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UNC

North Carolina 41 at Virginia 14

UVA
2024 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2024 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by North Carolina at UNC27 for loss of 3 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:23: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 37 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +2.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:02: Timeout Virginia, clock 04:02 — UNC win probability +4.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:32: Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +22.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:05: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 31 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +13.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:07: Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +12.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:16UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:36UVA 4th & 12 at UNC 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:10UVA 4th & 28 at UVA 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:42UNC 4th & 1 at UVA 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−1.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:04UNC 4th & 14 at UVA 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:41UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 40, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:51UNC 4th & 7 at UVA 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.6%
    86% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−5.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:02UVA 4th & 8 at UNC 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:10UVA 4th & 21 at UVA 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−3.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:40UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 27, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:34UNC 4th & 14 at UVA 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:26UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 38, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:26UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 38, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:42UNC 4th & 1 at UVA 24, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:05UNC 4th & 8 at UVA 8, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:37UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:42UVA 4th & 8 at UNC 30, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:23UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:32UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:05UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:07UNC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:17UNC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:07UVA Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2942% → 42%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
57.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 4 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+4
57.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-5
57.6%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass complete short left to Jones,J.J. caught at UNC40, for 11 yards to the UNC40 (Shine,Kempton) PENALTY UNC Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from UNC29 to UNC24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:29
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
57.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+24
57.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 43 yds , Ethan Davies returns for 24 yds to the UNC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2FG
13 plays · 31 yds · 4:3158% → 58%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
58.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
58.0%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+8
58.1%
Kobe Pace run for 8 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
58.3%
Chris Tyree run for 4 yds to the UNC 22Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
58.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Andre Greene Jr.Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+8
58.2%
Anthony Colandrea run for 8 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
58.5%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Alijah Huzzie for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+17
58.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 17 yds to the UNC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+11
58.8%
run for 11 yds to the UNC 12 fumbled, recovered by UVA Anthony ColandreaSimilar
Q1 8:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
58.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
58.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Andre Greene Jr.Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
58.4%
Will Bettridge 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0641% → 45%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
58.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 11 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
58.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
58.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+12
58.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 12 yds to the UVA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
57.9%
(07:13) No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UVA50 (Jones,Terrell) PENALTY UNC Holding (Green,Trevyon) 10 yards from UVA47 to UNC43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
58.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+19
58.8%
Jacolby Criswell run for 19 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+1
57.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
58.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
55.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 37 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 2:0756% → 54%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
55.7%
PENALTY UVA Delay Of Game (Colandrea,Anthony) 5 yards from UVA35 to UVA30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-13
55.5%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Amare Campbell for a loss of 13 yards to the UVA 17Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 28
OWN 17
+6
55.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 6 yds to the UVA 23Similar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 22
OWN 23
-6
54.7%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 17Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 28
OWN 17
0
54.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UVA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:5846% → 45%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
54.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
54.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UVA 40Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+2
53.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+4
54.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UVA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
53.0%
Nate McCollum run for 9 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+5
53.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
54.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Antavious Lane) declinedSimilar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
55.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:1953% → 52%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
53.0%
Kobe Pace run for 2 yds to the UVA 22Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+11
52.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 11 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
53.0%
Kobe Pace run for 3 yds to the UVA 36Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
53.7%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
53.7%
Kobe Pace run for 1 yd to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
52.2%
Daniel Sparks punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:4346% → 50%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.7%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
53.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 5 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+15
53.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 15 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
52.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+6
51.7%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
50
0
51.4%
Davion Gause run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
50
+24
51.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 24 yds to the UVA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
49.7%
Virginia Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jahmeer Carter) to the UVA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
49.5%
Jacolby Criswell run for 2 yds to the UVA 13Similar
Q2 8:31
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
49.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+1
50.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 1 yd to the UVA 12Similar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
50.0%
Noah Burnette 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:4153% → 57%
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.8%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
52.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Xavier Brown for 9 yds to the UVA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
53.5%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Jahvaree Ritzie for a loss of 6 yards to the UVA 33 Anthony Colandrea fumbled, recovered by UVA Blake Steen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+10
52.3%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun Colandrea,Anthony pass complete short middle to Fields,Malachi caught at UVA46, for 15 yards to the UVA48 (Huzzie,Alijah) PENALTY UNC Holding (Campbell,Amare) 10 yards from UVA33 to UVA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
54.0%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
53.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Tyler NevilleSimilar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
52.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for 11 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
55.1%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 34 yds to the UNC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
55.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
55.4%
Anthony Colandrea run for 2 yds to the UNC 10Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
54.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
57.2%
Will Bettridge 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2247% → 69%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+30
52.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 15 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST down Virginia Penalty, Roughing The Passer (Trey McDonald) to the UVA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
48.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UVA 40Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+25
