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NCSU

NC State 28 at Florida State 14

FSU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadNCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreNCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:45 · Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Pregame prior−6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:11: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 8 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +13.7 pts (now 40%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:46: Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 45 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:29: Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 36%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:07: Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent Pennix — NCSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:53: Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 43 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +12.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 13NCSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:25FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45NCSU 4th & 5 at FSU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:53FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:16FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:50NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 15, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:42NCSU 4th & 10 at FSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:47FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:25FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.1%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:55FSU 4th & 30 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:27NCSU 4th & 7 at NCSU 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:27FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 17, down 14
    Close callPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 3 at NCSU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    76.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:29FSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%−2.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−8.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:15NCSU 4th & 9 at NCSU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:48FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−5.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:33NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−3.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:19FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 35, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−2.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:21NCSU 4th & 21 at NCSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−5.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:11FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    23.4%−1.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:25FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:26NCSU 4th & 4 at FSU 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%−0.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:38FSU 4th & 8 at NCSU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NCSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:43NCSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:00NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:11FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:46NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:29FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:53NCSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:2843% → 43%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
42.6%
Ja'Khi Douglas run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+1
42.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 1 yd to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
43.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:4057% → 56%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
43.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
42.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+1
42.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
42.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
42.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
42.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
43.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4644% → 44%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
43.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
43.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
43.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
43.7%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
41.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 62 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1342% → 42%
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
42.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
41.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
41.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0458% → 58%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
41.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 8Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+7
41.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 3
OWN 15
0
41.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
42.0%
Trenton Gill punt for 58 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for no gain to the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3242% → 41%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
41.8%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
41.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q1 6:07
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
41.3%
McKenzie Milton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0460% → 59%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
40.5%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+5
40.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+2
40.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 5
OPP 38
-5
40.7%
PENALTY NCS Delay Of Game 5 yards from FSU38 to FSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
40.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:3541% → 40%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
41.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+18
41.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 18 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
41.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 5 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
41.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+3
40.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
40.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:3660% → 68%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
39.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 36 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
38.7%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+4
38.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+16
38.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 16 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
38.1%
Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
32.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 8 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 3:4734% → 31%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
33.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Treshaun WardSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
32.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
32.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+35
32.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 35 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
34.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
33.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 14
OPP 34
-11
32.2%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the NCSt 45Similar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 25
OPP 45
-5
31.3%
PENALTY FSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from NCS45 to NCS50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 30
50
0
31.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12PUNT
16 plays · 45 yds · 6:2470% → 74%
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
30.3%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Riley,C.J.) 3 yards from NCS06 to NCS03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+5
30.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+9
30.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 9 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
29.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 20Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
29.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 6 yds to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+3
28.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-7
28.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 8 yds to the NCSt 37 NC STATE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Ikem Ekwonu) to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 17
OWN 22
+13
28.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 13 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-5
27.5%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Gibson,Grant) 5 yards from NCS35 to NCS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+11
27.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 11 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
26.0%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 41Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
26.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 5 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+2
25.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 2:27
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
26.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4526% → 25%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
25.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+2
25.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 17
0
25.1%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OWN 17
0
25.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14INT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1977% → 80%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
22.9%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
22.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+5
22.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 5 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
20.2%
Devin Leary pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3627% → 40%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
27.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 11 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+23
27.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 23 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
27.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
27.7%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the NCSt 13Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+6
26.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
26.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the NCSt 8Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
26.3%
(12:17) Milton,McKenzie pass incomplete to Daniel,Preston PENALTY FSU Illegal Formation offsetting NCS Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
40.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 8 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1868% → 82%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
32.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 4 yds to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
31.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 7 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
30.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
50
+5
30.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+45
17.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 45 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1121% → 36%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.1%
(09:46) Milton,McKenzie pass incomplete to Parchment,Andrew PENALTY NCS Pass Interference (White,Aydan) 15 yards from FSU25 to FSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
22.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+9
22.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 9 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
23.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 13 yds to the NCSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
23.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 10 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
23.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
23.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
22.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
22.2%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
36.0%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5769% → 67%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
30.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
31.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 1 yd to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+17
31.6%
Devin Leary pass incomplete pass complete to for 17 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+3
32.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 48 yds , Keyshawn Helton returns for 3 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:2034% → 30%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
34.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
33.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-16
32.7%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Davin Vann for a loss of 16 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 22
OWN 18
0
30.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 3:0273% → 70%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
26.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+16
26.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 16 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
25.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
24.9%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-5
26.5%
(01:28) PENALTY NCS False Start (Eason,Derrick) 5 yards from FSU37 to FSU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 12
OPP 42
-9
26.8%
Devin Leary sacked by Malcolm Ray for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 21
OWN 49
0
29.8%
Trenton Gill punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:0431% → 31%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
30.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+7
31.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 7 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
31.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
33.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
32.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
30.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:4674% → 76%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
26.1%
Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 25Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
24.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
25.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
24.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
50
-5
21.9%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Eason,Derrick) 5 yards from FSU50 to NCS45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 15
OWN 45
-4
23.3%
Devin Leary sacked by Keir Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 19
OWN 41
0
23.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer ThomasSimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 19
OWN 41
0
24.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
23.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 60 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:0627% → 27%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
26.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
26.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+15
25.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 15 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
27.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 10 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
27.4%
(08:59) Milton,McKenzie pass incomplete to Helton,Keyshawn PENALTY NCS Holding (Pierre-Louis,Joshua) 10 yards from FSU27 to FSU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
27.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
30.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Darion WilliamsonSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
28.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Treshaun WardSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
26.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:1483% → 95%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
17.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
17.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+43
4.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 43 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:207% → 7%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
7.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
7.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 58 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 26PUNT
13 plays · 43 yds · 3:5995% → 98%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
4.8%
NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+11
4.5%
Zonovan Knight run for 11 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
4.2%
Devin Leary run for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 41Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
3.3%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Dylan ParhamSimilar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+13
3.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 13 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
2.5%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
2.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+4
2.4%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 3:26
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
2.3%
Trenton Gill punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ontaria Wilson at the FlaSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
1.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+8
1.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+28
1.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Young for 28 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-6
1.4%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Ibrahim Kante for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 16
OWN 43
0
1.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q4 1:48
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+8
1.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Young for 8 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+3
1.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Young for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -12 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
1.5%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-4
1.5%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 44
-4
1.5%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:29
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+13.9
TD · Q3 12:11
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 8 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q4 7:53
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 43 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
-12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com