Try the model
WAKE

Wake Forest 24 at North Carolina 31

UNC
2024 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2024 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the WAKE 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Pregame prior+22.0Home team on offense−1.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:20: Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK) — WAKE win probability +13.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:20: Timeout North Carolina, clock 12:20 — UNC win probability +7.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:26: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +10.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:14: Demond Claiborne 7 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick) — WAKE win probability +8.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:15: Taylor Morin 16 Yd pass from Michael Kern (Matthew Dennis Kick) — WAKE win probability +11.7 pts (now 15%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 14:01UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:52WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:52UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 41, tied
    Close callWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:10UNC 4th & 17 at WAKE 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    73.3%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:21WAKE 4th & 6 at UNC 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 1 at WAKE 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−1.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:33WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:45UNC 4th & 8 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:39WAKE 4th & 12 at UNC 37, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    27.5%
    40% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:05WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:41UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:25UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−3.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:30WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:12UNC 4th & 22 at UNC 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−4.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:33WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:40UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WAKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:26UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:20WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:26UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:26UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:15WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5979% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
78.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
78.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-11
78.7%
North Carolina Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jacolby Criswell) to the UNC 21Similar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
78.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0922% → 22%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
78.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 45Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
78.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 3 yds to the WAKE 48Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
78.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Horatio FieldsSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
78.1%
Ivan Mora punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:4278% → 76%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
78.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
78.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Paul Billups IISimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
78.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
78.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+6
78.1%
John Copenhaver run for 6 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
78.3%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 46Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+20
78.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 20 yds to the WAKE 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
78.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 27 yds to the WAKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
78.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the WAKE 3Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
78.4%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Dylan Hazen for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 9Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-8
78.3%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Jasheen Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the WAKE 17Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+34
76.2%
Noah Burnette 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 3:4924% → 26%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
76.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short middle to Greene,Donavon thrown to WAK33 broken up by Huzzie,Alijah, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Huzzie,Alijah) 13 yards from WAK20 to WAK33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
76.6%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds to the WAKE 35Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
76.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 4 yds to the WAKE 39Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+13
76.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 13 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
76.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete deep right to Fields,Horatio thrown to UNC04 PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Allen,Marcus) 15 yards from UNC48 to UNC33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
75.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 6 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+8
75.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Horatio Fields for 8 yds to the UNC 19 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Offside (Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
75.8%
PENALTY WAK False Start (Gordon,DeVonte) 5 yards from UNC19 to UNC24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 15
OPP 24
+2
76.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cameron Hite for 2 yds to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 17
OPP 26
+11
76.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Taylor Morin for 11 yds to the UNC 15Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 15
0
76.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 6
OPP 15
+33
74.0%
Matthew Dennis 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5573% → 77%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
72.8%
Shotgun Hampton,Omarion rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNC26 (Patterson,Davaughn; Hazen,Dylan), out of bounds PENALTY UNC Holding (Sampson,Howard) 10 yards from UNC25 to UNC15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
72.8%
PENALTY WAK Personal Foul (Hazen,Dylan) 15 yards from UNC15 to UNC30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
72.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
73.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+8
73.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
74.1%
Davion Gause run for 7 yds to the WAKE 36Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
74.1%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the WAKE 34Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
72.2%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the WAKE 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+1
71.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the WAKE 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
72.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 26 yds to the WAKE 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
72.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the WAKE 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
