Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 34 at North Carolina 24

UNC
2024 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2024 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:59 · Tom Maginness punt for 34 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior−5.7Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:41: Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +10.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:42: Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +14.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:58: Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 2 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +13.7 pts (now 70%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:07: Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +21.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:44: Eli Holstein run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK) — PITT win probability +22.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 11 of 12PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36PITT 4th & 6 at UNC 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:59UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:56PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:56UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    48.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 3 at PITT 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−0.3
    62% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:53UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    51.3%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:57UNC 4th & 12 at PITT 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.2%−1.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:34UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:34UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:51PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:01UNC 4th & 6 at PITT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−1.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:01UNC 4th & 6 at PITT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.3%−1.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:21UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:27PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−3.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:08UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−4.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−18.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:01PITT 4th & 9 at UNC 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−4.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:11UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−2.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:44UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:20PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:41PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:42UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:58PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:07UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:44PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:2456% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
43.8%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
43.8%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+1
43.8%
Eli Holstein run for 1 yd to the PITT 43Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+7
43.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+43
43.8%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 43 yds to the UNC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
43.8%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the UNC 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
43.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
44.4%
Ben Sauls 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3745% → 44%
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
44.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
44.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-10
44.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass complete short left to Paysour,Kobe caught at PIT50, for 18 yards to the UNC50, out of bounds at PIT50 PENALTY UNC Holding (Sampson,Howard) 10 yards from UNC32 to UNC22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
44.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 5 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
44.3%
Tom Maginness punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3INT TD
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:1556% → 53%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
44.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 9 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+7
44.2%
Eli Holstein run for 7 yds to the UNC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
44.3%
Eli Holstein run for 6 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+11
44.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 11 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
44.1%
Eli Holstein run for 1 yd to the UNC 26 Eli Holstein fumbled, recovered by PITT Kenny JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+6
44.2%
Desmond Reid run for 6 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-84
46.4%
Kaleb Cost 84 Yd Interception Return (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
47.3%
PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Mills,Grant) 15 yards from UNC35 to UNC20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4353% → 52%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
47.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the PITT 37Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
47.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
47.3%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
48.1%
Caleb Junko punt for 52 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for no gain to the UNC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5DOWNS
19 plays · 81 yds · 9:0347% → 51%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
47.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+9
47.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the UNC 19Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
47.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
47.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 25Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
47.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 8 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
47.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+17
48.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 17 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
48.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the PITT 41Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+4
48.5%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds to the PITT 37Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
48.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the PITT 38Similar
Q1 5:56
4TH & 2
OPP 38
+4
47.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 4 yds to the PITT 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
48.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
51.4%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+3
50.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the PITT 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+10
49.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds to the PITT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
51.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the PITT 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+2
51.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 2 yds to the PITT 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+7
50.8%
Jacolby Criswell run for 7 yds to the PITT 9Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & 2
OPP 9
0
51.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 1:3349% → 57%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
51.2%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+4
50.8%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+72
50.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 72 yds to the UNC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
48.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
43.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 7 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:2346% → 51%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
46.0%
Shotgun Criswell,Jacolby pass complete short left to Jones,J.J. caught at UNC35, for 20 yards to the UNC45 (Lovelace,Braylan) PENALTY UNC Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Blaske,Austin) 5 yards from UNC25 to UNC20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+7
45.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 7 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
46.1%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+20
45.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 20 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
48.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 20 yds to the PITT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
49.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 3 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
49.2%
Jacolby Criswell run for 15 yds to the PITT 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
49.2%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the PITT 17Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 12
OPP 17
0
49.1%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 12
OPP 17
0
48.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
50.9%
Noah Burnette 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1652% → 64%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
47.6%
North Carolina Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Will Hardy) to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
45.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the PITT 47Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
45.7%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+23
46.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 23 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
36.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0040% → 39%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
40.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 40Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
40.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
39.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+8
38.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 44 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 8 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 8
OWN 40
+8
38.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 44 yds , Kenny Johnson returns for 8 yds to the PITT 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4361% → 62%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-6
38.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Holstein,Eli rush right for 9 yards gain to the PIT20 (Echols,Power; Ziglar,Malcolm), out of bounds PENALTY PIT Holding (Baer,Ryan) 6 yards from PIT11 to PIT05. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 16
OWN 5
+1
39.3%
