Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 20 at NC State 39

NCSU
2023 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2023 · Carter-Finley Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · B. Armstrong takes a knee
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:56: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 11 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:15: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — NCSU win probability +18.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:34: Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK) — UNC win probability +14.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Brayden Narveson 24 yd FG GOOD — NCSU win probability +12.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:50: Drake Maye 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +12.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:50UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:35NCSU 4th & 3 at UNC 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.3%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:32NCSU 4th & 23 at UNC 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    45.9%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:54UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:54UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 14, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:57NCSU 4th & 4 at UNC 10, up 20
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%−0.4
    88% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−6.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00NCSU 4th & 6 at UNC 6, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−8.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:28NCSU 4th & 6 at UNC 40, up 26
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:13UNC 4th & 20 at NCSU 49, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:01NCSU 4th & 4 at NCSU 19, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:06NCSU 4th & 14 at NCSU 12, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:42UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 30, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:36NCSU 4th & 12 at UNC 48, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 12:56NCSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:15NCSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:34UNC Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:26NCSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:50UNC Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1063% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
37.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
37.2%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
37.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+11
37.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSU 41 , Jalen Coit returns for 11 yds to the NCSU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2FG
6 plays · 43 yds · 3:1538% → 39%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
37.7%
Kevin Concepcion run for 1 yd to the UNC 42 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Don Chapman) to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+23
37.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 23 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
37.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 4 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+3
37.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 3 yds to the UNC 15Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
37.7%
Brennan Armstrong run for no gain to the UNC 15Similar
Q1 10:35
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
39.4%
Brayden Narveson 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FUMBLE
6 plays · 31 yds · 1:0361% → 60%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
39.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 19 yds to the UNC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
39.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 36Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
39.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
39.4%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Nesbit,Bryson) 5 yards from UNC36 to UNC31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+16
40.2%
Drake Maye run for 16 yds to the UNC 47 Drake Maye fumbled, recovered by UNC Jaylon Scott No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake rush right for 16 yards gain to the UNC47 fumbled by Maye,Drake at UNC42 forced by Boykin,Devan recovered by NCSU Scott,Jaylon at UNC47, End Of Play.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:5440% → 43%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
40.4%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the UNC 46Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+3
40.4%
Kevin Concepcion run for 3 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+26
40.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 26 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
40.6%
Kendrick Raphael run for 10 yds to the UNC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
40.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the UNC 8Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
40.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q1 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+10
42.3%
Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UNC00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:42 PENALTY NCSU Holding (Peak,Jacarrius) 10 yards from UNC08 to UNC18. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 18
+5
41.7%
PENALTY NCSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNC18 to UNC23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
0
41.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q1 5:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 23
+40
43.2%
Brayden Narveson 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:4357% → 56%
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-15
43.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete short right to Walker,Devontez QB hurried by Wilson,Payton PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (White,Aydan) 15 yards from UNC25 to UNC40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
42.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete short left to Walker,Devontez broken up by Kennedy,Robert PENALTY UNC Illegal Shift 5 yards from UNC40 to UNC35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+4
43.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
42.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+6
43.3%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
44.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:5345% → 60%
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
44.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 1 yd to the NCSU 18Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+19
44.8%
Kevin Concepcion run for 19 yds to the NCSU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
45.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
45.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 9 yds to the NCSU 46Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
45.5%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
45.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Anthony Smith for 11 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
48.6%
Kevin Concepcion run for 6 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+6
47.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kendrick Raphael for 6 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+19
47.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 19 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
48.7%
Keyon Lesane run for 11 yds to the UNC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
60.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 11 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:0244% → 42%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 3 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
55.5%
PENALTY UNC False Start (Rolland,Spencer) 5 yards from UNC28 to UNC23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
55.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
56.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
57.6%
Tom Maginness punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 1:3961% → 79%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+43
61.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 43 yds to the UNC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
60.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
60.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the UNC 6Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
78.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1726% → 23%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
74.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 12Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+2
74.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 14Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 7
OWN 14
0
74.5%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
76.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds , Jalen Coit returns for no gain to the NCSU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:5782% → 82%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+17
82.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 17 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
82.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 2 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+21
82.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 21 yds to the UNC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
82.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Porter Rooks for 6 yds to the UNC 10Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
82.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keyon LesaneSimilar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
81.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
82.4%
Brayden Narveson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2321% → 37%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
79.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 30 yds to the NCSU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
77.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 10 yds to the NCSU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
77.1%
Drake Maye run for 15 yds to the NCSU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
76.6%
PENALTY NCSU Offside (Vann,Davin) 5 yards from NCSU20 to NCSU15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+15
62.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12FG
17 plays · 70 yds · 4:2873% → 84%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
72.9%
Kendrick Raphael run for 4 yds to the NCSU 28Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+20
72.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Bradley Rozner for 20 yds to the NCSU 48 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
