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NCSU

NC State 18 at Louisville 30

LOU
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-4.9LOU 82.3%Niklas Sade 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 9 - HOME 17 · Q3 7:06
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:06 · Niklas Sade 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 111Pregame prior+13.5Home team on offense+7.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score differential+2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Blowout margin+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:21: Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 3 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +5.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 7:06: Niklas Sade 48 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:28: Niklas Sade 25 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:21: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 21 yds for a TD, (Jacoby Brissett failed ) — NCSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:44: Michael Dyer run for 46 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK) — LOU win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 8:47NCSU 4th & 2 at LOU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:34LOU 4th & 22 at NCSU 47, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:15NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 14, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:36LOU 4th & 6 at NCSU 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:09NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:12LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:45NCSU 4th & 8 at LOU 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:15NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 38, down 11
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:23LOU 4th & 9 at NCSU 20, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−3.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:06NCSU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:30LOU 4th & 9 at NCSU 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−8.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:28NCSU 4th & 8 at LOU 8, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.7%−0.5
    90% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:27LOU 4th & 17 at NCSU 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.3%−4.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:06LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:21LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:44LOU Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4483% → 83%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+37
83.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 37 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
83.3%
Will Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
83.1%
Michael Dyer run for 7 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+8
82.9%
Michael Dyer run for 8 yds to the NCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
82.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 4 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
82.7%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
83.3%
Eli Rogers 13 Yd pass from Will Gardner (John Wallace Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:0317% → 17%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
83.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 21 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
82.7%
Matt Dayes run for 17 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
82.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+5
82.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
82.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+1
82.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 1 yd to the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1683% → 83%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.7%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Ryan Johnson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 5:0317% → 21%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
82.6%
Matt Dayes run for 3 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
82.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
82.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q1 6:48
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+15
82.7%
Baumann, Wil punt 56 yards to the LOUISVILLE0, touchback, PENALTY LOUISVILLE roughing the kicker 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
82.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 6 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
81.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+6
81.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
81.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
81.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 7 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
81.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
78.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 16 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 4:5680% → 78%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.2%
Michael Dyer run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
80.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 6 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
79.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 9 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
80.3%
Will Gardner pass complete to Charles Standberry for 3 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
80.4%
Michael Dyer run for 9 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
80.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 7 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+6
80.4%
Michael Dyer run for 6 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-8
80.5%
Will Gardner sacked by Airius Moore for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+2
79.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to James Quick for 2 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 16
OPP 41
-6
78.9%
Will Gardner sacked by Brandon Pittman for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 22
OPP 47
0
78.1%
Ryan Johnson punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bra'Lon Cherry at the NCSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:0422% → 21%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
78.5%
Matt Dayes run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 8Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+2
78.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 12
OWN 10
+4
78.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 8
OWN 14
+25
79.0%
Wil Baumann punt for 40 yds, downed at the LOUISVILLE 46 NC STATE Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (NA) to the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:2980% → 79%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
79.5%
Quick, James rush for loss of 3 yards to the NCSTATE42, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the NCSTATE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+22
78.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 22 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
79.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
79.6%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q2 8:42
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
79.1%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
79.0%
John Wallace 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:1621% → 21%
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
79.0%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by B.J. Dubose for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
79.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 15 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
77.7%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+6
78.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 6 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
77.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo HinesSimilar
Q2 5:09
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
78.8%
Wil Baumann punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Eli Rogers at the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4779% → 77%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
78.5%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 12Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 14
OWN 12
0
78.2%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q2 4:23
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
77.5%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
76.8%
Ryan Johnson punt for 49 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for no gain to the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1523% → 22%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
76.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Stephen Louis for 10 yds to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
76.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Stephen LouisSimilar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
76.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 2 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
