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UNC

North Carolina 35 at Georgia State 28

GAST
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Center Parc Stadium
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:41 · Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:58: Kobe Paysour 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +9.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:27: Robert Lewis 49 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick) — GAST win probability +13.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q3 2:04: Robert Lewis 29 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Darren Grainger Pass to Jamari Thrash for Two-Point Conversion) — GAST win probability +25.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:33: Omarion Hampton 58 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +23.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:42: Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +22.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 14UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:50UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:58GAST 4th & 9 at UNC 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:54UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 9, up 4
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:35GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 9:30GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 29, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:09GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:25UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:07GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:26UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:16GAST 4th & 6 at UNC 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.8%
    62% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:19GAST 4th & 9 at UNC 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−7.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:31GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 35, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:31GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 35, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:37UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:06GAST 4th & 7 at UNC 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−1.5
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:44GAST 4th & 2 at UNC 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−3.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:10UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−1.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:10UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 28, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:04GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:04GAST 4th & 6 at GAST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:51GAST 4th & 11 at UNC 46, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    15.2%−1.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:36UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:44UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:58UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:32GAST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:27GAST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:04GAST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:33UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:42UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 14:3371% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
29.4%
(15:00) MAYE, Drake pass to the right incomplete intended for BLACKWELL, Gavin thrown to the UNC30, clock 15:00. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WHITE, Quavian enforced at the spot of the foul for 11 yards to the UNC36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
29.4%
Omarion Hampton run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
29.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 4 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+1
29.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
29.4%
George Pettaway run for no gain to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
29.4%
Drake Maye sacked by Blake Carroll and Jordan Veneziale for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+55
29.7%
Kamari Morales 55 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
29.6%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4070% → 70%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
30.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
30.0%
Drake Maye run for no gain to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+6
30.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 6 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
30.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds , Jamyest Williams returns for no gain to the GeoSt 37 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Targeting on EGBUNA, Obi enforced (Obi Egbuna) to the GeoSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:5230% → 33%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
30.3%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-5
30.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Montavious Cunningham) to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
30.2%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+21
30.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 21 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
30.9%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+6
31.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
31.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+6
31.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
31.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
30.9%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
32.5%
Michael Hayes 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0468% → 66%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
32.5%
George Pettaway run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 5
-3
32.6%
George Pettaway run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 2Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+7
32.9%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
33.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 64 yds, downed at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1933% → 32%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
33.0%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Kris Byrd for 2 yds Kris Byrd fumbled, recovered by GeoStSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-2
33.1%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
32.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+17
32.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 43 yds , Cam'Ron Kelly returns for 17 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5168% → 73%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
31.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
31.9%
D.J. Jones run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+12
32.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 12 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
31.7%
D.J. Jones run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+12
31.4%
D.J. Jones run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
31.4%
D.J. Jones run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-1
31.4%
D.J. Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+8
31.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 8 yds to the GeoSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
27.1%
D.J. Jones 7 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 9:0329% → 28%
Q1 9:30
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
29.1%
punt for 51 yds , Cam'Ron Kelly returns for 10 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
28.4%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 0:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
28.2%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
28.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (LaMarcus Brand) to the GeoSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3528% → 27%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.8%
Darren Grainger run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
27.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
27.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to LaMarcus Brand for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
27.4%
Michael Hayes punt for 57 yds , Cam'Ron Kelly returns for 8 yds to the NCaro 42 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (TEAM) to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:1173% → 84%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
27.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+10
27.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 10 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
26.7%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
26.7%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+17
26.8%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 17 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
25.7%
D.J. Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+19
25.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 19 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
16.2%
Kobe Paysour 28 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2620% → 27%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
20.0%
Darren Grainger run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
20.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.8%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
20.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
50
+8
21.2%
Jamyest Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
21.4%
Jamari Thrash run for 4 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
21.3%
Darren Grainger run for 20 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
22.1%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Ahmon Green for 3 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
21.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+3
20.7%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
27.4%
Kris Byrd 6 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0775% → 74%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.4%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
25.6%
George Pettaway run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
25.8%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
26.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Quavian White at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1825% → 23%
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
24.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 9 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
25.3%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
25.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
25.0%
Darren Grainger run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-6
24.7%
Darren Grainger sacked by Kaimon Rucker and Noah Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
23.3%
Michael Hayes punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:4176% → 75%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
