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MIA

Miami 31 at North Carolina 41

UNC
2023 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2023 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:18 · Tom Maginness punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nyjalik Kelly at the MIA 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 48Home team on offense+2.8Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Pregame prior+3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:17: Jacolby George 35 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick) — MIA win probability +10.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:05: Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +13.2 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:12: Devontez Walker 56 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +11.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:11: Devontez Walker 33 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +11.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:53: Omarion Hampton 4 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick) — UNC win probability +8.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:33MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:18UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:44UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:25MIA 4th & 2 at UNC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.6%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:22MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:55UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:00UNC 4th & 20 at MIA 44, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−3.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−1.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:00MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:54MIA 4th & 10 at UNC 44, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    6.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:01UNC 4th & 3 at MIA 17, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:14MIA 4th & 10 at UNC 13, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:17UNC 4th & 5 at MIA 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:25UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:51MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 6:26UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:26MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:17MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:05UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:12UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:11UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:53UNC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:14MIA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:17MIA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1045% → 45%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
55.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 11 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
55.1%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 3 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
55.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 2 yds to the MIA 46Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
55.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
55.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 42 yds, downed at the UNC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:1155% → 55%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
55.3%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
55.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+10
55.2%
Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the UNC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
55.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 3
OWN 29
0
55.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
55.3%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
55.2%
Tom Maginness punt for 41 yds , Luis Rivera returns for no gain to the MIA 29 North Carolina Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MIA 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3445% → 44%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
55.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
54.9%
Tyler Van Dyke run for no gain to the MIA 48Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-5
55.1%
Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIA 43Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
55.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
55.8%
Dylan Joyce punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 2:4556% → 60%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
55.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 11Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+48
55.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 48 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
56.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 4 yds to the MIA 37Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+11
56.4%
Drake Maye run for 11 yds to the MIA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+16
56.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 16 yds to the MIA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
56.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MIA 8Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 0
OPP 8
-10
57.0%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 18Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 0
OPP 18
0
57.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to John CopenhaverSimilar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 0
OPP 18
+18
59.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 18 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FUMBLE
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:2041% → 42%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
59.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 17Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+15
59.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the MIA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
59.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the MIA 36Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+37
59.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 37 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
58.1%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the UNC 24 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the UNC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
58.2%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds to the UNC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 0
OPP 1
+6
57.9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for no gain to the UNC 6 Henry Parrish Jr. fumbled, recovered by UNC Cedric Gray , return for 6 yds to the UNC 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 16 yds · 3:4061% → 61%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-1
60.5%
Drake Maye sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 5 Drake Maye fumbled, recovered by UNC Kamari Morales , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+8
60.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 8 yds to the UNC 13Similar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+10
60.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 10 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
60.9%
British Brooks run for 5 yds to the UNC 28Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 28
-2
61.3%
Drake Maye sacked by Jared Harrison-Hunte for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 26Similar
Q1 0:49
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-10
60.8%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 16Similar
Q1 0:20
3RD & 17
OWN 16
-8
60.8%
Drake Maye sacked by Kamren Kinchens for a loss of 8 yards to the UNC 8Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 25
OWN 8
+15
60.3%
Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UNC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
61.7%
Drake Maye sacked by K.J. Cloyd for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 22Similar
Q2 14:33
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
61.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
61.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
60.7%
Tom Maginness punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nyjalik Kelly at the MIA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:4439% → 47%
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
61.0%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 7 yds to the MIA 44Similar
Q2 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+11
60.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 11 yds to the UNC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
60.0%
North Carolina Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
59.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UNC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
59.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds to the UNC 18Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
52.8%
Xavier Restrepo 18 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:3257% → 56%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
56.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
57.6%
Drake Maye run for 3 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
57.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 6 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
57.5%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
56.3%
Tom Maginness punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 5:2144% → 59%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
55.7%
Ajay Allen run for 3 yds to the MIA 11Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
55.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+8
56.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 8 yds to the MIA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
55.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MIA 16Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 13
OWN 16
+29
55.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 29 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
52.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Keontra SmithSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
52.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+5
52.6%
Tyler Van Dyke run for 5 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+7
53.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 7 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
51.4%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 5 yds to the UNC 35Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
41.3%
Jacolby George 35 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:5545% → 61%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
44.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 12 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
45.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 14 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
47.3%
Devontez Walker run for 20 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
48.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the MIA 26Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
48.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 5 yds to the MIA 21Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
47.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the MIA 20Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+9
45.4%
Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the MIA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
49.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the MIA 6Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
49.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the MIA 2Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
61.4%
Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3645% → 44%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.6%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
54.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
55.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
56.4%