72.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the WAKE 4Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.1%
Jacolby Criswell run for 4 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:5325% → 24%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete deep left to Greene,Donavon thrown to UNC30 broken up by Allen,Marcus PENALTY WAK Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Petitbon,Luke) 5 yards from WAK25 to WAK20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
75.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Harry Lodge for 4 yds to the WAKE 24Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
75.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the WAKE 25Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for 1 yd to the WAKE 26Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
76.3%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:4876% → 76%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
76.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 8 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
76.5%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
76.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
76.4%
Davion Gause run for 7 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+3
76.5%
Jacolby Criswell run for 3 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
77.2%
Davion Gause run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 47Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+3
76.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 8
50
0
76.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Jordan ShippSimilar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 8
50
0
75.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8DOWNS
17 plays · 48 yds · 5:0624% → 22%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
76.5%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 1 yard to the WAKE 14Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+22
76.8%
Demond Claiborne run for 22 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
75.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the WAKE 40Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
75.1%
Hank Bachmeier run for no gain to the WAKE 40Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+13
75.7%
Hank Bachmeier run for 13 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
74.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Cameron Hite for 6 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-5
74.2%
PENALTY WAK False Start (Petitbon,Luke) 5 yards from UNC41 to UNC46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-6
74.5%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 6 yards to the WAKE 48Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+17
76.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tate Carney for 17 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
73.7%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
72.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Demond ClaiborneSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 31
-10
73.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Bachmeier,Hank pass incomplete short right to Alexander,Deuce thrown to UNC25 PENALTY WAK Holding (Trost,Keagen) 10 yards from UNC31 to UNC41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+4
75.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Deuce Alexander for 4 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
78.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Deuce AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:3877% → 79%
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
77.3%
Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass incomplete deep right to McCollum,Nate thrown to WAK25 broken up by Slocum,Evan PENALTY UNC Holding (Lampkin,Willie) 10 yards from UNC37 to UNC27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+10
76.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 10 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
77.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 9 yds to the UNC 46Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+12
77.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 12 yds to the WAKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
78.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 5 yds to the WAKE 37Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+22
79.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 22 yds to the WAKE 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
79.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hampton,Omarion rush left for 2 yards gain to the WAK13 (Patterson,Davaughn) PENALTY UNC Holding (Lampkin,Willie) 10 yards from WAK15 to WAK25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+18
79.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 18 yds to the WAKE 7Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+24
79.0%
Noah Burnette 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
83.0%
H. Bachmeier takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4022% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
78.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+28
78.3%
Michael Kern pass complete to Donavon Greene for 28 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
76.3%
Michael Kern pass complete to Demond Claiborne for 11 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
75.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
74.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kern,Michael pass incomplete deep left to Morin,Taylor thrown to UNC05 broken up by Cost,Kaleb PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Cost,Kaleb) 15 yards from UNC30 to UNC15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
74.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Harry Lodge for 4 yds to the UNC 11Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+9
74.9%
Demond Claiborne run for 9 yds to the UNC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
61.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
61.2%
Dennis,Matthew kick attempt failed (H: Mora,Ivan, LS: Cobb,Will) PENALTY UNC Offside (Evans,Desmond). NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5468% → 83%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
68.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 7 yds to the UNC 34Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+38
68.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 38 yds to the WAKE 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
72.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the WAKE 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
72.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the WAKE 15Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
82.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.3%
Tate Carney run for 4 yds to the WAKE 29Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+14
77.5%
Michael Kern pass complete to Donavon Greene for 14 yds to the WAKE 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
76.7%
Tate Carney run for no gain to the WAKE 43Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
77.0%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:0022% → 21%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 8 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
76.2%
Demond Claiborne run for 9 yds to the WAKE 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
76.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 43Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-3
76.7%
Demond Claiborne run for a loss of 3 yards to the WAKE 40Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
78.6%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
79.5%
Ivan Mora punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:4681% → 81%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
80.9%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNC 12Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 13
OWN 12
-5
80.8%
Jacolby Criswell run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 7 Jacolby Criswell fumbled, recovered by WAKE BJ WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
