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UNC

North Carolina 38 at Duke 35

DUKE
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kneel down by North Carolina at Duke47 for loss of 2 yards.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:01: Elijah Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +14.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:54: Elijah Green run for 20 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +15.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:12: Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 20 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +26.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 10:12: Jordan Waters run for 38 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +24.7 pts (now 71%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:16: Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 8 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +73.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:18UNC 4th & 16 at DUKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:11DUKE 4th & 2 at UNC 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.2%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    38.1%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−5.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:19UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  4. Q3 11:46DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  5. Q3 6:40DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 2:26DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.9%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:56UNC 4th & 14 at DUKE 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 12:50UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 34, up 3
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:09DUKE 4th & 17 at UNC 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%−5.7
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−12.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 0:45UNC 4th & 5 at DUKE 20, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−12.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:30DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:38UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:16DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:38DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:13UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:01UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:54UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:12DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:12DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:16UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FG
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:4271% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
28.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 53 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
28.6%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+8
28.6%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the Duke 28 Drake Maye fumbled, recovered by NCaro Drake MayeSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 28
0
28.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+45
29.4%
Noah Burnette 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4829% → 33%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
29.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
29.4%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+6
29.5%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
29.5%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Terry Moore for 15 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
29.5%
Terry Moore run for 14 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
29.5%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+15
29.5%
Riley Leonard run for 15 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.1%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:5268% → 69%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Josh DownsSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
32.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
32.2%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+9
31.9%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
31.8%
Caleb Hood run for 11 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
31.8%
Caleb Hood run for 13 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
31.5%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+10
31.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
31.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 2 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
31.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-5
33.2%
(04:43) PENALTY UNC False Start 5 yards from Duke05 to Duke10. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
31.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 10 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4DOWNS
14 plays · 72 yds · 7:2732% → 35%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.7%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
31.8%
Terry Moore run for 17 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
32.7%
Terry Moore run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+21
32.2%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Cedric Gray) to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
33.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 11 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
33.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 3 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+6
35.4%
Riley Leonard run for 6 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
34.7%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
35.4%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+4
35.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
34.7%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 2
OPP 3
0
34.8%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:5266% → 64%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
34.1%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+1
34.2%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+9
34.8%
Drake Maye run for 15 yds to the NCaro 24 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Omarion Hampton) to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 7
OWN 6
+25
34.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 25 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
33.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+10
33.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
32.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
32.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
32.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q2 12:11
4TH & 8
OWN 47
-5
34.0%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Boykins,DeAndre) 5 yards from UNC47 to UNC42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
35.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
6 plays · 88 yds · 3:0334% → 45%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
34.4%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
34.3%
Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+15
33.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 15 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
34.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 13 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-14
36.4%
Riley Leonard sacked by DeAndre Boykins for a loss of 14 yards to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 24
OWN 26
+74
45.0%
Riley Leonard run for 74 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4357% → 57%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
43.4%
PENALTY UNC Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNC25 to UNC20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
43.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
43.9%
Drake Maye run for 16 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
42.8%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33 Drake Maye fumbled, recovered by NCaro Shaka HeywardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:5549% → 64%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
48.9%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 15
OPP 38
+9
48.0%
Riley Leonard run for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
48.9%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
48.9%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+3
51.3%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
51.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 9 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
63.9%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2537% → 54%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+11
61.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 11 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
61.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
62.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 4 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+6
61.3%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+35
59.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 35 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
56.8%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 2
OPP 4
0
56.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
46.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
49.4%
Kneel down by Duke at Duke24 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:1449% → 49%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
48.7%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 14 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
49.9%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-10
49.4%
DUKE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+3
48.2%
Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 32
+9
47.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+2
49.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 47 yds , Josh Downs returns for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:4550% → 68%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
50.4%
Caleb Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+11
49.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 11 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
49.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake sacked for loss of 10 yards to the UNC22 (Carter,DeWayne) PENALTY Duke UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Carter,DeWayne) 15 yards from UNC32 to UNC47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
46.8%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
46.2%
Drake Maye run for 9 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
46.2%
Caleb Hood run for no gain to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+38
46.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 38 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.8%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2138% → 38%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Terry Moore for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
37.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 16 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.1%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
39.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
38.0%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
38.2%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:4664% → 82%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
36.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
36.1%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+5
35.7%
Drake Maye run for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Downs) to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
35.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Green,Elijah rush middle for 16 yards gain to the Duke48 (Pickett,Joshua) PENALTY UNC Holding (Adorno,Jonathan) 10 yards from UNC36 to UNC26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
36.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+7
37.1%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+16
38.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 16 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
33.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 31 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
18.3%
Elijah Green run for 20 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2821% → 20%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
22.6%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
21.6%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
20.0%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16MISSED FG
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3082% → 78%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
18.1%
Elijah Green run for 3 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
18.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-7
18.9%
Drake Maye sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+52
21.8%
Noah Burnette 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
5 plays · 66 yds · 1:4421% → 48%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
20.6%
Jaquez Moore run for 4 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+12
21.4%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Malik Bowen-Sims for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
22.5%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+30
22.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 30 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
48.1%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 20 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:1663% → 62%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
36.8%
PENALTY UNC Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNC27 to UNC22. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+2
37.4%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+7
37.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
37.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+3
38.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds , Jalon Calhoun returns for 3 yds to the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:3841% → 71%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
40.5%
Terry Moore run for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
41.0%
Terry Moore run for 7 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
41.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
40.9%
Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+28
39.8%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Pancol for 28 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
46.3%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Terry MooreSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+38
71.0%
Jordan Waters run for 38 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4036% → 41%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
64.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Elijah Green for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
62.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
61.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 12 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
58.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+7
57.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 7 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
59.3%
Drake Maye sacked by R.J. Oben for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 38 Drake Maye fumbled, recovered by NCaro Dewayne Carter , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21MISSED FG
14 plays · 36 yds · 5:2376% → 88%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
75.9%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
76.8%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+10
74.8%
Riley Leonard run for 10 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
77.7%
Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+11
77.8%
Jordan Waters run for 11 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
78.8%
Jordan Waters run for 14 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
78.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+6
78.7%
Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-5
89.6%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun Waters,Jordan rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNC05 (Evans,Desmond; Biggers,Giovanni) PENALTY Duke Illegal Shift 5 yards from UNC11 to UNC16. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 7
OPP 16
-15
89.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Leonard,Riley pass complete short left to Calhoun,Jalon for 0 yards to the UNC16 PENALTY Duke Personal Foul (Harris, Jr.,Andre) 15 yards from UNC16 to UNC31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 22
OPP 31
+5
88.6%
Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 2:09
4TH & 17
OPP 26
+43
87.7%
Charlie Ham 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 1:5315% → 92%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
85.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
50
+25
80.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Caleb Hood for 10 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Shaka Heyward) to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-9
77.2%
Drake Maye sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 19
OPP 34
+14
80.9%
Drake Maye run for 14 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
79.4%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+11
86.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Josh Downs for 11 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
81.7%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
81.7%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
8.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 8 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23INT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:1418% → 20%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
18.3%
Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Moore for 28 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
22.0%
Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
19.8%
Riley Leonard pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-15
19.8%
DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-15
19.8%
DUKE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
5.4%
Kneel down by North Carolina at Duke47 for loss of 2 yards.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:16
Drake Maye pass complete to Antoine Green for 8 yds for a TD, (Noah Burnette KICK)
-73.5
TD · Q4 14:12
Riley Leonard pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 20 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+26.1
TD · Q4 10:12
Jordan Waters run for 38 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+24.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com