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Oregon 28 at North Carolina 27

UNC
2022 · San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl · Dec 28, 2022 · Petco Park
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · Drake Maye pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:13: Bucky Irving 66 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +6.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:34: Bryson Nesbit 14 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +11.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:26: Kobe Paysour 49 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +22.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:58: Troy Franklin 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +27.7 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 0:19: Chase Cota 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick) — ORE win probability +64.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:30UNC 4th & 21 at UNC 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:25UNC 4th & 1 at ORE 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:36ORE 4th & 9 at UNC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:03UNC 4th & 6 at ORE 28, tied
    Close callWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:49UNC 4th & 10 at ORE 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    29.2%−2.4
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:17ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−3.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:27UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−3.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:36ORE 4th & 7 at UNC 27, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.9%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    41.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−9.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:27UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:42ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:19UNC 4th & 3 at ORE 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.9%−2.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:13UNC 4th & 2 at ORE 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−3.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−15.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:57UNC 4th & 1 at ORE 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−6.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−22.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:29UNC 4th & 13 at ORE 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.5%−5.5
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−17.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:19ORE 4th & 2 at UNC 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    9.5%−9.0
    91% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−11.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:05ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:37UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:13ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:34UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:26UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:58ORE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.1%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:19ORE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−10.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3023% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.0%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 14:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-13
23.3%
Drake Maye sacked by Mase Funa for a loss of 13 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
23.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Delgado at the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:2576% → 77%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
23.6%
Bucky Irving run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-1
23.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Bucky Irving for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+14
24.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 14 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
24.1%
Bucky Irving run for 7 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+23
24.3%
Bucky Irving run for 23 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.4%
Bucky Irving 2 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
15 plays · 44 yds · 6:1924% → 29%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
24.3%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+11
24.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 11 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
24.6%
Green, Elijah rush for 17 yards to the OREGON14, PENALTY UNC holding (Copenhaver, John) 10 yards to the OREGON41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+6
24.4%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 31 Drake Maye fumbled, forced by Jamal Hill, recovered by NCaro John Copenhaver , return for 4 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
24.9%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+7
24.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 7 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+3
24.7%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
25.3%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
25.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+7
25.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
25.7%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
25.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson Nesbit, broken up by Trikweze BridgesSimilar
Q1 4:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
29.0%
Andre Greene Jr. 6 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:5472% → 71%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
27.8%
Jordan James run for 13 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
27.4%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
27.3%
Jordan James run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+10
27.3%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 10 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
27.3%
Bo Nix sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+7
28.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 7 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
28.1%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Chase Cota, broken up by Power EcholsSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
28.9%
Camden Lewis 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5MISSED FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:4730% → 34%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
30.0%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
30.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
30.9%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
31.8%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+20
32.5%
Drake Maye run for 20 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
33.4%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
33.9%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
33.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+11
32.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 11 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-8
34.5%
Drake Maye sacked by Jeffrey Bassa for a loss of 8 yards to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 18
OPP 25
+8
34.3%
D.J. Jones run for 8 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
34.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+34
33.6%
Noah Burnette 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:3668% → 75%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
32.1%
Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
31.4%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
32.0%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+66
25.5%
Bucky Irving 66 Yd Run (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3926% → 39%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.9%
George Pettaway run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
26.2%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
25.9%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
26.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 7 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+5
26.8%
Maye, Drake rush for 4 yards to the UNC49, PENALTY OREGON substitution infraction 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
50
+24
27.5%
Drake Maye run for 24 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
28.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+11
28.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 11 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
28.9%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
29.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
39.1%
Bryson Nesbit 14 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8INT
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:5967% → 70%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
33.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 11 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
32.7%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
31.7%
Bo Nix run for 2 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+25
32.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 25 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
30.5%
Bo Nix run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
