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FSU

Florida State 56 at NC State 41

NCSU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2014 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+50.0+25.00−25.0−50.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:40: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 10 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 45%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:14: Dalvin Cook run for 19 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +16.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 6:37: Shadrach Thornton run for 10 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:06: Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 15 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 3:24: Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +15.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:16NCSU 4th & 8 at FSU 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.4%
    77% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:23FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:05NCSU 4th & 16 at NCSU 2, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−2.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:49NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:31FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:03NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:04FSU 4th & 26 at FSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−3.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:05NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 20, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:57NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:58NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 40, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:08NCSU 4th & 8 at FSU 9, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.2%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.0%−3.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:26NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 48, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:42NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:03FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:05NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:06NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:51FSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 11:58FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:40NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:14FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 6:37NCSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:06FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 3:24FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 12:23FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 2:07FSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:186% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
6.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 21 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
6.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 54 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:3994% → 93%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
6.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 19 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
6.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+5
6.3%
Karlos Williams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+9
6.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Christian Green for 9 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
6.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 5 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-15
6.8%
Williams, Karlos rush for 6 yards to the NCSTATE11, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal block 15 yards to the NCSTATE32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 20
OPP 32
0
7.0%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Nick O'LearySimilar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+32
6.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 32 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:587% → 11%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.9%
Bo Hines pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
7.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
7.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 6 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
7.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
7.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 7 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
8.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
50
+5
8.3%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+8
8.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
8.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 6 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+10
9.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
9.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 16 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
9.2%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
10.4%
Jameis Winston sacked by T.Y. McGill for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 21 Jameis Winston fumbled, forced by T.Y. McGill, recovered by NCSt Monty Nelson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4211% → 12%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
10.8%
Jacoby Brissett run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
11.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
11.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bryan UnderwoodSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+37
11.5%
Niklas Sade 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5389% → 88%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
10.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 18
0
11.3%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Christian GreenSimilar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 11
OWN 18
0
11.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
11.8%
Cason Beatty punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:1712% → 18%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+45
12.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 45 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
12.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+7
13.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 7 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 1
OPP 3
-5
13.3%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+8
17.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 8 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 3:0983% → 85%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
17.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+39
17.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 39 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
17.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 5 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
17.4%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+18
17.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 18 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
17.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 4
OPP 12
0
19.0%
Karlos Williams run for no gain to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+4
19.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
19.4%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.0%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
14.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4616% → 17%
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
15.7%
Matt Dayes run for no gain to the NCSt 8Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
16.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 10
OWN 8
-6
16.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 2Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 16
OWN 2
+20
16.6%
Wil Baumann punt for 40 yds , Rashad Greene returns for 20 yds to the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
13.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Christian Green for 22 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:0215% → 17%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matt DayesSimilar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
14.7%
Matt Dayes run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 11:05
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+10
14.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 10 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
15.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 14 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
17.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+4
16.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 4 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
17.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
16.6%
Wil Baumann punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:1883% → 81%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+20
17.1%
Karlos Williams run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+24
17.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 24 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
16.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-2
16.8%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
17.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Christian GreenSimilar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 8
OPP 46
-5
18.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 6:31
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
19.4%
Cason Beatty punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 4:2819% → 22%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
19.2%
Bryan Underwood run for 5 yds to the NCSt 18Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+1
19.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 1 yd to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+7
19.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 7 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
20.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+14
21.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 14 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
22.9%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
22.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+7
22.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 7 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-6
23.5%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Eddie Goldman for a loss of 6 yards to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 14
OWN 37
+58
22.4%
Wil Baumann punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the NCSTATE 9 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Rashad Greene) to the FlaSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 8 yds · 1:5977% → 73%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
23.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Nick O'Leary) to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 13
OWN 2
+2
23.0%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+4
24.3%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+21
26.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 21 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
24.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-18
25.1%
Jameis Winston sacked by Art Norman for a loss of 18 yards to the FlaSt 11 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 28
OWN 11
+2
