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NCSU

NC State 42 at Wake Forest 45

WAKE
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—WAKE 55.2%Christopher Dunn 46 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 7 · Q1 2:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:33 · Christopher Dunn 46 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Pregame prior+2.6Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:05: Sam Hartman run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +14.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:47: Ivan Mora kickoff for 65 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 100 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:05: Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +15.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:07: Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds for a TD (Devin Leary pass to Emeka Emezie for Two-Point Conversion) — NCSU win probability +28.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:45: Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +27.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NCSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:41WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25NCSU 4th & 6 at WAKE 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:24WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:28NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:33NCSU 4th & 9 at WAKE 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    41.4%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:59NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:08WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:28NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−2.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:23WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:35NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 36, down 8
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:51WAKE 4th & 10 at NCSU 35, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:56WAKE 4th & 20 at WAKE 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−5.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:55WAKE 4th & 9 at NCSU 34, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    49.6%
    47% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:55NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:56WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 28, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−2.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:53NCSU 4th & 7 at WAKE 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    26.6%−8.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:34NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:14NCSU 4th & 1 at WAKE 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−1.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 7:45WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:34WAKE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:05WAKE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:47NCSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28NCSU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:07WAKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:05WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:07NCSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:47WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:45NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1453% → 53%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
53.3%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
53.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
53.3%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
53.4%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:1647% → 47%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
53.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 17Similar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+14
53.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 14 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+54
53.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 54 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
53.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 16Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+5
53.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
53.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete, broken up by Traveon ReddSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
53.3%
Christopher Dunn 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5653% → 53%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.4%
Justice Ellison run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
53.4%
Sam Hartman sacked by Cory Durden for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
53.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
53.0%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds, downed at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5347% → 46%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
53.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
53.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
53.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
53.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:4053% → 56%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
53.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+10
53.4%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY NCSTATE holding 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
53.9%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+13
54.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 13 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
54.0%
Christian Turner run for 3 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+9
54.1%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
54.4%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
54.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Christian TurnerSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
55.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 24 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:5745% → 45%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
55.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 17 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
54.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-3
54.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 44Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+15
55.6%
Leary, Devin pass incomplete to Rooks, Porter, PENALTY WAKEFOREST pass interference 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
54.8%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+6
54.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
54.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
54.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 12
OPP 32
+3
54.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 3 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
55.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q1 2:33
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
55.2%
Christopher Dunn 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:5656% → 63%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.6%
Justice Ellison run for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
56.4%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
56.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
56.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
55.4%
Sam Hartman run for 15 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
57.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 13 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
57.6%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
57.8%
Justice Ellison run for no gain to the NCSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-5
57.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+34
57.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Ke'Shawn Williams for 34 yds to the NCSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.5%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:3138% → 36%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
61.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 12 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
61.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 11 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
61.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 1 yd to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
61.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
-7
61.7%
Devin Leary sacked by Rondell Bothroyd and Jasheen Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
64.5%
Trenton Gill punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4763% → 62%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
62.8%
Christian Turner run for 7 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
63.1%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OWN 20
-5
62.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
62.8%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+51
62.2%
Ivan Mora punt for 51 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:3435% → 36%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
64.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 10 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
64.3%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
64.5%
Devin Leary pass intercepted J.J. Roberts return for no gain to the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:1467% → 67%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
66.7%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-20
67.0%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Shyheim Battle return for 5 yds to the NCSt 41 NC STATE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:1834% → 32%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
66.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to C.J. RileySimilar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
66.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
67.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 7:37
4TH & 10
OWN 26
-5
67.7%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 21Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 15
OWN 21
0
67.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 52 yds, downed at the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:5766% → 65%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
65.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 10 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
66.5%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
66.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
65.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
64.6%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4533% → 32%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
67.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 4 yds to the NCSt 19Similar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+11
67.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
67.0%
Keyon Lesane run for 6 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 36
0
66.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
67.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Christopher ToudleSimilar
Q2 4:35
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
68.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 1:3968% → 68%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
67.5%
Justice Ellison run for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
67.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+12
67.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 12 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+22
69.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 22 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
71.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry, broken up by Shyheim BattleSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
71.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
70.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 10