24.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 13 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
24.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
24.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 13
OWN 28
-5
25.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+16
25.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to D.J. Jones for 16 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 2
OWN 39
-8
24.6%
Drake Maye sacked by Jontrey Hunter for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1027% → 25%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
27.0%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+1
27.2%
Jamari Thrash run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-1
26.1%
Darren Grainger run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+44
24.7%
Michael Hayes 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3324% → 39%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.4%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
24.6%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 17 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
25.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+1
26.3%
Darren Grainger run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+49
39.4%
Robert Lewis 49 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Michael Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.9%
Drake Maye pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:0239% → 42%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
38.7%
Darren Grainger run for 12 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
39.9%
Robert Lewis run for 8 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+8
40.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 8 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
41.6%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-5
41.6%
GRAINGER, Darren pass up the middle complete for 14 yards to THRASH, Jamari caught at the UNC11 and advanced to the UNC11 (DUCK, Storm). PENALTY GSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on GLOVER, Travis enforced 5 yards from the UNC25 to the UNC30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+4
41.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 7
OPP 26
-2
39.7%
Darren Grainger sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
42.4%
Michael Hayes 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:1360% → 64%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.0%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+15
38.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Blake Carroll) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
50
+12
36.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kamari Morales for 12 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
36.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 12 yds Kobe Paysour fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jacorey CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3542% → 41%
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
41.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
41.8%
Darren Grainger run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 9:06
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+2
41.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
41.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
41.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:5460% → 56%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
40.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
40.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
40.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 5
OWN 29
-1
40.4%
Drake Maye sacked by Javon Denis and Jeffery Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
43.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 70 yds, downed at the GeoSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 98 yds · 3:3342% → 75%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
41.5%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+10
41.2%
Tucker Gregg run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
42.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+15
42.5%
GRAINGER, Darren pass to the right incomplete intended for LEWIS, Robert thrown to the UNC40. PENALTY UNC Pass Interference on GRIMES, Tony enforced 15 yards to the GSU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
43.4%
Tucker Gregg run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
47.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
46.9%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 9 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
48.1%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
48.1%
Darren Grainger run for 14 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
49.5%
Jamyest Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+29
75.4%
Robert Lewis 29 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Darren Grainger Pass to Jamari Thrash for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3134% → 58%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.4%
Drake Maye run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
66.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 8 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
66.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 8 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
64.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
41.9%
Omarion Hampton 58 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 1:5450% → 52%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
49.8%
Tucker Gregg run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
50.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Travis Glover) to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
49.3%
Tucker Gregg run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
47.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 17 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
53.5%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 3 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (DeAndre Boykins) to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
55.4%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
55.0%
Tucker Gregg run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
54.3%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
52.0%
Michael Hayes punt for 29 yds, downed at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:2453% → 84%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
47.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 12 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
46.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 11 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+47
45.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 47 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
38.6%
MAYE, Drake pass up the middle incomplete intended for JONES, J.J. broken up by BROWN, Bryquice at the GSU5. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on BROWN, Bryquice enforced at the spot of the foul for 15 yards to the GSU7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
38.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 4 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q4 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
38.6%
MAYE, Drake pass up the middle incomplete intended for NESBIT, Bryson thrown to the GSU0. PENALTY GSU Pass Interference on WHITE, Quavian enforced 1 yards to the GSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.5%
Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:5825% → 26%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
24.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
27.7%
Jamyest Williams run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
28.8%
Jamyest Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 3
50
+1
28.5%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
25.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3483% → 83%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
17.5%
Omarion Hampton run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
18.0%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+12
18.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 12 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
17.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, downed at the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
17.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, downed at the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0618% → 16%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
18.4%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Jamari Thrash for 4 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
18.5%
Tucker Gregg run for no gain to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
18.1%
Darren Grainger pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
15.6%
Michael Hayes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cam'Ron Kelly at the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
16.1%
Michael Hayes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cam'Ron Kelly at the NCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:3586% → 88%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
14.1%
D.J. Jones run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+21
12.3%
D.J. Jones run for 21 yds to the NCaro 45 D.J. Jones fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jontrey HunterSimilar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+21
12.3%
D.J. Jones run for 21 yds to the NCaro 45 D.J. Jones fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Jontrey HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:3821% → 19%
Q4 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
20.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Pat Bartlett) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 15
50
+1
18.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 5:29
1ST & 15
50
+1
18.0%
Jamyest Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+4
17.8%
Darren Grainger pass complete to Robert Lewis for 4 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 10
OPP 45
-1
18.3%
Jamyest Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 3:51
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
18.7%
Michael Hayes punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cam'Ron Kelly at the NCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1089% → 92%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
11.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+3
11.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 16Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 5
OWN 16
+5
9.8%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
8.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+3
7.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:04
Robert Lewis 29 Yd pass from Darren Grainger (Darren Grainger Pass to Jamari Thrash for Two-Point Conversion)
+25.9
TD · Q3 0:33
Omarion Hampton 58 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)
-23.1
TD · Q4 10:42
Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)
-22
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com