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LOU

Louisville 13 at NC State 28

NCSU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:54 · Trenton Gill punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 19 , Jordan Watkins returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+6.2Home team on offense−2.8Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 11:15: James Turner 42 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +2.9 pts (now 46%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:26: Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 29 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +25.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:51: James Turner 31 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +5.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 5:53: Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 93%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:21: Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 10 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK) — NCSU win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:47NCSU 4th & 1 at LOU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:09LOU 4th & 6 at NCSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:24NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:12NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:12NCSU 4th & 10 at NCSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:38LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 32, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:57NCSU 4th & 5 at LOU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:27LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:52NCSU 4th & 2 at NCSU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:15LOU 4th & 9 at NCSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−7.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:54NCSU 4th & 11 at NCSU 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−3.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:44LOU 4th & 3 at NCSU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−3.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:56NCSU 4th & 6 at NCSU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:03LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−3.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:51LOU 4th & 9 at NCSU 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−12.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:40LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.9%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:29LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q4 14:26NCSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 5:53NCSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 2:21NCSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCSUDrive 1DOWNS
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:1366% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
65.7%
Leary,Devin pass incomplete to Emezie,Emeka PENALTY LOU Holding (Dallas,Marvin) 10 yards from NCS25 to NCS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
65.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 7 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+12
65.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 12 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
65.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
65.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Christopher ToudleSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+17
65.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 17 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
65.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
65.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+2
65.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 2 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+1
65.6%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 72 yds · 5:3835% → 36%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
65.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
65.2%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
65.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 7 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
65.2%
Cunningham,Malik rush for 19 yards gain to the NCS47 (Battle,Shyheim; Ingle,Tanner) PENALTY LOU Holding (Brown,Renato) 10 yards from LOU34 to LOU24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+33
65.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 33 yds to the NCSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+35
64.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 35 yds to the NCSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
64.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the NCSt 3Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
64.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 7Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
64.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q1 5:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
64.2%
PENALTY LOU False Start 5 yards from NCS01 to NCS06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
63.7%
James Turner 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:2164% → 64%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
63.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
64.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
63.8%
PENALTY NCS Illegal Snap (Gibson,Grant) 5 yards from NCS31 to NCS26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+7
63.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 7 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+3
63.8%
Devin Leary run for 3 yds to the NCSt 36Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+25
63.7%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 25 yds to the NCSTATE 39 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Brock Travelstead) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
64.8%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
62.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 15
OPP 44
+25
62.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 25 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
64.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 19 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:4238% → 36%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
62.2%
Trevion Cooley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 0:42
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
62.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+76
63.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 76 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3064% → 63%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-7
64.2%
Devin Leary sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 22Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 17
OWN 22
+11
63.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 11 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
63.2%
Trenton Gill punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:4737% → 37%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
63.1%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 12
OWN 13
0
63.1%
Malik Cunningham pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2565% → 63%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.1%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
64.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
64.0%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+7
63.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 45 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 10
OWN 40
+7
63.1%
Trenton Gill punt for 45 yds , Jordan Watkins returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:3437% → 37%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
62.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 4 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+7
63.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 7 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+9
62.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 9 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 1
OWN 32
0
62.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
62.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:4164% → 64%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.9%
Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 28Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
64.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 18 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
65.7%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+4
65.5%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 4 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
65.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
63.9%
Trenton Gill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3039% → 38%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
61.0%
Trevion Cooley run for 5 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+1
60.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
61.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Shai WertsSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
62.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3565% → 64%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
64.8%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin CarterSimilar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
64.2%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+6
63.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 6 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 2
OWN 48
0
