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USF

South Florida 0 at NC State 45

NCSU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2021 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:03 · Trenton Gill punt for 33 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+20.4Home team on offense+22.1Score differential+15.1Blowout margin−0.5Garbage-time factor+6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 2:14: Christopher Dunn 34 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +0.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:39: Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +4.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:48: Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:00: Zonovan Knight run for 25 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST down — NCSU win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:30: Zonovan Knight run for 46 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:02USF 4th & 18 at USF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:38USF 4th & 9 at USF 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:11NCSU 4th & 2 at USF 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:02USF 4th & 5 at USF 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:14NCSU 4th & 5 at USF 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    86.0%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:03USF 4th & 3 at USF 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:15USF 4th & 10 at USF 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:59USF 4th & 17 at NCSU 42, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:25NCSU 4th & 15 at NCSU 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:10USF 4th & 2 at USF 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:03NCSU 4th & 5 at USF 39, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    96.1%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:01USF 4th & 1 at USF 15, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:30NCSU 4th & 2 at USF 46, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.7
    23% to make
    Punt
    96.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:42USF 4th & 4 at NCSU 4, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:36NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:39NCSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:48NCSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:30NCSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:53NCSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:14NCSU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5812% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
88.1%
Darrian Felix run for 16 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
88.1%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
88.1%
Cade Fortin run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+6
88.1%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 6 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
87.6%
Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ricky Person Jr. at the NCSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2688% → 88%
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
87.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+3
87.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
87.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
87.6%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+15
87.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 15 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
87.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q1 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
87.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+11
87.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 11 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
87.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 33 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5313% → 13%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
87.4%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 1 yd to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
87.5%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
87.6%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
87.5%
Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2788% → 87%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
87.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
87.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
87.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 7:21
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+5
87.1%
Gill,Trenton punt 23 yards to the USF26, out of bounds PENALTY USF Offside (Cucci,Michael) 5 yards from USF49 to USF44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
87.2%
Ben Finley punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0913% → 13%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
87.2%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+5
87.2%
Cade Fortin run for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 5
OWN 11
0
87.3%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Sean AtkinsSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 11
0
87.3%
Andrew Stokes punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:4887% → 87%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
87.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
87.4%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
87.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
87.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+6
87.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
87.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+2
87.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
87.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q1 2:14
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
86.8%
Christopher Dunn 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7Uncategorized
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:1113% → 13%
Q1 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.8%
Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 0:03
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
86.8%
Andrew Stokes punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:2187% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
86.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
86.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 4 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+32
86.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 32 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
87.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
87.2%
Leary,Devin pass complete to Knight,Zonovan for 0 yards to the USF31 (Grier,Antonio) PENALTY USF Personal Foul 15 yards from USF31 to USF16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
87.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
91.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:159% → 9%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
90.6%
Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
90.8%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+5
90.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Darrian Felix for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 11:15
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
91.1%
Andrew Stokes punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10INT
3 plays · 36 yds · 0:4992% → 92%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
91.8%
Leary,Devin pass incomplete to Emezie,Emeka PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Evans,Daquan) 15 yards from NCS20 to NCS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
91.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 21 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.3%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 5:279% → 9%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
90.8%
Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+11
90.5%
Timmy McClain run for 11 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.5%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+6
90.4%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 40
0
90.4%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the NCSt 40Similar
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
90.2%
Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 16
OPP 41
+7
90.9%
Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+8
89.7%
Timmy McClain run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 17
OPP 42
0
90.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3492% → 91%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
91.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+26
91.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 26 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
92.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-7
92.1%
Devin Leary sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
91.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
91.4%
Trenton Gill punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:159% → 8%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
91.5%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
91.7%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+8
91.8%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Darrian Felix for 8 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
91.9%
Andrew Stokes punt for 61 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14TD
4 plays · 77 yds · 0:2293% → 97%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
93.1%
Leary,Devin pass complete to Person,Ricky for 0 yards to the NCS23 (Mims,Andrew), out of bounds PENALTY USF UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Green,Blake) 15 yards from NCS23 to NCS38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+51
93.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 51 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
93.5%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
96.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15INT
7 plays · 60 yds · 0:314% → 5%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
95.6%
NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+44
95.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 44 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
94.6%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Latrell WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
94.7%
Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
95.1%
Timmy McClain pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+25
96.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 25 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:4996% → 96%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
96.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
96.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 14 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.4%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
96.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+5
96.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 5 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 13:03
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
96.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:024% → 3%
Q3 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
96.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 5Similar
Q3 13:03
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+9
96.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+1
96.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 1 yd to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
97.0%
Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:3197% → 99%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
97.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
96.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Christopher ToudleSimilar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+46
99.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 46 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20INT
7 plays · 52 yds · 3:061% → 1%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+29
99.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 29 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
99.4%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 31 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.3%
Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
99.3%
Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 4 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q3 6:24
3RD & 19
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Timmy McClain pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
99.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
99.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+4
99.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
50
+39
99.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 39 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
99.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
99.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 7 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22INT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
99.8%
Darrian Felix run for no gain to the SFla 3Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+10
99.8%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 10 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
99.8%
Cade Fortin run for 11 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.8%
Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 2:48
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Omarion DollisonSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Yusuf TerrySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Cade Fortin pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:30100% → 100%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+1
99.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+12
99.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 12 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
99.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 12 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.8%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+4
99.8%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Julian Gray for 10 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.8%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Smith,Anthony) 5 yards from USF08 to USF13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
99.8%
Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the SFla 9Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
99.8%
Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jordan Houston run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24DOWNS
17 plays · 71 yds · 7:320% → 0%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Omarion Dollison run for 4 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+17
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 17 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
50
+20
99.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Brian Battie for 20 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+10
99.9%
Kelley Joiner run for 10 yds to the NCSt 24Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
100.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
100.0%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 2 yds to the NCSt 17Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+4
100.0%
Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
100.0%
Cade Fortin run for 6 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
100.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Chris CarterSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
100.0%
Cade Fortin run for 3 yds to the NCSt 4Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier WeaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
100.0%
Delbert Mimms III run for 9 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:39
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 0:48
Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q3 9:30
Zonovan Knight run for 46 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com