Northern Illinois

Profile vs. FBS, 2023

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1352nd
  Defense+0.1050th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.2%50th
  Defense40.7%61st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2227th
  Defense+1.1195th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1257th
  Defense+0.1332nd
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2143rd
  Defense+0.1770th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.7%70th
  Defense48.4%38th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense25.8%19th
  Defense24.3%94th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1658th
  Defense3.2918th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.9%50th
  Defense11.9%6th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense16.0%53rd
  Defense13.9%10th

Percentiles among the 133 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2023

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Illinois allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   BC
2. L
   SIU
3. L
   NEB
4. L
   TLSA
5. L
   TOL
6. W
   AKR
7. W
   OHIO
8. W
   EMU
9. L
   CMU
10. L
    BALL
11. W
    WMU
12. W
    KENT
13. W
    ARST

Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Illinois.

Players, 2023

1. Rocky LombardiQB334 plays · +0.218 pts/play · 62nd of 250 QBs
   1.37WAR0.61 to 2.17
2. Antario BrownRB198 plays · +0.151 pts/play · 13th of 383 RBs
   0.56WAR0.34 to 0.76
3. Grayson BarnesTE28 plays · +0.379 pts/play · 12th of 212 TEs
   0.20WAR0.13 to 0.28
4. Gavin WilliamsRB106 plays · +0.079 pts/play · 176th of 383 RBs
   0.16WAR0.08 to 0.24
5. Trayvon RudolphWR87 plays · +0.073 pts/play · 153rd of 457 WRs
   0.12WAR−0.02 to 0.28
6. Kacper RutkiewiczWR22 plays · +0.199 pts/play · 215th of 457 WRs
   0.08WAR0.04 to 0.13
7. Tom FoleyP45 plays · +0.077 pts/play · 73rd of 103 punters
   0.07WAR0.00 to 0.14
8. Kanon WoodillPK16 plays · +0.199 pts/play · 87th of 113 kickers
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.10

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Northern Illinois's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2023

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  352352120th of 130Roster talent: 352, 120th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  14114191st of 130Recruiting: 141, 91st of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  62%62%48th of 128Returning production: 62%, 48th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −7.5−7.591st of 130SP+ rating: −7.5, 91st of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2023

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Illinois's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.11 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at AKRQ3 1:09 4th & 4 at AKR 34, down 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
2. vs OHIOQ3 2:12 4th & 2 at OHIO 14, up 1Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
3. at CMUQ4 9:50 4th & 14 at CMU 30, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.8 pts
4. at AKRQ4 8:26 4th & 2 at NIU 34, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
5. at KENTQ4 14:03 4th & 3 at KENT 26, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs ARSTQ3 9:05 4th & 3 at ARST 48, up 8Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. at KENTQ4 0:43 4th & 1 at NIU 45, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. vs ARSTQ3 0:55 4th & 4 at ARST 6, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2023

58th of 133 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Northern Illinois's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   BC
2. L

   SIU
3. L

   NEB
4. L

   TLSA
5. L

   TOL
6. W

   AKR
7. W

   OHIO
8. W

   EMU
9. L

   CMU
10. L

    BALL
11. W

    WMU
12. W

    KENT
13. W

    ARST

What moved it, 2023

Every game starts at Northern Illinois's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.71
• Possession & field position+0.05
• Clock−0.25
• Timeouts+0.20
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.30

Game by game

• BCW 27-24 at BC25% → 88%Before kickoff −25 · On the field +63: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +20
• SIUL 11-14 vs SIU73% → 7%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −67: Scoreboard −57, Clock −4
• NEBL 11-35 at NEB23% → 0%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −23: Scoreboard −26, Timeouts −1
• TLSAL 14-22 vs TLSA67% → 3%Before kickoff +17 · On the field −64: Scoreboard −57, Clock −4
• TOLL 33-35 at TOL17% → 14%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −14, Timeouts −2
• AKRW 55-14 at AKR61% → 9%Before kickoff +11 · On the field −52: Scoreboard −40, Timeouts +3
• OHIOW 23-13 vs OHIO32% → 99%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +67: Scoreboard +49, Timeouts +1
• EMUW 20-13 vs EMU79% → 97%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +2
• CMUL 31-37 at CMU64% → 11%Before kickoff +14 · On the field −54: Scoreboard −28, Possession & field position −2
• BALLL 17-20 vs BALL78% → 3%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −75: Scoreboard −56, Clock −2
• WMUW 24-0 vs WMU62% → 100%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +38: Scoreboard +39, Possession & field position +1
• KENTW 37-27 at KENT92% → 97%Before kickoff +42 · On the field +5: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• ARSTW 21-19 vs ARST47% → 95%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +47: Scoreboard +35, Possession & field position +1

Points of win probability, from Northern Illinois's side.

Closest call

NIU 55-14 AKR (2023) - Northern Illinois dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.