72.3%
Demond Claiborne 7 Yd Run (Matthew Dennis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:3381% → 79%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.0%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 24Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
80.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
79.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 7 yds Omarion Hampton fumbled, recovered by UNC Jacolby CriswellSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
79.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3824% → 25%
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
76.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 47Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
75.4%
Michael Kern pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:3882% → 82%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
81.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 40Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
82.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 7
OWN 40
-1
81.4%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Aiden Hall for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 39Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 8
OWN 39
-5
79.7%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Triplett,Spencer) 5 yards from UNC39 to UNC34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
82.0%
Tom Maginness punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5521% → 19%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.5%
Demond Claiborne run for 3 yds to the WAKE 28Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
79.0%
Michael Kern run for 2 yds to the WAKE 30Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
79.6%
Michael Kern pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
81.4%
Ivan Mora punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1884% → 83%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
84.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 20 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
86.4%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-17
85.9%
Jacolby Criswell run for a loss of 17 yards to the UNC 24 Jacolby Criswell fumbled, recovered by UNCSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 28
OWN 24
+6
83.7%
Jacolby Criswell run for 6 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 22
OWN 30
0
83.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 3:3920% → 18%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
79.7%
Michael Kern pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 7 yds to the WAKE 42Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+4
78.0%
Tate Carney run for 4 yds to the WAKE 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
77.9%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Cameron HiteSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
78.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Micah Mays Jr. for 6 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+4
77.4%
Demond Claiborne run for 4 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
76.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Claiborne,Demond rush left for 3 yards gain to the UNC41 (Cost,Kaleb) PENALTY WAK Illegal Formation declined WAK Face Mask (Mays Jr.,Micah) 15 yards from UNC44 to WAK41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 25
OWN 41
+1
80.3%
Demond Claiborne run for 1 yd to the WAKE 42Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 24
OWN 42
+7
80.6%
Michael Kern pass complete to Cameron Hite for 7 yds to the WAKE 49Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 17
OWN 49
0
80.5%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Micah Mays Jr.Similar
Q4 9:33
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
81.9%
Ivan Mora punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:5388% → 93%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
88.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the UNC 17Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+3
87.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 4 yds to the UNC 24Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
87.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+12
86.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 12 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
88.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
88.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
92.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Taylor Morin at the WAKE 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:3213% → 13%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
87.0%
Demond Claiborne run for 5 yds to the WAKE 20Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-2
87.1%
Michael Kern sacked by Joshua Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the WAKE 18 Michael Kern fumbled, recovered by UNC Travis Shaw , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4294% → 100%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
94.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the WAKE 14Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
94.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the WAKE 11Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+7
93.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the WAKE 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
93.9%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Jones,J.J.) 5 yards from WAK04 to WAK09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
94.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the WAKE 6Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.5%
Omarion Hampton 6 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:112% → 15%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.9%
PENALTY WAK False Start (Fields,Horatio) 5 yards from WAK25 to WAK20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
98.0%
Michael Kern pass complete to Donavon Greene for 6 yds to the WAKE 26Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
97.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the WAKE 33Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
97.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to Donavon Greene for 3 yds to the WAKE 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
97.8%
Michael Kern pass complete to Horatio Fields for 11 yds to the WAKE 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+40
97.8%
Michael Kern pass complete to Taylor Morin for 40 yds to the UNC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
97.2%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Donavon GreeneSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
97.2%
Michael Kern pass incomplete to Taylor MorinSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+12
97.5%
Michael Kern pass complete to Horatio Fields for 12 yds to the UNC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-15
97.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun Kern,Michael pass incomplete short left to Greene,Donavon thrown to UNC00 broken up by Allen,Marcus PENALTY WAK Pass Interference (Greene,Donavon) 15 yards from UNC01 to UNC16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+16
85.4%
Taylor Morin 16 Yd pass from Michael Kern (Matthew Dennis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27END OF GAME
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:1299% → 99%
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
98.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the WAKE 39Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+15
98.5%
Wake Forest Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the WAKE 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
98.5%
J. Criswell takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-1
98.6%
J. Criswell takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:20
Demond Claiborne run for 2 yds for a TD (Matthew Dennis KICK)
-13.6
TD · Q4 1:15
Taylor Morin 16 Yd pass from Michael Kern (Matthew Dennis Kick)
-11.7
TD · Q3 9:26
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com