74.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 7 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
79.3%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+10
78.5%
Delbert Mimms III run for 10 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
79.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Trent PennixSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
79.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the UNC 27Similar
Q2 3:01
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+10
78.8%
Kendrick Raphael run for 10 yds to the UNC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+13
79.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 13 yds to the UNC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
77.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kevin ConcepcionSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
77.8%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the UNC 2Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
72.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 1 yd to the UNC 1Similar
Q2 0:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
71.6%
PENALTY NCSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UNC01 to UNC06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
83.8%
Brayden Narveson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:3485% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.9%
Kevin Concepcion run for 8 yds to the NCSU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
85.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 16 yds to the NCSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.7%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the NCSU 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+13
85.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 13 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
85.7%
Kevin Concepcion run for 19 yds to the UNC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
85.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the UNC 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
85.6%
Kevin Concepcion run for 1 yd to the UNC 20Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+20
96.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dacari Collins for 20 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:363% → 16%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
97.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
96.9%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the NCSU 1Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.5%
Drake Maye 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:0091% → 97%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.7%
Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass complete deep middle to Concepcion,Kevin "KC" for 54 yards to the UNC21 fumbled by Concepcion,Kevin "KC" at UNC28 forced by Echols,Power recovered by UNC Ritzie,Jahvaree at UNC21, End Of Play PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (Atkinson,Beau) 15 yards from NCSU25 to NCSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review.Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
90.7%
Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass complete deep middle to Concepcion,Kevin "KC" for 45 yards to the UNC30 fumbled by Concepcion,Kevin "KC" at UNC30 forced by Echols,Power, out of bounds at UNC21, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (Atkinson,Beau) 15 yards from UNC30 to UNC15, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field has been overturned. The fumble was not clearly recovered (OVERTURNED PLAY: Shotgun #5 B.Armstrong pass complete deep middle to #10 K.Concepcion for 54 yards to the UNC21 fumbled by #10 K.Concepcion at UNC28 forced by #23 P.Echols recovered by UNC #5 J.Ritzie at UNC21, End Of Play PENALTY UNC Roughing The Passer (#12 B.Atkinson) 15 yards from NCSU25 to NCSU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY).Similar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
97.0%
Kevin Concepcion run for 8 yds to the UNC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:102% → 2%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
98.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 23 yds to the UNC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
97.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
50
+8
97.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 8 yds to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
97.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+10
98.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 10 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
97.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 11 yds to the NCSU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
97.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
98.2%
Devontez Walker 21 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:1598% → 99%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.2%
Kendrick Raphael run for 5 yds to the UNC 39Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
98.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jalen Coit for 3 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
98.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the UNC 35Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+5
98.0%
PENALTY NCSU False Start (McKay,Timothy) 5 yards from UNC35 to UNC40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:151% → 1%
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
99.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 16 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 20 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
99.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 3 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+13
99.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 13 yds to the NCSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
99.1%
British Brooks run for 5 yds to the NCSU 44Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 15
OPP 44
0
99.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 15
OPP 44
-15
99.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass complete short right to Walker,Devontez for 18 yards to the NCSU26 (Boykin,Devan; Fitzgerald,Bishop) PENALTY UNC Pass Interference (Nesbit,Bryson) 15 yards from NCSU44 to UNC41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 30
OWN 41
+10
99.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 10 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Tom Maginness punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jalen Coit at the NCSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5999% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.1%
Kevin Concepcion run for no gain to the NCSU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
99.1%
Kendrick Raphael run for 6 yds to the NCSU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
99.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Kendrick RaphaelSimilar
Q4 14:01
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
99.2%
Caden Noonkester punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
99.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 15 yds to the NCSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Omarion HamptonSimilar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 3 yds to the NCSU 40Similar
Q4 14:01
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+8
99.6%
Drake Maye run for 8 yds to the NCSU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
99.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 13 yds to the NCSU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.6%
Drake Maye pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:5799% → 100%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.3%
Kevin Concepcion run for 2 yds to the NCSU 18Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
99.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for 5 yds to the NCSU 23Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+5
99.3%
Shotgun Armstrong,Brennan pass complete short left to Rozner,Bradley for 5 yards to the NCSU28 (Chatman,Armani) PENALTY NCSU Pass Interference (Rooks,Porter) 11 yard from NCSU23 to NCSU12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 14
OWN 12
0
99.3%
Delbert Mimms III run for no gain to the NCSU 12Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
99.5%
Caden Noonkester punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.8%
North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Shift (Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+2
99.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 12
OWN 37
-7
99.8%
Conner Harrell sacked by Red Hibbler for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds for a 1ST down , Jalen Coit returns for no gain to the NCSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 4:06100% → 100%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 3 yds to the NCSU 45Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
99.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 4 yds to the NCSU 49Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
99.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keyon Lesane for 5 yds to the UNC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.6%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the UNC 45Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
99.7%
Delbert Mimms III run for 2 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-5
99.6%
Brennan Armstrong sacked for a loss of 5 yards to the UNC 48Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Caden Noonkester punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Will Hardy at the UNC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24INT
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:430% → 0%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
99.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 5 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+8
99.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 8 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 5 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
British Brooks run for 8 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to British Brooks for 6 yds to the UNC 45Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Drake Maye pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for 1 yd to the NCSU 34Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+10
99.9%
Delbert Mimms III run for 10 yds to the NCSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.9%
B. Armstrong takes a kneeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:15
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Kevin Concepcion for 6 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+18.6
TD · Q2 4:34
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 15 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)
-14
FG · Q2 0:00
Brayden Narveson 24 yd FG GOOD
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com