2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadPRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scorePRES score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:24 · Jacoby Brissett run for 1 yd to the Presb 18 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:24: Jacoby Brissett run for 1 yd to the Presb 18 for a 1ST down — PRES win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:58: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 18 yds for a TD PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Steve Osondu) declined, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:09: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 27 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:55: Darrell Bridges run for 8 yds to the Presb 34 — PRES win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: PRES has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:46: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bryan Underwood for 65 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5PRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
- Q1 12:20PRES 4th & 11 at PRES 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.226% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 9:04PRES 4th & 13 at PRES 12, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.7%average punt
- Q1 7:05NCSU 4th & 9 at PRES 38, up 7Close callPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it98.2%32% to convertField goal98.2%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call98.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 5:46PRES 4th & 9 at PRES 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 4:49NCSU 4th & 20 at NCSU 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q2 12:26PRES 4th & 8 at NCSU 27, down 7Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−<0.133% to convertField goal3.1%62% to makePunt2.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:12NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 31, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.5%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.6%average punt
- Q2 4:40PRES 4th & 12 at PRES 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it3.8%−0.423% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 2:24NCSU 4th & 1 at PRES 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.4%71% to convertField goal95.0%−0.477% to makePunt94.0%−1.4average punt
- Q3 1:42PRES 4th & 5 at NCSU 48, down 35Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:55PRES 4th & 13 at PRES 49, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:16NCSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 20, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:05PRES 4th & 2 at PRES 34, down 42Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 10:32NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:58NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:09NCSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:46NCSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:35NCSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:41NCSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartPRESDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:301% → 1%
Q1 14:02
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
99.3%
Heys McMath pass complete to Jeremiah McKie for 3 yds to the Presb 26Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+6
99.2%
Heys McMath pass complete to Jeremiah McKie for 6 yds to the Presb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+42
99.2%
Stephen Doar punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSTATE 22 PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) to the NCSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
PRESDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:061% → 1%
NCSUDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4599% → 99%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 7 yds to the Presb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:141% → 1%
NCSUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · -10 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
PRESDrive 7DOWNS17 plays · 55 yds · 6:491% → 2%
Q1 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 20
-5
98.6%
Heys McMath sacked by TEAM and - Team for a loss of 5 yards to the Presb 15Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+7
98.5%
Heys McMath pass complete to Kris Hurley for 7 yds to the Presb 40Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+8
98.1%
Heys McMath pass complete to Jeremiah McKie for 8 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4898% → 98%
Q2 11:23
3RD & 4
OWN 33
-2
97.9%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Darius Norfleet for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 30 yds · 5:122% → 3%
Q2 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+13
97.4%
Heys McMath pass complete to Tobi Antigha for 13 yds to the Presb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 37
-9
97.3%
PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Bristow) to the Presb 28Similar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 12
OWN 32
+5
97.2%
Stephen Doar punt for 37 yds , Bo Hines returns for 5 yds to the NCSt 37 NC STATE Penalty, Illegal Block (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD10 plays · 74 yds · 2:2297% → 98%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
97.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 9 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+8
97.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 8 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 4 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 3:43
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+25
97.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 25 yds to the Presb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
97.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 6 yds to the Presb 22Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+3
97.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 3 yds to the Presb 19Similar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
98.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 18 yds for a TD PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Steve Osondu) declined, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 11FUMBLE3 plays · 2 yds · 0:252% → 2%
Q2 1:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
97.7%
Jeremiah McKie run for 1 yd to the Presb 27 Jeremiah McKie fumbled, forced by Mike Rose, recovered by NCSt Thomas Teal PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12TD1 play · 27 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
99.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 27 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · 13 yds · 0:451% → 1%
NCSUDrive 14TD2 plays · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
99.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bryan Underwood for 65 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 15MISSED FG17 plays · 62 yds · 7:230% → 0%
Q3 12:51
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
99.8%
Heys McMath pass complete to Tobi Antigha for 4 yds to the Presb 39Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
99.8%
Heys McMath pass complete to Tobi Antigha for 8 yds to the Presb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.8%
Heys McMath pass complete to Blake Roberts for 11 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-2
99.8%
Heys McMath pass complete to Jordan Hallums for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+33
99.8%
Heys McMath pass complete to Jordan Hallums for 33 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 0
OPP 7
-10
99.7%
PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Austin Allen) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
99.9%
Heys McMath pass complete to Tobi Antigha for 1 yd to the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD4 plays · 80 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
PRESDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 27 yds · 3:180% → 0%
Q3 4:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+19
99.9%
Heys McMath pass complete to Tobi Antigha for 19 yds to the Presb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-4
99.9%
Heys McMath run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 48 Heys McMath fumbled, recovered by Presb Darrell BridgesSimilar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Stephen Doar punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bo Hines at the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD13 plays · 86 yds · 3:50100% → 100%
Q3 0:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
99.9%
PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Ryan Brown) to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Stephen Louis for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 10 yds to the Presb 37 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaylen Samuels) to the Presb 47Similar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
99.9%
Bryan Underwood run for 7 yds to the Presb 23 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyler Purvis) to the Presb 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 3:250% → 0%
NCSUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRESDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:290% → 0%
NCSUDrive 22Uncategorized9 plays · 37 yds · 4:15100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:09
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 27 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q2 1:58
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 18 yds for a TD PRESBYTERIAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Steve Osondu) declined, (Niklas Sade KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q3 14:46
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bryan Underwood for 65 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
+0.9