2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreFSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:46 · Sam Howell pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:53: Ontaria Wilson 32 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +11.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:42: Kamari Morales 21 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick) — UNC win probability +17.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
- TD · Q3 7:43: Jordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +17.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:02: Ontaria Wilson 6 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick) — FSU win probability +21.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 2:47: Ty Chandler 2 Yd Run (Josh Downs Pass to Antoine Green for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +10.0 pts (now 13%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q1 10:27UNC 4th & 10 at FSU 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.1% before the snapGo for it86.0%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call86.0%47% to makePunt86.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:29FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 27, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it13.5%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.7%average punt
- Q2 9:43UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snapGo for it80.2%−0.630% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.8%average punt
- Q3 12:55FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it46.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.8%−1.4average punt
- Q3 5:55UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 41, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snapGo for it41.4%−1.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.9%average punt
- Q4 12:46UNC 4th & 5 at FSU 5, down 18Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.9%−<0.133% to convertField goal10.9%92% to makePunt-0.3%−11.2average punt
- Q4 8:12FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 28, up 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.6%−1.3average punt
- Q4 5:34UNC 4th & 9 at FSU 48, down 18Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 2:55UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.5%97% to makeGo for two86.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:29FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.4%97% to makeGo for two18.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:36FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.6%97% to makeGo for two23.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.3%97% to makeGo for two42.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:42UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.4%97% to makeGo for two61.2%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 7:43FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call54.8%97% to makeGo for two54.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:02FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 2:47UNC Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick6.8%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call6.4%−0.445% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNCDrive 1FG12 plays · 41 yds · 4:1787% → 86%
FSUDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:5814% → 14%
Q1 9:29
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
86.1%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD14 plays · 70 yds · 6:1686% → 87%
FSUDrive 4TD16 plays · 59 yds · 7:2615% → 20%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
85.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
85.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 16
OWN 45
+5
85.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 11
50
+3
85.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Treshaun Ward for 3 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+9
84.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
84.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 4 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.3%
Malik McClain 5 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3681% → 80%
Q2 9:43
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
80.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD3 plays · 65 yds · 0:5919% → 25%
UNCDrive 7INT9 plays · 45 yds · 3:2476% → 76%
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
76.4%
Sam Howell pass intercepted, touchback. Jarrian Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3727% → 45%
UNCDrive 9END OF HALF13 plays · 26 yds · 0:4658% → 57%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
58.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+24
57.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-10
59.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5543% → 46%
Q3 12:55
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
54.5%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 40 yds , Josh Downs returns for 4 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD7 plays · 70 yds · 3:0354% → 70%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
50.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 21 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4836% → 59%
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.6%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+59
63.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 44 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
57.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 8 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 1:3544% → 41%
FSUDrive 14TD9 plays · 83 yds · 4:4558% → 90%
Q3 3:25
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+18
36.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 18 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
34.2%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Camren McDonald for 16 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
9.7%
Ontaria Wilson 6 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15DOWNS10 plays · 70 yds · 3:1117% → 11%
FSUDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 4:2892% → 95%
Q4 8:12
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+18
4.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 48 yds , Josh Downs returns for 18 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD13 plays · 58 yds · 5:166% → 13%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
6.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-15
6.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-3
4.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Malik McClain for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
3.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+4
3.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
3.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 10 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.4%
Ty Chandler 2 Yd Run (Josh Downs Pass to Antoine Green for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER8 plays · 5 yds · 2:1093% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:02
Ontaria Wilson 6 Yd pass from Jordan Travis (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
-21.3
TD · Q3 9:42
Kamari Morales 21 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)
+17.2
TD · Q3 7:43
Jordan Travis 1 Yd Run (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)
-17