Eli Holstein run for 1 yd to the PITT 6Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+2
39.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 2 yds to the PITT 8Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 13
OWN 8
-4
40.0%
PENALTY PIT False Start (Lee,Censere) 4 yards from PIT08 to PIT04. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 17
OWN 4
+10
40.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 10 yds to the PITT 14Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
38.2%
Caleb Junko punt for 59 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 2:0939% → 57%
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
38.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 11 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
39.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
40.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
38.3%
Jacolby Criswell run for 4 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+23
38.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 23 yds to the PITT 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
41.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 14 yds to the PITT 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
41.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the PITT 13Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+10
42.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the PITT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 47 yds · 0:4251% → 53%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
49.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 13 yds to the PITT 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
48.7%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 4 yds to the PITT 30Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+8
48.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 8 yds to the PITT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
47.2%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 22 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST down Pittsburgh Penalty, Offensive Holding (Desmond Reid) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:5952% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 12 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
52.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+19
51.5%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 19 yds to the PITT 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
55.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
54.8%
Davion Gause run for 4 yds to the PITT 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
54.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
52.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
52.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:0354% → 70%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
46.5%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 46Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
46.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+8
46.7%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
45.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-10
45.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun Holstein,Eli pass complete short middle to Lee,Censere caught at UNC40, for 9 yards to the UNC37 (Campbell,Amare; Echols,Power) PENALTY PIT Holding (Baer,Ryan) 10 yards from UNC46 to PIT44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+9
48.1%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 9 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 11
OPP 47
+46
47.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Konata Mumpfield for 46 yds to the UNC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
44.0%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the UNC 2Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
44.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.3%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for 2 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3735% → 34%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
34.7%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the UNC 26Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
34.7%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
33.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
33.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kenny Johnson at the PITT 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5469% → 66%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.0%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-4
32.6%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Desmond Reid for a loss of 4 yards to the PITT 26Similar
Q3 6:27
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+5
33.7%
Caleb Junko punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 39 , Alijah Huzzie returns for 5 yds to the UNC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:2036% → 60%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
35.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
36.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 10 yds to the PITT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
38.2%
PENALTY UNC False Start (McCollum,Nate) 5 yards from PIT49 to UNC46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+7
35.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
38.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds to the PITT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
38.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
38.3%
Davion Gause run for 15 yds to the PITT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
40.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+12
39.9%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 12 yds to the PITT 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
40.0%
Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the PITT 11Similar
Q3 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
40.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
59.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2349% → 78%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.6%
Desmond Reid run for 4 yds to the PITT 29Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+24
49.7%
Eli Holstein run for 24 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
46.0%
Daniel Carter run for 2 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
46.1%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+20
46.6%
Eli Holstein run for 20 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
44.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Raphael Williams Jr. for 4 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
44.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 5 yds to the UNC 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+8
46.1%
Desmond Reid run for 8 yds to the UNC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
44.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the UNC 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
44.4%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 1 yd to the UNC 3Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.1%
Eli Holstein run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:3630% → 28%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
30.3%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 48 yds to the PITT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
37.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
37.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the PITT 24Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+7
35.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 7 yds to the PITT 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
37.8%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 5 yds to the PITT 12Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+2
37.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the PITT 10Similar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
35.5%
Davion Gause run for 2 yds to the PITT 8Similar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
28.4%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the PITT 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FG
20 plays · 73 yds · 7:0779% → 95%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
21.5%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 6Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+17
21.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 17 yds to the PITT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
21.0%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the PITT 26Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
20.2%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+10
22.0%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Daejon Reynolds for 10 yds to the PITT 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
19.4%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the PITT 38Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
18.5%
Eli Holstein run for 9 yds to the PITT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
18.0%
Desmond Reid run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
50
+9
17.5%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Censere Lee for 9 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
17.3%
Desmond Reid run for 2 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+13
17.4%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Kenny Johnson for 13 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
16.8%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
16.9%
Eli Holstein pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 9 yds to the UNC 21Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
9.1%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the UNC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
8.9%
Desmond Reid run for 1 yd to the UNC 19Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
7.7%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
8.6%
Eli Holstein pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
5.0%
Ben Sauls 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:434% → 4%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
4.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 7 yds to the PITT 47Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+8
4.6%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 8 yds to the PITT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
4.4%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
4.2%
Jacolby Criswell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+8
4.0%
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to Nate McCollum for 8 yds to the PITT 31Similar
Q4 1:11
4TH & 2
OPP 31
-12
3.6%
Jacolby Criswell sacked by Kyle Louis for a loss of 12 yards to the PITT 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 1:1197% → 97%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
3.3%
E. Holstein takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
-1
3.2%
E. Holstein takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:44
Eli Holstein run for 3 yds for a TD (Ben Sauls KICK)
-22.2
TD · Q3 2:07
Jacolby Criswell pass complete to John Copenhaver for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+21
TD · Q2 0:42
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
+14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com