76.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo HinesSimilar
Q2 2:45
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+4
77.7%
Wil Baumann punt for 33 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 2:0678% → 86%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
78.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Michael Dyer for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+21
77.7%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 21 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
79.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Tyler Ferguson for 9 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
79.5%
Will Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
78.8%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 10 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
79.6%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 11 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.0%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+27
80.8%
Michael Dyer run for 27 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.8%
Michael Dyer run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
80.7%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 3Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 3 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:2915% → 13%
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
85.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+7
85.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 7 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 38
0
84.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matt DayesSimilar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+47
87.0%
Wil Baumann punt for 56 yds , Eli Rogers returns for 47 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14MISSED FG
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:2288% → 87%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
88.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Gerald Christian for 15 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
88.1%
Michael Dyer run for 11 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
88.3%
Michael Dyer run for 1 yd to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
88.3%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Kai De La CruzSimilar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
87.9%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to DeVante ParkerSimilar
Q3 11:23
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
87.2%
John Wallace 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:4713% → 18%
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
87.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 20 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Jaylen SamuelsSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
86.7%
Matt Dayes run for 5 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
86.4%
Brissett, Jacoby pass incomplete to Hines, Bo, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference 8 yards to the LOUISVILLE47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
85.9%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+8
86.0%
Matt Dayes run for 8 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Shadrach ThorntonSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-3
86.1%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Lorenzo Mauldin for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 13
OPP 40
+9
87.2%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+48
82.3%
Niklas Sade 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 6:2786% → 90%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.6%
Michael Dyer run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
87.1%
Michael Dyer run for 8 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
87.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
88.2%
Michael Dyer run for 4 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
88.4%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
89.2%
L.J. Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 8
50
+4
89.2%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
89.0%
Will Gardner pass complete to Eli Rogers for 9 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
89.8%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
90.3%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Gerald ChristianSimilar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+12
89.5%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 12 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
90.6%
Will Gardner run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+6
90.3%
Michael Dyer run for 6 yds to the NCSt 21Similar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
89.8%
Will Gardner pass incomplete to Eli RogersSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
90.2%
John Wallace 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:3410% → 13%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+32
89.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 32 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
87.8%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+7
87.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 7 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
87.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
87.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to NaQuan Brown for 5 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+15
87.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 15 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
88.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 9 yds to the Lvile 2Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
88.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the Lvile 2Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+1
90.1%
Dayes, Matt rush for loss of 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE12, PENALTY LOUISVILLE face mask 1 yards to the LOUISVILLE1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
89.2%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by James Burgess for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
89.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to NaQuan BrownSimilar
Q4 9:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (NA) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
87.1%
Niklas Sade 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:4191% → 95%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
90.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to L.J. Scott for 5 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+12
91.7%
Michael Dyer run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
50
+17
92.7%
Michael Dyer run for 17 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
93.5%
Michael Dyer run for 3 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+9
93.9%
Will Gardner pass complete to DeVante Parker for 9 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
93.9%
Will Gardner pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-7
94.9%
Will Gardner sacked by Art Norman for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 17
OPP 28
0
95.1%
L.J. Scott run for no gain to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+45
94.6%
John Wallace 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:544% → 17%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
95.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 6 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
95.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 2 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+43
96.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 43 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
95.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
95.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+21
83.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 21 yds for a TD, (Jacoby Brissett failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:1294% → 98%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
93.9%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 11
OPP 45
-1
93.9%
Michael Dyer run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+46
98.3%
Michael Dyer run for 46 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21INT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:382% → 3%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 11 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
97.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Stephen Louis for 21 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
97.3%
Brissett, Jacoby pass complete to Hines, Bo for 14 yards to the LOUISVILLE29, PENALTY NCSTATE illegal motion 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
97.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted, touchback. Gerod Holliman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:21
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 21 yds for a TD, (Jacoby Brissett failed )
-12.4
TD · Q2 0:21
Will Gardner pass complete to Kai De La Cruz for 3 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)
+5.1
FG · Q3 7:06
Niklas Sade 48 yd FG GOOD
-4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com