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NCSU

NC State 35 at North Carolina 7

UNC
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:14 · Wil Baumann punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−2.1Score differential−0.7Pregame prior+15.5Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:52: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 2 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 54%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:44: Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 11:33: Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27 — NCSU win probability +6.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:22: Timeout NC STATE, clock 06:22 — NCSU win probability +8.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:21: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:02UNC 4th & 10 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57NCSU 4th & 12 at NCSU 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:35UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:14NCSU 4th & 8 at UNC 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:27UNC 4th & 8 at NCSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    54.2%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:50UNC 4th & 24 at UNC 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−2.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:28UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−2.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:21UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 20, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:09NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 46, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:09UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 47, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:57NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 45, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:52NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:44NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:21NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:18NCSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:48UNC Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:5832% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
68.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 12 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
68.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
68.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to David Grinnage, broken up by Malik SimmonsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+19
68.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 19 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
68.2%
Matt Dayes run for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
68.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 10 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
68.2%
Matt Dayes run for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+9
68.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
65.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 17 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
66.4%
Marquise Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
66.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+10
66.5%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 10 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
66.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
50
0
66.8%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
50
0
66.7%
Marquise Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 10
50
0
66.5%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack Hollins, broken up by T.Y. McGillSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 10
50
0
66.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
65.2%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Ethan Farmer for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 11Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+2
65.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
65.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete, broken up by Nazair JonesSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
65.6%
Wil Baumann punt for 49 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4365% → 64%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
64.7%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
64.9%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
64.2%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Mack Hollins, broken up by Juston BurrisSimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
63.9%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 49 yds , Bo Hines returns for no gain to the NCSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
63.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+12
63.7%
Jaylen Samuels run for 12 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
63.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 8 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+7
63.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
63.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 10 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
62.9%
Matt Dayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+4
62.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-1
63.0%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Jessie Rogers for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
63.5%
Wil Baumann punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6MISSED FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:5661% → 60%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
60.8%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
61.1%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Romar Morris for 11 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
61.3%
Marquise Williams pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 15 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
62.2%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+24
61.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Bug Howard for 24 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
62.5%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+4
62.5%
Marquise Williams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-4
61.8%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
60.0%
Thomas Moore 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3541% → 54%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
59.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+58
58.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 58 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
57.2%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+3
57.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+10
57.5%
Brissett, J. pass incomplete to Hines, B. (Scott, T), PENALTY NC pass interference (Scott, T) 10 yards to the NC2, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
57.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
57.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 2 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Mack Hollins) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
47.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 28 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Elijah Hood) to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 17
OWN 18
+6
47.8%
Marquise Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
47.9%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+13
47.4%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 13 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
48.7%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
48.0%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-12
47.6%
Marquise Williams sacked by Rodman Noel for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 9:50
4TH & 24
OWN 23
+48
47.4%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 48 yds , Bo Hines returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:0256% → 70%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
43.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
43.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 5:20
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+60
42.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 60 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
29.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10INT
16 plays · 40 yds · 1:5732% → 35%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
31.6%
Marquise Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-1
31.4%
Marquise Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 18 Marquise Williams fumbled, forced by Pharoah McKever, recovered by NCaro Marquise WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:37
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-15
31.1%
Marquise Williams sacked by Pharoah McKever for a loss of 15 yards to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 4:37
4TH & 30
OWN 3
+15
30.8%
Hibbard, T punt 45 yards to the NC48, downed, PENALTY ST roughing the kicker (Means, M.) 15 yards to the NC18, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
29.0%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Josh JonesSimilar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
28.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to T.J. LoganSimilar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+15
31.4%
Williams, M pass incomplete, PENALTY ST face mask (Rose, M.) 15 yards to the NC33, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
32.1%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete, broken up by Mike RoseSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
32.0%
Romar Morris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+7
33.5%
Marquise Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
34.4%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
34.2%
Marquise Williams run for 12 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
34.8%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
34.9%
Marquise Williams pass intercepted Juston Burris return for no gain to the NCSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:1272% → 76%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
28.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 7Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+4
27.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+7
26.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
24.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 2:3225% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.8%
Marquise Williams pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.6%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
25.6%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
25.7%
Marquise Williams pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
25.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Arien Smith) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+3
24.6%
Marquise Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+11
24.5%
Williams, M pass complete to Davis, Q for 10 yards to the NC45 (Tocho, J.), PENALTY ST pass interference (Tocho, J.) 11 yards to the NC46, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-11
26.8%
Marquise Williams sacked by T.Y. McGill for a loss of 11 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 21
OWN 35
+6
21.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
22.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
22.1%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 7:1285% → 98%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
15.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
15.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+7
15.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
14.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 5 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
14.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 11:33
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+28
14.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 28 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
14.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-2
14.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+16
5.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 16 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
5.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
5.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.6%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
5.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to T.J. ThorpeSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
5.4%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Thomas Teal for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
5.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 60 yds · 6:5898% → 100%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
2.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 12 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
2.2%
Thornton, S. rush for 8 yards to the NC40 (Lawrence, D), PENALTY ST holding (Crisp, R.) 10 yards to the ST42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+1
2.2%
Jaylen Samuels run for 1 yd to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 19
OWN 43
+20
2.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 20 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
2.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+17
2.2%
Matt Dayes run for 17 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
0.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
0.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+4
0.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+4
0.8%
Sade, N. field goal attempt from 24 GOOD, clock 12:51, PENALTY NC roughing the kicker (Davis, K) 4 yards to the NC3, 1ST DOWN ST, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
0.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
0.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 11:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 2 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Josh Jones return for 1 yd to the NCSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+2
0.5%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
0.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+19
0.6%
Wil Baumann punt for 34 yds, downed at the UNC 20 NC STATE Penalty, kick catching interference (Josh Jones) to the NCaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
0.3%
Romar Morris run for 12 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Romar MorrisSimilar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Kendrick SingletonSimilar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
0.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Niles ClarkSimilar
Q4 11:09
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+25
0.3%
Tommy Hibbard punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the UNC 13 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, kick catching interference (Brian Walker) to the NCSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
0.4%
Tony Creecy run for 7 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
0.4%
Matt Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
0.3%
Tony Creecy run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
0.3%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 6:57
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-3
0.3%
Tony Creecy run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 6:57
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
0.3%
Wil Baumann punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Austin Proehl at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:580% → 0%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+28
0.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 28 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
0.1%
Romar Morris run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+6
0.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 6 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, OF ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+27
0.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 27 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
0.2%
Romar Morris run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 15
OPP 25
0
0.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 15
OPP 25
+15
0.1%
Trubisky, M pass incomplete to Davis, Q, PENALTY ST pass interference (Clark, N.) 15 yards to the ST10, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
0.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
0.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Quinshad DavisSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
0.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Quinshad Davis for 13 yds for a TD, (Thomas Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
0.1%
Tony Creecy run for 3 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+2
0.1%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+2
0.1%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:44
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
-12.9
TD · Q2 9:52
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 2 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
-11.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 6:22
Timeout NC STATE, clock 06:22
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com