63.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12END OF HALF
21 plays · 39 yds · 3:5240% → 45%
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
60.0%
Cunningham,Malik pass complete to Ford,Marshon for 46 yards to the NCS42 (Scott,Jaylon) PENALTY LOU Face Mask (Boone,Adonis) 6 yards from LOU12 to LOU06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 16
OWN 6
0
60.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 3:52
2ND & 16
OWN 6
-9
60.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (-9 Yards) to the Lvile 7Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 19
OWN 3
+8
62.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 15
OWN 7
-4
62.1%
PENALTY LOU False Start (Huggins-Bruce,Ahmari) 4 yards from LOU07 to LOU03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 11
OWN 11
+12
61.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 12 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
59.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
60.0%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+5
60.9%
PENALTY NCS Offside (Vann,Davin) 5 yards from LOU26 to LOU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+5
58.8%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Shai WertsSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
58.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+6
57.9%
Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
57.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Trevion CooleySimilar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+12
58.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 12 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
55.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:4541% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
59.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 39 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
56.0%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-5
54.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 26 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Trevor Reid) to the NCSt 39Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 13
OPP 39
+14
57.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
55.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the NCSt 25Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
55.2%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the NCSt 24Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
56.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
53.6%
James Turner 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:2156% → 53%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
55.8%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 36Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
56.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+4
55.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Derrick Eason for 4 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & 11
OWN 34
+6
52.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 19 , Jordan Watkins returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:1048% → 50%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
51.8%
Trevion Cooley run for 18 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
50.6%
Trevion Cooley run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+14
49.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 14 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
48.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
48.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the NCSt 45Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+7
49.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
49.6%
Malik Cunningham run for no gain to the NCSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4855% → 53%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
55.4%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
55.0%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 4 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
55.7%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter RooksSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
52.7%
Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jordan Watkins at the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5350% → 50%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
49.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez MeltonSimilar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+34
49.8%
Hassan Hall run for 34 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
45.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tyler Harrell pass interceptedSimilar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
45.8%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
48.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Hassan HallSimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
50.3%
Mark Vassett punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 3:3752% → 78%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
52.3%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 20 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
53.6%
Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 37Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
53.3%
PENALTY NCS False Start (Gibson,Grant) 5 yards from NCS37 to NCS32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+3
52.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+16
50.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 16 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
56.3%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+23
53.1%
Devin Leary pass complete to Porter Rooks for 23 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 48
0
53.1%
PENALTY LOU Personal Foul offsetting NCS Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
78.4%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 29 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:3528% → 39%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
72.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 13 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
70.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
68.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+15
69.0%
Cunningham,Malik pass incomplete to Johnson,Josh QB hurried by Jones,Levi PENALTY NCS Roughing The Passer (Jones,Levi) 15 yards from LOU47 to NCS38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+24
68.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Tanner Ingle) to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
66.1%
PENALTY LOU False Start (Harrell,Tyler) 5 yards from NCS14 to NCS19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+3
66.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the NCSt 16Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+5
66.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 11Similar
Q4 14:26
3RD & 7
OPP 11
-2
68.1%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Drake Thomas for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 13Similar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+31
60.6%
James Turner 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5865% → 93%
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.8%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 8 yds to the NCSt 33Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
67.2%
Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
66.3%
Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q4 9:51
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
69.0%
Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the NCSt 46Similar
Q4 9:51
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
67.7%
Devin Leary run for 1 yd to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
68.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 23 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
71.2%
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 18 yds to the Lvile 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
71.2%
Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka EmezieSimilar
Q4 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
92.6%
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0511% → 10%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jalen MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+1
89.9%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 34 yds · 2:1995% → 99%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+17
94.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 17 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
94.5%
Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 18Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+8
95.6%
Trent Pennix run for 8 yds to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+10
98.9%
Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 10 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:523% → 3%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Shai Werts for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 1:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+2
97.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -5 yds · 1:2999% → 99%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.2%
Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
99.2%
run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:26
Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 29 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+25.2
TD · Q4 5:53
Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 12 yds for a TD, (Christopher Dunn KICK)
+21.5
FG · Q4 9:51
James Turner 31 yd FG GOOD
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com