD · Q3 11:38
AJ Long pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 25 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+12.4
TD · Q2 0:15
AJ Long pass complete to Ben Lewis for 15 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com