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UNC

North Carolina 22 at Georgia Tech 45

GT
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:41: Jeff Sims run for 11 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +11.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:53: Jeff Sims run for 1 yd for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction, declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +17.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:39: Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +12.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:50: Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK) — UNC win probability +16.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:19: Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Howell pass to Cayden Baker for Two-Point Conversion) — UNC win probability +8.3 pts (now 11%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:09UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:26GT 4th & 1 at GT 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:18GT 4th & 15 at GT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23UNC 4th & 25 at UNC 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:34GT 4th & 14 at UNC 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:56UNC 4th & 17 at GT 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:53GT 4th & 8 at GT 38, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:45UNC 4th & 1 at GT 49, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.0%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:23UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−3.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:16GT 4th & 12 at GT 35, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:25UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 41, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.8%−2.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:29UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:00GT 4th & 3 at UNC 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.5%−2.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:07GT 4th & 13 at UNC 13, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−4.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:15UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 20, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:23UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:41GT Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:53GT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:39GT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:50UNC Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:52GT Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    94.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:19UNC Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    8.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:13GT Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:3382% → 81%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.1%
Ty Chandler run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
18.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
18.4%
Sam Howell run for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
18.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
18.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
18.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 10
OWN 45
+5
18.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Kyric McGowan returns for 5 yds to the GTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1919% → 20%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
19.1%
Jordan Yates run for 4 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+3
19.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 3 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+2
19.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q1 11:26
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
19.7%
David Shanahan punt blocked by Giovanni BiggersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:5281% → 81%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
19.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 14 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
19.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
18.8%
Sam Howell run for 23 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3619% → 19%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.4%
Jordan Yates run for 1 yd to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
19.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 5 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-11
19.5%
Jordan Yates sacked by Myles Murphy for a loss of 11 yards to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+7
19.4%
David Shanahan punt for 53 yds to the NCaro 27, Josh Downs returns for 7 yds to the NCaro 34 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ja'Qurious Conley) to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:2780% → 79%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
19.6%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+14
19.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 14 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
19.5%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+7
19.5%
Ty Chandler run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
19.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Quez Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-2
19.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-12
20.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 25
OWN 33
0
20.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:3721% → 25%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
20.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 29 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
21.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+9
22.0%
Jordan Yates run for 9 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
22.2%
Yates, Jordan pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Conley, Ja'Qurious) 15 yards to the UNC24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
22.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+13
22.5%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kalani Norris for 13 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
22.7%
Yates, Jordan pass incomplete to Gibbs, Jahmyr, PENALTY GATECH holding (Williams, Jordan) 10 yards to the UNC20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
-4
22.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 24
0
22.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 24
+8
22.1%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 8 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
24.7%
Brent Cimaglia 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.3%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to NCaro 33, Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Jordan Domineck, recovered by GTech Quez Jackson , return for 23 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8FG
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:1626% → 25%
Q2 13:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
26.4%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.4%
Jordan Yates pass incomplete to Kalani NorrisSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
25.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Devin Cochran) to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
24.9%
Jordan Yates pass incomplete to Kalani NorrisSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
25.4%
Brent Cimaglia 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:1975% → 73%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
25.2%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
25.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 12 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
25.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 36 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
23.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Khafre BrownSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-13
24.4%
Sam Howell sacked by Ja'Quon Griffin for a loss of 13 yards to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 23
OPP 42
+11
26.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 11 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 12
OPP 31
-5
27.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Ed Montilus) to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 17
OPP 36
+53
27.3%
Grayson Atkins 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0328% → 28%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
28.4%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Devin Cochran) to the GTech 31Similar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+5
27.9%
Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.3%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
28.4%
Jordan Yates pass incomplete to Dylan LeonardSimilar
Q2 8:53
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
27.6%
David Shanahan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11FUMBLE
11 plays · 29 yds · 5:0773% → 73%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.2%
Ty Chandler run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
26.8%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
26.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
26.4%
Ty Chandler run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+11
27.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Charlie Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ja'Quon Griffin) to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
26.1%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
26.1%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 1
OPP 49
0
26.1%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the GTech 49Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
27.8%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
26.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+37
26.6%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the GTech 46, Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Djimon Brooks, recovered by GTech Demetrius Knight II , return for 37 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:2935% → 46%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
34.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+5
34.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jonathan Adorno) to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
46.4%
Jeff Sims run for 11 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 5 yds · 1:4559% → 52%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
41.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
40.5%
Ty Chandler run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
40.8%
Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
41.1%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC holding (Anderson, Brian) 10 yards to the UNC22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+16
42.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 16 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-4
39.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-8
46.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Kyle Kennard and Charlie Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+3
48.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , Kyric McGowan returns for 3 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
46.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2448% → 47%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.5%
Dontae Smith run for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
48.5%
Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
49.4%
Jeff Sims run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 35Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 12
OWN 35
0
48.6%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 12
OWN 35
0
47.6%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q3 13:16
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+11
46.7%
David Shanahan punt for 44 yds , Josh Downs returns for 11 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2554% → 49%
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
45.6%
Ty Chandler run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
43.8%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 1
OWN 41
0
44.6%
Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 41Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-2
51.2%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:2655% → 72%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
55.1%
Jeff Sims pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+38
55.1%
Jeff Sims run for 38 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.3%
Jeff Sims run for 1 yd for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction, declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5129% → 27%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
70.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-9
69.8%
Ty Chandler run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jordan Tucker) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+13
72.5%
Ty Chandler run for 13 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
71.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 8:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
72.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 50 yds , Kyric McGowan returns for 3 yds to the GTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:2175% → 93%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
75.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+16
75.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 16 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
76.5%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Nate McCollum for 11 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
77.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
78.0%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 8 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+28
79.8%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 28 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
80.3%
Jeff Sims run for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.2%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:308% → 25%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+31
91.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 31 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
91.2%
D.J. Jones run for 5 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+21
91.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 21 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
75.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3882% → 98%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.0%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
83.1%
Jeff Sims run for 2 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
83.6%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 12 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
85.5%
Jeff Sims run for 15 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
86.3%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
88.9%
Jeff Sims run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
88.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+8
90.1%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 8 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
98.3%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Malachi Carter for 27 yds for a TD, (Peje' Harris pass to Dylan Leonard for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:063% → 11%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
97.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to D.J. Jones for 8 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-8
97.6%
Sam Howell sacked by Kyle Kennard for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+63
97.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 63 yds to the GTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
97.3%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the GTech 4Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
89.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Howell pass to Cayden Baker for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 6:3393% → 99%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
93.1%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
93.9%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Dontae Smith for 5 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
94.4%
Dontae Smith run for 7 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
94.9%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
95.4%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+6
95.4%
Jeff Sims run for 6 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
96.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+29
96.6%
Jordan Mason run for 29 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
96.7%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
96.9%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
97.2%
Jeff Sims pass complete to Dontae Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
96.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
98.5%
Brent Cimaglia 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24FUMBLE
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:503% → 3%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
96.9%
Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Downs, Josh, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Morales, Kamari) 9 yards to the UNC10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+14
97.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 14 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+16
96.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 16 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
97.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 8 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
96.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+7
97.1%
Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
96.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
97.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Jared Ivey for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 47 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by GTech Charlie Thomas , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25TD
2 plays · 53 yds · 0:0799% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.2%
Dontae Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 7
50
+50
99.8%
Jeff Sims run for 50 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Charlie Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:53
Jeff Sims run for 1 yd for a TD NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction, declined, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q3 3:50
Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 7 yds for a TD, (Grayson Atkins KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q3 5:39
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com