26.3%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 26
OWN 13
+6
27.3%
Cason Beatty punt for 42 yds , Bo Hines returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+36
28.9%
Jacoby Brissett run for 36 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:1575% → 76%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
25.5%
Winston, Jameis pass incomplete to Greene, Rashad, PENALTY NCSTATE roughing passer (Rose, Mike) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
24.4%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Jerod Fernandez return for no gain to the NCSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 2:0529% → 45%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
28.8%
Jaylen Samuels run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
30.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 8 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+4
31.4%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
32.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Cole CookSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+19
32.6%
Jacoby Brissett run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
32.8%
Brissett, Jacoby pass incomplete to Underwood, Bryan, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Williams, P.J.) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
32.8%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
45.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 10 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 4:2158% → 71%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
42.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+12
44.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 12 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
43.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Karlos Williams for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
44.0%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
44.7%
Karlos Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
45.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 17 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
45.9%
Karlos Williams run for 13 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
44.6%
Karlos Williams run for 6 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
28.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 19 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0335% → 35%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
35.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 8Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 14
OWN 8
0
35.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Tyler PurvisSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 14
OWN 8
+12
34.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 12 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 2
OWN 20
-2
34.5%
Wil Baumann punt for 51 yds , Rashad Greene returns for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 27 Rashad Greene fumbled, recovered by NCSt Malcolm MeansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:2842% → 59%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
41.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+17
42.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
58.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 10 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:3146% → 68%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
53.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+5
54.6%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 5 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+16
55.4%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 16 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+40
54.1%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 40 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
50.9%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
31.9%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 15 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:5940% → 42%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
39.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 9 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+7
42.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-17
42.3%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 17 yards to the NCSt 6 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, forced by Derrick Nnadi, recovered by FlaSt Jacob Pugh , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2766% → 84%
Q3 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
33.8%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.2%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 4 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 2:2722% → 22%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
21.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+1
22.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
21.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 6 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
23.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
25.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 7 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
26.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
24.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo HinesSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
23.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bryan UnderwoodSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
22.0%
Wil Baumann punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Rashad Greene at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 3:3479% → 91%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+35
21.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 35 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
18.5%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Rashad GreeneSimilar
Q3 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
18.4%
Winston, Jameis pass incomplete to Wilson, Jesus, PENALTY NCSTATE personal foul 15 yards to the NCSTATE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
18.0%
Jameis Winston run for 3 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+11
16.8%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 11 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
16.9%
Karlos Williams run for 7 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+1
17.1%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+13
19.5%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Rashad Greene for 13 yds to the NCSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.9%
Karlos Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.4%
Karlos Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26FUMBLE
16 plays · 72 yds · 3:3311% → 12%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+12
10.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 12 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
10.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 13 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
11.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo HinesSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
10.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 9 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
11.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Tyler PurvisSimilar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
10.7%
Shadrach Thornton run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
9.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Shadrach Thornton for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 2
50
+4
10.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
10.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 7 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
10.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Matt DayesSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+13
10.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 13 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
11.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 9 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+4
11.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-9
11.8%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Jalen Ramsey for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 22 Jacoby Brissett fumbled, forced by Jalen Ramsey, recovered by FlaSt Giorgio Newberry , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:3592% → 93%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
7.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-11 Yards) to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+16
7.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (16 Yards) to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
7.2%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+19
7.2%
Jameis Winston pass intercepted Jerod Fernandez return for 19 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0712% → 13%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-15
11.6%
Brissett, Jacoby pass incomplete to Dayes, Matt, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference 15 yards to the FLORIDAST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 26
OPP 27
+13
10.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 13 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+5
9.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
9.3%
Garrett Leatham pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+25
13.0%
Niklas Sade 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0192% → 99%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
7.8%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
7.6%
Jameis Winston pass incomplete to Karlos WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:34
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
8.3%
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 10 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
7.0%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-4
6.4%
Jameis Winston sacked by Dravious Wright for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+20
8.0%
Jameis Winston run for 20 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
4.6%
Karlos Williams run for 28 yds to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
3.3%
Karlos Williams run for 3 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
1.1%
Karlos Williams run for 12 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 30DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:411% → 1%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
1.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+12
0.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 12 yds David Grinnage fumbled, recovered by NCSt Johnathan Alston for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
0.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Johnathan AlstonSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-2
0.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+3
0.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 3 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+7
0.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 7 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:06
Jameis Winston pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 15 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
-19
TD · Q3 6:37
Shadrach Thornton run for 10 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
+16.8
TD · Q3 8:14
Dalvin Cook run for 19 yds for a TD, (Roberto Aguayo KICK)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com