Dylan Joyce punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:2358% → 57%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
58.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 6 yds to the UNC 30Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
59.2%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
57.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Devontez WalkerSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+36
56.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 41 yds, downed at the MIA 29 North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the MIA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 57 yds · 0:4646% → 56%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
54.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 12 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Jacolby GeorgeSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+24
52.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 24 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
49.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 16 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
49.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
49.1%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UNC 9Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
49.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Henry Parrish Jr. for no gain to the UNC 9Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+28
44.3%
Andres Borregales 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4351% → 65%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
50.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 26Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
50.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 7 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+10
51.0%
Miami Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the UNC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
52.9%
British Brooks run for 1 yd to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+56
64.8%
Devontez Walker 56 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3038% → 40%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.0%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
61.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 8 yds to the MIA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
61.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Colbie Young for 9 yds to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
59.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Jacolby George for 14 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
60.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UNC Myles MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:2468% → 65%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
68.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 11 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
69.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the MIA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
70.0%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
70.0%
Drake Maye sacked by Francisco Mauigoa for a loss of 10 yards to the MIA 44Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 20
OPP 44
0
66.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
64.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 30 yds, downed at the MIA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
65.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted Cedric Gray return for no gain to the MIA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:2771% → 79%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
70.5%
North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 33Similar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 20
OPP 33
0
70.0%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to British BrooksSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 20
OPP 33
0
69.0%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+33
80.1%
Devontez Walker 33 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+15
79.0%
Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:0122% → 19%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
78.3%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 24Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
78.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the MIA 28Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
79.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 5 yards to the MIA 23Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+3
81.3%
Dylan Joyce punt for 43 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for 3 yds to the UNC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:5282% → 95%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-7
82.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 40 North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNC 30Similar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 17
OWN 30
+7
82.0%
British Brooks run for 7 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
82.9%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Nate McCollumSimilar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+30
82.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to John Copenhaver for 30 yds to the MIA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
84.0%
British Brooks run for 4 yds to the MIA 29Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+7
84.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Devontez Walker for 7 yds to the MIA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
84.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 8 yds to the MIA 14Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+10
85.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the MIA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.8%
Omarion Hampton 4 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:378% → 6%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
92.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 3 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
92.7%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 41Similar
Q3 1:43
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+15
92.9%
North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-11
92.8%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Beau Atkinson and Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 11 yards to the MIA 45Similar
Q3 0:51
2ND & 21
OWN 45
+3
93.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 3 yds to the MIA 48Similar
Q3 0:10
3RD & 18
OWN 48
+8
94.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 8 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
94.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:4096% → 99%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
96.2%
Drake Maye run for 12 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
96.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the MIA 40Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+16
96.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 16 yds to the MIA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-8
97.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MIA 22 North Carolina Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 18
OPP 32
+2
97.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the MIA 30Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 16
OPP 30
+15
97.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 15 yds to the MIA 15Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-2
97.3%
British Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 17Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+34
99.0%
Noah Burnette 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
13 plays · 71 yds · 3:372% → 5%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 4 yds to the MIA 33Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
0
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Colbie YoungSimilar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+11
98.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the MIA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
98.6%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Ajay Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 43Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+25
98.7%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Brashard Smith for 25 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the UNC 23Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Tyler HarrellSimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+10
98.6%
Ajay Allen run for 10 yds to the UNC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
98.5%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
98.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Brashard SmithSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+13
94.9%
Xavier Restrepo 13 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24FG
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:4296% → 99%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
96.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 30Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+60
96.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 60 yds to the MIA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
97.2%
Drake Maye run for a loss of 4 yards to the MIA 14Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+9
97.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 9 yds to the MIA 5Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
97.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for no gain to the MIA 5Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
99.2%
Noah Burnette 23 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 0:482% → 5%
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
97.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
97.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 12 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
97.8%
Miami Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 2:17
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+54
94.6%
Brashard Smith 54 Yd pass from Tyler Van Dyke (Andres Borregales Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:4796% → 98%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
96.0%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-1
96.7%
Devontez Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 47Similar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-4
96.6%
Caleb Hood run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 49Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
97.8%
Tom Maginness punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27INT
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:214% → 5%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
96.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 3 yds to the MIA 27Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
96.3%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Ajay Allen for 5 yds to the MIA 32Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
96.2%
Tyler Van Dyke pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 2
OWN 32
+7
96.4%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 7 yds to the MIA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
96.1%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 12 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
95.8%
North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (5 Yards) to the UNC 44Similar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 5
OPP 44
-6
95.3%
Tyler Van Dyke sacked by Kaimon Rucker for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 11
50
+19
96.0%
Tyler Van Dyke pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 19 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
94.8%
Tyler Van Dyke pass intercepted Giovanni Biggers return for 5 yds to the UNC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:05
Omarion Hampton 2 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)
+13.2
TD · Q3 13:12
Devontez Walker 56 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)
+11.9
TD · Q3 8:11
Devontez Walker 33 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Noah Burnette Kick)
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com