OPP 35
+53
68.3%
Nick Sciba 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:3432% → 33%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+47
67.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 13 yds Devin Carter fumbled, recovered by WFrst Traveon Redd , return for 47 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
81.6%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
63.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 28 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:4670% → 69%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.8%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
69.7%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-11
70.2%
Sam Hartman sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
69.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 0:2129% → 46%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
70.8%
Devin Leary run for 12 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
68.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 2 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+7
68.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 7 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+16
67.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 16 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
53.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 21 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21END OF HALF
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:1963% → 67%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
63.4%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 0:12
1ST & 5
OPP 44
+13
63.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Blake Whiteheart for 13 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
64.9%
Christian Turner run for 4 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+45
66.9%
Nick Sciba 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:3550% → 68%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete, broken up by Davin VannSimilar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
49.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 14:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
48.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 11 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
50.4%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+26
51.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
54.3%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
54.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
52.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+26
49.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 26 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
53.9%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
53.9%
Justice Ellison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 5Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
67.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 5 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0537% → 36%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
62.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 23Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
64.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 8 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
64.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5565% → 64%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
65.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
65.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. PerrySimilar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+9
64.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
64.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:3237% → 37%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
63.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 16 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
61.0%
Devin Leary sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 34 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCStSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+9
64.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Jordan Houston for 9 yds to the NCSt 43Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
62.6%
Devin Leary pass intercepted Nick Andersen return for no gain to the WFrst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
66.7%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted Tyler Baker-Williams return for no gain to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:1037% → 38%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
63.0%
Leary, Devin pass complete to Lesane, Keyon for 12 yards to the NCSTATE43, PENALTY NCSTATE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the NCSTATE26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 15
OWN 26
-1
64.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+27
65.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 27 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
59.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
59.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 18 yds to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
57.3%
Keyon Lesane run for 4 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-1
57.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 16Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
59.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+33
62.4%
Christopher Dunn 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29INT
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:3468% → 73%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
68.1%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+23
68.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 8 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, Targeting (Battle, ejected) (15 Yards) to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
71.5%
Hartman, Sam rush for 4 yards to the WAKEFOREST49, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+23
68.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jahmal Banks for 23 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
72.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jahmal BanksSimilar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
70.9%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Banks, Jahmal, PENALTY NCSTATE holding 10 yards to the NCSTATE32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
73.2%
Christian Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
73.1%
Sam Hartman pass intercepted, touchback. Derrek Pitts Jr. return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3034% → 32%
Q3 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
65.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
66.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 11 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
64.4%
NC STATE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+7
65.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 7 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
64.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
65.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 13:34
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+35
67.6%
Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds , Taylor Morin returns for 35 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 31TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:2574% → 90%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
73.7%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+19
73.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to A.T. Perry for 19 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
74.3%
Sam Hartman run for 6 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+2
74.4%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+7
73.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 7 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
74.8%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
75.0%
Justice Ellison run for 1 yd to the NCSt 4Similar
Q4 10:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Justice Ellison for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 32TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:5215% → 43%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
50
+11
85.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 11 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
86.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+16
87.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 16 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
85.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 10 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.4%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
57.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds for a TD (Devin Leary pass to Emeka Emezie for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 33TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1871% → 96%
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
71.0%
Christian Turner run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
71.1%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
69.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Donald Stewart for 12 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.5%
Christian Turner run for 1 yd to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
74.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to A.T. Perry, broken up by Devan BoykinSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+14
72.7%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Taylor Morin for 14 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
77.3%
Sam Hartman sacked by Ibrahim Kante for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
76.2%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+15
74.7%
Hartman, Sam pass incomplete to Perry, A.T., PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference 15 yards to the NCSTATE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
80.0%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+9
83.3%
Sam Hartman run for 9 yds to the NCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
84.2%
Justice Ellison run for 6 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+8
87.9%
Justice Ellison run for 8 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.8%
Justice Ellison run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 34TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 0:586% → 34%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
94.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 20 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
93.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 6 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
92.5%
Devin Leary pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
92.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 3 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+5
93.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
94.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 23 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
93.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas, broken up by Evan SlocumSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+10
93.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
65.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 35END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:0694% → 93%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
94.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-3
94.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 16
50
-2
93.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:07
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 13 yds for a TD (Devin Leary pass to Emeka Emezie for Two-Point Conversion)
-28.4
TD · Q4 0:45
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 8 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-27.6
TD · Q3 14:47
Ivan Mora kickoff for 65 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 100 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com