Northern Illinois

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2172nd
  Defense+0.1546th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense47.2%83rd
  Defense43.6%37th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1218th
  Defense+1.1859th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1877th
  Defense+0.1428th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3176th
  Defense+0.1855th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense50.4%75th
  Defense47.8%46th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.6%86th
  Defense34.3%38th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1072nd
  Defense3.2313th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.2%76th
  Defense14.2%6th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense1.2%98th
  Defense2.9%88th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Northern Illinois allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   PRES
2. W
   NU
3. W
   UNLV
4. L
   ARK
5. W
   KENT
6. L
   CMU
7. W
   M-OH
8. W
   EMU
9. W
   BALL
10. W
    TOL
11. W
    OHIO
12. W
    WMU
13. W
    BGSU
14. L
    MRSH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Northern Illinois.

Players, 2014

1. Drew HareQB423 plays · +0.235 pts/play · 36th of 199 QBs
   1.86WAR1.17 to 2.51
2. Cameron Stingily?171 plays · +0.135 pts/play
   0.43WAR0.28 to 0.58
3. Da'Ron BrownWR109 plays · +0.133 pts/play · 37th of 469 WRs
   0.27WAR0.11 to 0.43
4. Joel Bouagnon?90 plays · +0.131 pts/play
   0.22WAR0.15 to 0.30
5. Anthony MaddieQB57 plays · +0.195 pts/play · 160th of 199 QBs
   0.21WAR0.11 to 0.32
6. Aregeros TurnerWR60 plays · +0.131 pts/play · 125th of 469 WRs
   0.15WAR0.08 to 0.22
7. Tyler WedelP59 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 25th of 94 punters
   0.13WAR0.04 to 0.22
8. Akeem Daniels?50 plays · +0.121 pts/play
   0.11WAR0.08 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Northern Illinois's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Northern Illinois's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.07 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs MRSHQ2 7:30 4th & 1 at MRSH 1, down 10Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
2. vs TOLQ2 1:36 4th & 2 at TOL 2, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
3. at BGSUQ2 2:37 4th & 2 at BGSU 49, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
4. vs TOLQ4 0:03 4th & 12 at TOL 46, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.2 pts
5. at NUQ4 14:14 4th & 2 at NIU 25, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
6. vs TOLQ4 14:52 4th & 15 at TOL 36, up 3Punted; the numbers favored a field goal−1.0 pts
7. at WMUQ2 11:16 4th & 1 at NIU 44, down 12Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at UNLVQ3 7:06 4th & 3 at UNLV 28, up 16Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

9th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Northern Illinois's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   PRES
2. W

   NU
3. W

   UNLV
4. L

   ARK
5. W

   KENT
6. L

   CMU
7. W

   M-OH
8. W

   EMU
9. W

   BALL
10. W

    TOL
11. W

    OHIO
12. W

    WMU
13. W

    BGSU
14. L

    MRSH

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Northern Illinois's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+2.32
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock+0.12
• Timeouts+0.03
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.68

Game by game

• PRESW 55-3 vs PRES99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +3
• NUW 23-15 at NU42% → 97%Before kickoff −8 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• UNLVW 48-34 at UNLV81% → 98%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +28, Clock +2
• ARKL 14-52 at ARK25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −27
• KENTW 17-14 vs KENT92% → 87%Before kickoff +42 · On the field −5: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts +1
• CMUL 17-34 vs CMU78% → 1%Before kickoff +28 · On the field −77: Scoreboard −65, Clock −2
• M-OHW 51-41 vs M-OH82% → 96%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +1
• EMUW 28-17 at EMU91% → 99%Before kickoff +41 · On the field +8: Scoreboard +17, Clock +1
• BALLW 35-21 at BALL60% → 99%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +46, Clock +2
• TOLW 27-24 vs TOL60% → 89%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +23, Timeouts +2
• OHIOW 21-14 at OHIO60% → 96%Before kickoff +10 · On the field +36: Scoreboard +45, Clock +3
• WMUW 31-21 at WMU28% → 95%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +68: Scoreboard +56, Clock +4
• BGSUW 51-17 at BGSU58% → 100%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +42: Scoreboard +46
• MRSHL 23-52 vs MRSH20% → 0%Before kickoff −30 · On the field −19: Scoreboard −25, Clock −1

Points of win probability, from Northern Illinois's side.

Closest call

NIU 55-14 AKR (2023) - Northern Illinois dropped to a 4.2% win probability before pulling it out.