53.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 25 yds to the UVA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
53.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 12 yds to the UVA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.4%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UVA 3Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:1736% → 32%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Malachi FieldsSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
35.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Tyler NevilleSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
32.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Desmond Evans for a loss of 11 yards to the UVA 14Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
32.3%
Daniel Sparks punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:4671% → 86%
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
29.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 7 yds to the UVA 48Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+6
29.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UVA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
28.0%
Jacolby Criswell run for no gain to the UVA 42Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+9
27.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 9 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
27.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UVA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
27.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
13.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 31 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
23.1%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 5 yards to the UVA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0925% → 23%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Anthony Colandrea run for 5 yds to the UVA 30Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
24.8%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Antavious Lane for a loss of 2 yards to the UVA 28Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
23.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:2780% → 94%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
19.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+17
18.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 17 yds to the UVA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
17.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UVA 8Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+8
5.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:195% → 3%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
4.8%
Xavier Brown run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
4.4%
Xavier Brown run for 2 yds to the UVA 27Similar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
3.9%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 5 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-5
3.7%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Sanker,Jonas) 5 yards from UVA32 to UVA27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
3.4%
Daniel Sparks punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 42 yds · 4:5996% → 98%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-10
3.7%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby rush left for 10 yards gain to the UNC41 (Butler,Kameron) PENALTY UNC Holding (Blaske,Austin) 10 yards from UNC31 to UNC21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+31
3.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 31 yds to the UVA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
3.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
3.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UVA 46Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+17
2.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Chris Culliver for 17 yds to the UVA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
2.3%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass complete short middle to McCollum,Nate caught at UVA34, for 0 yards to the UVA29 (Smith,Kendren; Byrne,Luke) PENALTY UNC Holding (Copenhaver,John) 10 yards from UVA29 to UVA39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 20
OPP 39
+2
2.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UVA 37Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 18
OPP 37
+4
2.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 4 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
2.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Christian HamiltonSimilar
Q3 4:34
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+51
2.3%
Noah Burnette 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17INT TD
10 plays · 51 yds · 4:061% → 1%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
0.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 8 yds to the UVA 41Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
0.8%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 3 yds to the UVA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
0.7%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 5 yds to the UVA 49Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
0.6%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Eli Wood for 6 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
0.6%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 49Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
0.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Gibson for no gain to the UNC 49Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+14
0.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Tyler Neville for 14 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+19
0.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 19 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-84
0.5%
Anthony Colandrea pass intercepted Jahvaree Ritzie return for 84 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 21 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Chris Tyree for 8 yds to the UVA 33Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
0.4%
Kobe Pace run for 5 yds to the UVA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
0.4%
Anthony Colandrea sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 7 yards to the UVA 31Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+7
0.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Malachi Fields for 7 yds to the UVA 38Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
0.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass incomplete to Chris TyreeSimilar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+7
0.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 7 yds to the UVA 45Similar
Q4 13:26
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+8
0.3%
Anthony Colandrea pass complete to Kobe Pace for 8 yds to the UVA 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:3299% → 99%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
0.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UVA 42Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
0.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Chris CulliverSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+9
0.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 9 yds to the UVA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
0.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UVA 29Similar
Q4 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
0.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q4 11:23
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
0.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 5 yds to the UVA 24Similar
Q4 10:42
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
0.8%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UVA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 0:300% → 1%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
0.1%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to JR WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+8
0.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 8 yds to the UVA 32Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+68
1.3%
JR Wilson 68 Yd pass from Tony Muskett (Tony Muskett Pass to Dakota Twitty for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FG
11 plays · 39 yds · 4:4599% → 100%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
1.0%
Davion Gause run for 13 yds to the UVA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
1.0%
Davion Gause run for 3 yds to the UVA 31Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+1
0.8%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UVA 32Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+25
0.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Davion Gause for 25 yds to the UVA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.6%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the UVA 9Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
0.5%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the UVA 7Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
0.4%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UVA 8Similar
Q4 5:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
0.2%
Noah Burnette 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 53 yds · 4:140% → 0%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
0.1%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Noah VaughnSimilar
Q4 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+8
0.1%
Tony Muskett pass complete to TyLyric Coleman for 8 yds to the UVA 25Similar
Q4 4:23
3RD & 2
OWN 25
0
0.1%
Noah Vaughn run for no gain to the UVA 25Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+12
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to TyLyric Coleman for 12 yds to the UVA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Noah Vaughn for 6 yds to the UVA 43Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+13
0.0%
Tony Muskett run for 13 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Dakota Twitty for 4 yds to the UNC 40Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Ethan DaviesSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+8
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 8 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-9
0.0%
Tony Muskett sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 9 yards to the UNC 41Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 19
OPP 41
+11
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass complete to Jaden Gibson for 11 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
0.0%
Tony Muskett pass incomplete to TyLyric ColemanSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
0.0%
Virginia Penalty, (Yards) to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
0.0%
Virginia Penalty, Personal Foul (Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
0.1%
Kneel down by North Carolina at UNC27 for loss of 3 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:32
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-22.6
TD · Q2 0:05
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 31 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-13.3
TD · Q3 12:07
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com