Try the model
APP

App State 34 at North Carolina 40

UNC
2023 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2023 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Ryan Coe 39 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:43: Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 33 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK) — APP win probability +15.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:57: Caleb Hood run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK) — UNC win probability +10.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:44: Nate Noel 7 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick) — APP win probability +34.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:19: Omarion Hampton 7 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick) — UNC win probability +30.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:22: Michael Hughes 33 yd FG GOOD — APP win probability +24.7 pts (now 54%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5APP made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:01UNC 4th & 1 at APP 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    87.9%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    87.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01APP 4th & 5 at UNC 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:20UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:22APP 4th & 2 at UNC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:10APP 4th & 7 at UNC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:05UNC 4th & 21 at APP 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    69.7%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:18APP 4th & 10 at UNC 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:25UNC 4th & 12 at APP 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−2.7
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−11.4
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 1 at APP 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.8%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:23APP 4th & 7 at APP 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:10UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−4.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:22APP 4th & 6 at UNC 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−15.0
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    81% to make
    Punt
    9.2%−25.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 10:43UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:14APP Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:43APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:57UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:44APP Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:19UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1DOWNS
15 plays · 61 yds · 3:5991% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
91.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
91.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 8 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
91.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 9 yds to the UNC 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+15
91.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass incomplete deep left to Blackwell,Gavin PENALTY ASU Pass Interference (Funderburk,Tyrek) 15 yards from UNC48 to ASU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kamari MoralesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
91.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 5 yds to the APP 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+10
91.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 10 yds to the APP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
91.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the APP 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
91.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the APP 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
91.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 4 yds to the APP 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
91.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 4 yds to the APP 13Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+1
90.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the APP 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2MISSED FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:0010% → 11%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
90.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 21 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
90.1%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 37Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
90.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 12 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
90.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Nate Noel for 9 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+14
90.0%
Nate Noel run for 24 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST down Appalachian State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Christan Horn) to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
90.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 2 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+3
90.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 11:01
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+3
90.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 3 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
88.7%
Michael Hughes 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4189% → 88%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
88.9%
Elijah Green run for 4 yds to the UNC 33Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+7
89.0%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
89.1%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 2 yds to the UNC 42Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
89.2%
Drake Maye run for 7 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
89.1%
Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
88.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FG
22 plays · 66 yds · 8:1012% → 17%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
88.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+2
88.1%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 3 Nate Noel fumbled, recovered by APP Milan TuckerSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+15
88.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Noel,Nate rush left for 1 yard loss to the ASU02 (Hester Jr.,Kevin) PENALTY UNC Face Mask (Hester Jr.,Kevin) 15 yards from ASU03 to ASU18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
87.9%
Nate Noel run for 7 yds to the APP 25Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+2
87.8%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 23Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+7
88.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 7 yds to the APP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
87.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 3 yds to the APP 33Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
87.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
88.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+10
88.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 10 yds to the APP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
85.3%
Joey Aguilar run for 6 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
85.2%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
85.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+5
85.4%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
84.9%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the UNC 44Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
84.9%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Makai Jackson for 7 yds to the UNC 37Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+5
84.9%
Joey Aguilar run for 5 yds to the UNC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
84.6%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Christan HornSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
84.7%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the UNC 29Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 7
OPP 29
0
85.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 7
OPP 29
+46
83.0%
Michael Hughes 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2783% → 87%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
83.1%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the UNC 32Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
86.7%
Omarion Hampton run for 68 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 6TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2913% → 22%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
86.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 1 yd to the APP 24Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
86.7%
Joey Aguilar run for 13 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
86.2%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dashaun DavisSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
86.3%
Maquel Haywood run for 2 yds to the APP 39Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+10
86.3%
North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Holding (Power Echols) to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
85.5%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 34 yds to the UNC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
84.9%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the UNC 5Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Miller GibbsSimilar
Q2 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
78.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:0980% → 81%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
79.9%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+31
80.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 31 yds to the APP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
81.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+13
82.3%
Caleb Hood run for 13 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
82.2%
North Carolina Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the APP 26Similar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 18
OPP 26
0
82.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for no gain to the APP 26Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 18
OPP 26
-5
81.4%
Drake Maye sacked by Brendan Harrington for a loss of 5 yards to the APP 31Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 23
OPP 31
+2
80.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 2 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 21
OPP 29
+47
80.5%
Ryan Coe 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:4721% → 23%
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.1%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the APP 27Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
79.0%
Joey Aguilar pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
79.8%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 9 yds to the APP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
78.3%
Nate Noel run for 15 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
77.0%
Maquel Haywood run for 5 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-10
76.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun Aguilar,Joey pass incomplete deep right to Stroman,Dalton QB hurried by Evans,Desmond PENALTY ASU Holding (Murphy,Jack) 10 yards from UNC44 to ASU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
78.7%
Maquel Haywood run for 1 yd to the APP 47Similar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+4