30.4%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+6
31.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 6 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
30.3%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-40
30.4%
Bo Nix pass intercepted Power Echols return for 40 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
53.1%
Kobe Paysour 49 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:2249% → 48%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
51.0%
Nix, Bo pass complete to Franklin, Troy for 23 yards to the OREGON48, PENALTY OREGON holding (Ferguson, Terrance) 10 yards to the OREGON15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+10
51.7%
Bucky Irving run for 10 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3649% → 45%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
51.1%
Bucky Irving run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
52.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for no gain to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
54.3%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q3 13:17
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
55.1%
Adam Barry punt for 46 yds, downed at the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5054% → 52%
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
54.4%
Elijah Green run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
54.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari Morales, broken up by Steve Stephens IVSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones, broken up by Brandon DorlusSimilar
Q3 12:27
4TH & 9
OWN 31
-4
52.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds , Kris Hutson returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 6:5147% → 41%
Q3 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
53.4%
Bucky Irving run for 10 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
52.6%
Bucky Irving run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+8
52.9%
Bucky Irving run for 8 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
51.9%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
51.9%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+5
53.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Troy Franklin for 5 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
53.3%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
54.1%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+8
55.0%
Jordan James run for 8 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
53.0%
Bo Nix pass complete to Cam McCormick for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
52.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for no gain to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+1
56.5%
Bo Nix run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 5:36
4TH & 7
OPP 27
0
59.4%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Chase CotaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0966% → 69%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
66.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 8 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 2
OWN 35
0
67.7%
Elijah Green run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+4
66.7%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
69.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 5 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
70.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-2
69.3%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
68.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 57 yds, downed at the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:4535% → 28%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
65.2%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+7
66.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Patrick Herbert for 7 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 1
OWN 10
-2
69.3%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 8Similar
Q3 0:42
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+5
71.6%
Barry, Adam punt 57 yards to the UNC35, downed, PENALTY UNC substitution infraction 5 yards to the OREGON13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
68.8%
Bo Nix pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
69.2%
Bucky Irving run for 5 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
70.7%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Terrance Ferguson, broken up by Cedric GraySimilar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 5
OWN 18
+16
72.2%
Adam Barry punt for 41 yds , George Pettaway returns for 16 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:2980% → 83%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
79.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+3
80.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 36
0
80.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson Nesbit, broken up by Casey RogersSimilar
Q4 13:19
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+16
78.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 16 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
82.3%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+10
83.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 10 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
83.6%
D.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
84.4%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
83.0%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 2Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
83.2%
Noah Burnette 19 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:0617% → 45%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
82.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+15
83.0%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Franklin, Troy (Cavazos, Lejond), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Cavazos, Lejond) 15 yards to the UNC40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+30
82.1%
Bo Nix pass complete to Chase Cota for 30 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
80.3%
Bucky Irving run for 4 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
82.2%
Nix, Bo pass complete to Hutson, Kris for 6 yards to the UNC0, PENALTY OREGON ineligible downfield on pass (Harper II, Marcus) 5 yards to the UNC11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
82.8%
Bo Nix pass complete to Kris Hutson for 5 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
55.0%
Troy Franklin 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:2268% → 91%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
68.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+22
67.4%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jahlil Florence) to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
74.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 13 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
75.9%
Elijah Green run for 7 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+2
76.4%
Elijah Green run for 2 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 4:36
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
76.5%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
78.5%
Drake Maye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
83.1%
Elijah Green run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 13
OPP 27
0
86.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. Jones, broken up by Trikweze BridgesSimilar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 13
OPP 27
0
85.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 13
OPP 27
+44
91.4%
Noah Burnette 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 2:0521% → 85%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
79.2%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+11
75.9%
Bo Nix pass complete to Noah Whittington for 11 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+28
75.5%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 28 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
69.6%
Bo Nix pass complete to Terrance Ferguson for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+15
67.6%
Nix, Bo pass incomplete to Franklin, Troy (Boykins, DeAndre), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Boykins, DeAndre) 15 yards to the UNC14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OREGON.Similar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
67.8%
Bo Nix run for 6 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 8
0
68.0%
Bo Nix pass incomplete to Troy FranklinSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
68.5%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 0:19
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
15.0%
Chase Cota 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:1427% → 25%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
27.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
25.5%
TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY OREGON substitution infraction 4 yards to the UNC47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 6
OWN 47
+12
26.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 12 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
24.7%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:19
Chase Cota 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
-64.5
TD · Q4 6:58
Troy Franklin 6 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Camden Lewis Kick)
-27.7
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-24.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com