79.1%
Maquel Haywood run for 4 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
77.1%
Mitchell Lake punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9END OF HALF
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:1879% → 78%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
79.3%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
79.2%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the UNC 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+7
78.0%
Caleb Hood run for 7 yds to the UNC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 10TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1723% → 40%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 12 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
76.4%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the APP 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
75.2%
Dashaun Davis run for 10 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
74.8%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Eli WilsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+16
75.0%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 16 yds to the UNC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
60.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dashaun Davis for 33 yds for a TD (Michael Hughes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4665% → 79%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
64.8%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
64.4%
Drake Maye pass complete to Omarion Hampton for 10 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
66.9%
Omarion Hampton run for 6 yds to the UNC 47Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+2
67.8%
Omarion Hampton run for 2 yds to the UNC 49Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+4
67.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 4 yds to the APP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.2%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Gavin BlackwellSimilar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+29
67.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 29 yds to the APP 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
69.5%
Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the APP 14Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+9
69.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Bryson Nesbit for 9 yds to the APP 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.4%
Caleb Hood run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 12INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:2329% → 31%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
71.2%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Christan Horn for 10 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
70.2%
Milan Tucker run for 2 yds to the APP 49Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 49
0
71.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Milan TuckerSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 12
OWN 49
+20
72.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 20 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
69.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun Haywood,Maquel rush right for 1 yard loss to the UNC32 (Gray,Cedric) PENALTY ASU Illegal Shift 5 yards from UNC31 to UNC36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 15
OPP 36
0
69.1%
Joey Aguilar pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 5:0175% → 76%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
75.2%
Drake Maye pass complete to Nate McCollum for 8 yds to the UNC 44Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+7
77.0%
Omarion Hampton run for 7 yds to the APP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
77.4%
Drake Maye run for 5 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
77.6%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the APP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
77.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to Andre Greene Jr. for 4 yds to the APP 35Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+13
78.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 13 yds to the APP 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
78.3%
Omarion Hampton run for 11 yds to the APP 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
78.3%
Caleb Hood run for 1 yd to the APP 12Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+1
78.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 1 yd to the APP 13Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 12
OPP 13
0
76.7%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Bryson NesbitSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
75.2%
PENALTY UNC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting ASU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 12
OPP 13
+31
76.0%
Ryan Coe 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:4123% → 64%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.7%
Nate Noel run for 4 yds to the APP 29Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
75.9%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the APP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
75.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Makai JacksonSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
75.7%
Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the APP 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
72.8%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the APP 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+19
74.4%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Miller Gibbs for 19 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
71.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the UNC 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
71.9%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Dalton StromanSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+18
72.6%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Dalton Stroman for 18 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
70.1%
Joey Aguilar run for 1 yd to the UNC 17Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+10
70.1%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Milan Tucker for 10 yds to the UNC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
36.0%
Nate Noel 7 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2550% → 82%
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to Gavin Blackwell for 6 yds to the UNC 31Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
52.2%
Omarion Hampton run for 5 yds to the UNC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+57
51.0%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 57 yds to the APP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
81.8%
Omarion Hampton 7 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5626% → 25%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.8%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the APP 33 Appalachian State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Isaiah Helms) to the APP 16Similar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+6
74.1%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the APP 22Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
74.5%
Maquel Haywood run for 6 yds to the APP 28Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
75.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
75.3%
Mitchell Lake punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:1377% → 80%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
77.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 36Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
78.7%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 5 yds to the UNC 41Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
78.5%
Omarion Hampton run for 3 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
79.4%
Omarion Hampton run for 1 yd to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
78.1%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to Kobe PaysourSimilar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-10
76.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun Maye,Drake pass complete short right to Nesbit,Bryson for 12 yards to the ASU45 (Burks,DJ) PENALTY UNC Holding (Gaynor,Corey) 10 yards from UNC43 to UNC33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 21
OWN 33
+10
75.0%
Drake Maye run for 10 yds to the UNC 43Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
79.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kaedin Robinson at the APP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 2:4828% → 54%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
72.3%
Maquel Haywood run for no gain to the APP 15 Maquel Haywood fumbled, recovered by APP Maquel HaywoodSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
72.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Kaedin Robinson for 13 yds to the APP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
71.1%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
72.3%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+28
73.7%
Joey Aguilar pass complete to Eli Wilson for 13 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST down North Carolina Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Giovanni Biggers) to the UNC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
65.5%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Nate NoelSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
65.8%
Joey Aguilar run for 10 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
63.7%
Nate Noel run for 14 yds to the UNC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
62.8%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the UNC 19Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 19
0
62.7%
Joey Aguilar pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+3
67.6%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the UNC 16Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
46.2%
Michael Hughes 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19MISSED FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 1:2258% → 69%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
58.2%
Drake Maye sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 6 yards to the UNC 19Similar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+18
56.5%
Drake Maye pass complete to J.J. Jones for 18 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
59.7%
Drake Maye run for 12 yds to the UNC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
63.6%
Drake Maye pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+14
62.3%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 14 yds to the APP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
64.6%
Drake Maye pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 6 yds to the APP 31Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 31
0
67.6%
Drake Maye pass incomplete to J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+6
64.8%
Drake Maye run for 6 yds to the APP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
67.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun Hampton,Omarion rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ASU20 (Ross,Nick; Sullivan,Caden) PENALTY ASU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from ASU25 to ASU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 5
OPP 20
-2
67.6%
D. Maye takes a kneeSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+39
69.3%
Ryan Coe 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:44
Nate Noel 7 Yd Run (Michael Hughes Kick)
-34.1
TD · Q4 9:19
Omarion Hampton 7 Yd Run (Ryan Coe Kick)
+30.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+30.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com